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olivLaw · US equity research

Ferroglobe PLC GSM

Metal Mining · SIC 1000 · Vertical: Metal Mining (SIC 1000)

2.93USD−24.09% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Ferroglobe is one of the world's largest producers of silicon metal, silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloys, with operations on five continents. Sales fell sharply in fiscal 2025 as global oversupply and cheap imports pressured prices, which ties the company's performance closely to the metals cycle. The company reported a loss in 2025 after a small profit in 2024.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) stock was 2.93 USD (−24.09% on the day), with market capitalisation 547.5 m USD, dividend yield 1.91%, beta 0.98, 52-week range 2.93–5.45 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
547.5 m USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.91 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
-31.06%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
1.91%
DPS 12m 0.06
Beta (2y)
0.98
Volatility (1y) 64%
52-week range
2.935.45

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
23.2
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
3.43 – 4.52
below the lower band · %B -0.46 · band width 27.3%
SMA 50 / 200
4.13 / 4.21
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.15 / -0.07
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−33.1%−1.1%−32.0 pp—
3 months−29.4%−0.5%−28.9 pp—
6 months−38.1%+4.4%−42.4 pp—
Year to date−36.9%+12.3%−49.2 pp—
1 year−34.9%+13.5%−48.4 pp−9.4%
3 years−37.7%+76.4%−114.1 pp+102.6%
5 years−57.5%+63.7%−121.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−46.2%
11 Feb 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−68.7%
04 Mar 2022 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−15.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.2 bn1.6 bn1.1 bn1.8 bn2.6 bn1.7 bn1.6 bn1.3 bn
Revenue YoY+28.7%−28.0%−29.1%+55.4%+46.0%−36.5%−0.4%−18.8%
Net income43.7 m-280.6 m-246.3 m-110.6 m440.3 m82.7 m23.5 m-170.7 m
Net income YoYunavailable−742.7%unavailableunavailableunavailable−81.2%−71.5%−825.2%
Diluted EPS0.25-1.66-1.46-0.632.320.430.12-0.91
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−764.0%unavailableunavailableunavailable−81.5%−72.1%−858.3%
net %1.9%-17.4%-21.5%-6.2%16.9%5.0%1.4%-12.8%
Free cash flow10.7 m-63.6 m124.0 m-28.9 m352.9 m94.7 m167.1 m-10.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
122.8 m USD
Financial debt
140.0 m USD
Net debt
17.2 m USD
Equity
692.3 m USD
Total assets
1.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.20x
Current ratio
1.66x
ROE
-22.4%
ROA
-11.8%
FCF margin
-0.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2021verified

Gross profit
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2021derived

Operating income
2023
196.9 m
2024
38.2 m
2025
-133.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
73.5 m
2024
75.5 m
2025
85.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
270.5 m ≈
2024
113.6 m ≈
2025
-48.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
38.8 m
2024
21.9 m
2025
20.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
156.0 m
2024
37.1 m
2025
-174.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
57.5 m
2024
16.3 m
2025
2.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
82.7 m
2024
23.5 m
2025
-170.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.43
2024
0.12
2025
-0.91

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
190.3 m
2024
188.8 m
2025
188.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
—
2024
0.05
2025
0.06

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
136.5 m
2024
133.0 m
2025
122.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
310.2 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified

Inventories
2023
383.8 m
2024
347.1 m
2025
306.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.0 bn
2024
817.6 m
2025
733.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 01 May 2023verified

Goodwill
2023
29.7 m
2024
14.2 m
2025
12.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
138.3 m
2024
103.1 m
2025
132.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
183.4 m
2024
158.3 m
2025
144.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
31.6 m
2024
43.3 m
2025
79.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
14.9 m
2024
13.9 m
2025
60.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
494.0 m
2024
448.6 m
2025
441.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
869.9 m
2024
834.2 m
2025
692.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
187.9 m
2024
186.6 m
2025
186.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
178.4 m
2024
243.3 m
2025
51.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
83.7 m
2024
76.2 m
2025
61.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
94.7 m ≈
2024
167.1 m ≈
2025
-10.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-81.8 m
2024
-66.9 m
2025
-73.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-282.1 m
2024
-175.5 m
2025
3.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
—
2024
9.8 m
2025
10.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
2.4 m
2025
4.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-18.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-19.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-449.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-825.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-858.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-106.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
-10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
-12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
-0.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
-25.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
-11.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
-15.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
-13.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
17.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
-6.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
51.5 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
61.7 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
-10.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
547.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
564.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-31.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
0.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

2.93 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 547.5 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
547.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-25.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
-12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
-18.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 26 Mar 2026
verified 304derived 3

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
0.55
USD per share
Mid
0.65
USD per share
High
0.81
USD per share
Price: 2.93 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -77.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -347.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.36 – 0.99 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)0.36 – 0.64 (Mid 0.47)
    WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 7.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)0.73 – 0.99 (Mid 0.84)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Metal Mining (SIC 1000)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-15.3%18 (vs peers)21%
Net margin · Quality-12.8%42 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-19.9%0 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-6.4x0 (on a fixed band)13%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.7x72 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-1.9%0 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.8%40 (on a fixed band)13%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet29/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality27/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial40/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Ferroglobe PLC (GSM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -18.8%; net margin -12.8%; ROE -25.9%.

The estimated value range is 0.55–0.81 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.65 USD, the price of 2.93 USD leaves a potential of -77.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -347.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 1.7x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -15.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -19.9%
  • Interest coverage: -6.4x
  • FCF yield: -1.9%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Metal Mining (SIC 1000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 16.8x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 13.4x
P/S
0.4x
vertical median 7.9x
below median (−94.8%)
P/B
0.9x
vertical median 2.7x
below median (−66.2%)
ROE
-25.9%
vertical median -8.4%
below median
Net margin
-12.8%
vertical median 4.4%
below median (−389.4%)
EBIT margin
-10.0%
vertical median 16.6%
below median (−160.3%)
Revenue YoY
-18.8%
vertical median 9.0%
below median (−309.8%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.6x
Dividend yield
1.9%
vertical median 1.5%
above median (+23.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BHPBhp Group Limited406.8 bn45.219.5%17.6%−7.9%+46% / +31%
SCCOSouthern Copper Corp149.3 bn23.053.2%37.3%+17.4%+35% / +163%
RIORio Tinto PLC106.2 bn13.917.0%17.3%+7.4%+18% / +22%
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.89.9 bn29.221.8%16.2%+1.8%+46% / +68%
HBMHudbay Minerals Inc.8.8 bn15.419.7%25.7%+9.4%+31% / +388%
CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc.7.3 bn—-8.5%-2.4%−3.0%−2% / −25%
BVNBuenaventura Mining Co Inc7.3 bn18.112.6%34.9%+40.1%+16% / +202%
MPMP Materials Corp.6.4 bn—-4.1%-19.9%+10.1%−42% / +126%
EROEro Copper Corp3.2 bn12.234.6%33.6%+67.1%+21% / +150%
NEXANexa Resources S.A.1.6 bn11.914.6%4.4%+8.5%+70% / +103%
IEIvanhoe Electric Inc.1.2 bn—-8.4%-1,138.7%+11.8%−46% / −32%
USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.1.1 bn—-23.6%-2,159.3%unavailable−39% / −20%
TMCTMC the metals Co Inc.1.0 bn4.2-1,123.2%—unavailable−67% / +103%
USASAmericas Gold And Silver Corporation986.9 m—-61.6%-74.1%+17.7%−31% / +413%
ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.769.3 m79.07.0%12.2%+50.8%−15% / +746%
LARLithium Argentina AG682.1 m—-9.5%—+12.9%−24% / −21%
SGMLSigma Lithium Corporation626.1 m—-67.4%-45.6%−27.3%−50% / −81%
GSMFerroglobe PLC547.5 m—-25.9%-12.8%−18.8%−35% / −38%
ALOYRealloys Inc.459.5 m—-155.8%-5,144.4%−5.3%−5% / +68%
THMInternational Tower Hill Mines Ltd455.2 m—-2.8%—unavailable−10% / +222%
LZMLifezone Metals Limited336.9 m—-16.7%-1,289.2%+652.2%+1% / −60%
USAUU.s. Gold Corp.186.4 m—-55.2%—−30.9%−35% / +239%
PZGParamount Gold Nevada Corp.83.9 m—-46.1%—−54.7%−20% / +146%
WWRWestwater Resources, Inc.52.5 m—-19.1%—unavailable−57% / −33%
COPRIdaho Copper Corporation25.7 m—-187.5%—−63.5%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for GSM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (04 Aug 2026), 6-K (18 Jun 2026), 6-K (20 May 2026), 6-K (05 May 2026).

    In brief

    Ferroglobe is one of the world's largest producers of silicon metal, silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloys, with operations on five continents. Sales fell sharply in fiscal 2025 as global oversupply and cheap imports pressured prices, which ties the company's performance closely to the metals cycle. The company reported a loss in 2025 after a small profit in 2024 1.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company holds leading positions in silicon metal and alloys, backed by a diversified global production base 1.
    • Vertical integration and control of raw material sources give a cost advantage and supply stability 1.
    • Recovering and selling by-products lowers costs and environmental impact 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Sales fell significantly in 2025 and the company reported a loss, showing sensitivity to the cycle 1.
    • The company depends on a small number of large customers, increasing exposure to the loss of key orders 1.
    • High energy costs and accelerated depreciation at certain plants have pressured margins 1.

    Opportunities

    • If antidumping and safeguard measures hold, local producers could gain share in protected markets 1.
    • Demand from solar and electric vehicle battery markets could support higher value-added segments 1.
    • Rebalancing production between silicon and alloys could optimise costs as prices shift 1.

    Threats

    • Cheap imports from Asia and global oversupply may keep pressing prices in European and North American markets 1.
    • Tariffs and trade wars could disrupt supply chains and limit access to export markets 1.
    • Geopolitical conflicts and instability in Venezuela and the Middle East could affect operations 1.

    Risks

    • Cyclicality of the metals industryhigh

      Prices and demand in the metals industry are volatile, which can cause large swings in financial results 1.

    • Dependence on energy costshigh

      Energy is a major cost component, and price increases or supply disruptions could significantly reduce profitability 1.

    • Customer concentrationmedium

      A significant share of sales depends on a limited number of customers, and losing some of them could affect revenue 1.

    • Trade and tariff exposuremedium

      New tariffs and trade measures by the US, the EU and other states could affect results if they change market access 1.

    • High leveragehigh

      A high level of debt may make it difficult to service obligations, and a breach of financing covenants could lead to acceleration of debt 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If demand from automotive and construction recovers, volumes could return toward earlier levels and support revenue 1.
    • Trade protection measures in Europe and the US could ease pressure from cheap imports on prices 1.
    • A leading position in North American silicon metal and vertical integration could support margins over the longer term 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • If global oversupply persists, prices could remain under pressure and limit a return to profitability 1.
    • High energy costs and the EDF contract adjustments could continue to compress margins 1.
    • Debt and restrictions in financing agreements could limit the company's financial flexibility 1.

    What to watch

    • Evolution of silicon metal sales and pricesQ1 2027
    • Effect of EU safeguard measures on ferroalloy prices2027
    • Impact of EDF energy contracts on costs2027
    • Debt levels and compliance with financial covenantsnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (04 Aug 2026), 6-K (18 Jun 2026), 6-K (20 May 2026), 6-K (05 May 2026).

    The business

    Through its operating subsidiaries, Ferroglobe produces silicon metal, silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloys and controls a meaningful portion of its raw materials, including quartz mining in Spain, the United States, Canada and South Africa, and low-ash metallurgical coal mining in the United States 1. Its products are sold to a diverse base of customers in more than 40 countries, with the largest concentration in North America and Europe 1. The company captures, recycles and sells most of the by-products of its production, which reduces costs 1.

    Cost structure is largely variable, and the main raw materials are quartz, manganese ore, coal, metallurgical coke, wood and charcoal 1. Energy is one of the largest expenses, and the company shifts production between silicon metal and alloys to take advantage of energy prices 1. The company is incorporated in the United Kingdom and trades on Nasdaq under the symbol GSM 1.

    Ferroglobe reports as a foreign private issuer, filing a Form 20-F with the SEC and applying IFRS rather than U.S. GAAP 1. The company's history includes the 2015 combination of Ferroglobe Spain Metals and Ferroglobe USA and several asset sales in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023 1.

    Segments

    Silicon metal

    Silicon metal is the company's main sales segment and was the most affected in 2025, with revenue down 40.8% 1. The average selling price fell to $2,924 per tonne and shipments dropped 34.0% on weak demand 1. Management estimates the company holds about 25% of the global market excluding China 1.

    Manganese-based alloys

    Manganese-based alloys grew revenue in 2025, up 7.5%, although average selling prices eased slightly 1. The increase came from higher volumes, while imports from Asia continue to pressure the European market 1.

    Silicon-based alloys

    Silicon-based alloys saw a slight revenue decline in 2025 as average prices fell, partly offset by higher volumes 1. The segment reflects still-weak industrial demand in Europe and other key markets 1.

    Market context

    Ferroglobe's market in 2025 was marked by falling prices driven by cheap imports from global oversupply and demand uncertainty linked to tariffs 1. Demand from the automotive and construction sectors stayed weak, and prices in Europe and Asia converged due to Chinese competition, while the US retains a price premium 1. EU safeguard measures were finalised in Q4 2025, which could support ferroalloy prices if they hold 1.

    Several developments can influence margins: energy prices fell in Europe but rose in the US due to data centres, and remained high in South Africa 1. Coal and coke costs declined in 2025, reflecting adequate supply 1.

    Trends

    • Weak demand in automotive and constructionheadwind

      Lower demand from the automotive and construction sectors affected several of the company's products and contributed to lower volumes in 2025 1.

    • Cheap imports and global oversupplyheadwind

      Global oversupply, particularly from Asia and China, pressed prices in Europe and limited the company's sales 1.

    • Antidumping and safeguard measurestailwind

      Antidumping and countervailing duties imposed by the US and EU safeguard measures could shield local producers from subsidised imports if they remain in force 1.

    • Volatile energy costsmixed

      Energy prices vary sharply across regions, and contracts with EDF affected costs in 2025, including a negative effect from revaluing energy contracts 1. Energy developments remain both a risk and an opportunity for margins 1.

    Competitive position

    Ferroglobe competes with global silicon and alloy producers, including producers in China, India and other Asian countries, which exert pressure on prices 1. The company says it holds a leading position in North America for silicon metal and a significant share in European manganese alloys, but Chinese competition limits sales opportunities 1.

    The company's competitive advantage rests on vertical integration, proximity to raw materials and a diversified production base across several continents 1. However, pressure from lower-cost Asian competitors and subsidised imports remains a major factor for margins 1.

    • Chinese silicon and alloy producers

      Chinese producers compete through local production and aggressive pricing, limiting the company's sales opportunities in several markets 1.

    • Indian manganese alloy producers

      Indian producers were described as aggressive on pricing, which pushed manganese alloy prices lower in 2025 1.

    • Asian importers into Europe

      Excess Asian capacity was redirected into Europe, intensifying competition for European producers 1.

    • Other North American silicon producers

      In the North American market the company holds a large share, yet competition from other producers and imports remains relevant 1.

    News & filings

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.