olivLaw · US equity research
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. RGR
Ordnance & Accessories, (No Vehicles/Guided Missiles) · SIC 3480 · Vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx)
Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures and sells firearms, mainly rifles and pistols, to the U.S. commercial sporting market through independent distributors. In 2026 the company shows a sales recovery, but faces higher costs after its dispute with Beretta and variable market demand, with net sales for the first half of 2026 of 299.4 million USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) stock was 49.50 USD (−0.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 790.9 m USD, P/E 49.0 on diluted EPS of 1.01 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.89%, beta 0.49, 52-week range 28.81–50.10 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 147.6 m USD (+16.5% YoY), net income of 5.8 m USD (+266.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 41.18 – 50.32
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 20.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 42.49 / 39.88
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.38 / 1.26
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.4% | −5.9% | +19.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +30.9% | −4.6% | +35.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +26.5% | +0.2% | +26.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +51.6% | +7.4% | +44.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +12.9% | +8.2% | +4.7 pp | +7.8% |
| 3 years | +8.4% | +68.4% | −60.0 pp | +35.9% |
| 5 years | −32.5% | +56.5% | −89.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 26 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 145.8 m | 135.7 m | 132.5 m | 126.8 m | 151.1 m | 141.4 m | 158.1 m | 147.6 m |
| Cost of revenue | 112.6 m | 105.8 m | 127.3 m | 107.6 m | 124.1 m | 113.3 m | 124.3 m | 117.1 m |
| Gross profit | 33.2 m | 29.9 m | 5.1 m | 19.2 m | 27.0 m | 28.1 m | 33.7 m | 30.5 m |
| Operating income | 11.4 m | 8.5 m | -20.7 m | -3.5 m | 3.4 m | -1.9 m | 7.6 m | 6.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.1 m | 5.6 m | 5.6 m ≈ | 5.6 m ≈ | 6.2 m | 6.0 m | 6.4 m ≈ | 5.4 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 36.0 k | 16.0 k | 22.0 k | 17.0 k | 39.0 k | 22.0 k | 23.0 k | 117.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 13.0 m | 9.7 m | -19.4 m | -2.1 m | 4.6 m | -74.0 k | 8.9 m | 7.5 m |
| Income tax | 2.5 m | 2.0 m | -2.2 m | -3.7 m | 1.1 m | -202.0 k | 1.9 m | 1.7 m |
| Net income | 10.5 m | 7.8 m | -17.2 m | 1.6 m | 3.5 m | 128.0 k | 7.0 m | 5.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.62 | 0.46 | -1.05 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| Operating cash flow | 20.0 m | 11.1 m | 14.7 m ≈ | 12.9 m ≈ | 15.5 m | 18.8 m | 17.3 m ≈ | -11.8 m ≈ |
| Capex | 3.6 m | 1.1 m | 5.6 m ≈ | 5.9 m ≈ | 3.2 m | 4.8 m | 3.3 m ≈ | 890.0 k ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 1.8 m | 4.0 m | 2.9 m ≈ | 2.6 m ≈ | 638.0 k | 1.3 m | 1.8 m ≈ | 3.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 5.1 m | 3.0 m | 13.2 m ≈ | 10.0 m ≈ | 0 | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 92 percentile of its own 38-quarter history (min 7.7, median 18.7, max 333.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 495.6 m | 410.5 m | 568.9 m | 730.7 m | 595.8 m | 543.8 m | 535.6 m | 546.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | −5.1% | −17.2% | +38.6% | +28.5% | −18.5% | −8.7% | −1.5% | +1.9% |
| Net income | 50.9 m | 32.3 m | 90.4 m | 155.9 m | 88.3 m | 48.2 m | 30.6 m | -4.4 m |
| Net income YoY | −2.3% | −36.6% | +179.9% | +72.5% | −43.3% | −45.4% | −36.6% | −114.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.88 | 1.82 | 5.09 | 8.78 | 4.96 | 2.71 | 1.77 | -0.27 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −1.0% | −36.8% | +179.7% | +72.5% | −43.5% | −45.4% | −34.7% | −115.3% |
| net % | 10.3% | 7.9% | 15.9% | 21.3% | 14.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | -0.8% |
| Free cash flow | 109.3 m | 29.3 m | 119.6 m | 143.6 m | 49.5 m | 18.1 m | 34.7 m | 38.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 18.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 283.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 342.0 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.87x
- ROE
- -1.5%
- ROA
- -1.2%
- FCF margin
- 7.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 568.9 m | 730.7 m | 595.8 m | 543.8 m | 535.6 m | 546.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 377.4 m | 451.2 m | 415.8 m | 410.1 m | 421.2 m | 464.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 191.4 m | 279.6 m | 180.1 m | 133.6 m | 114.4 m | 81.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 8.0 m | 11.7 m | 9.6 m | 9.8 m | 8.2 m | 8.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 119.1 m | 203.1 m | 103.5 m | 52.1 m | 31.7 m | -12.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 27.6 m | 26.2 m | 25.8 m | 22.4 m | 22.1 m | 22.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 146.7 m ≈ | 229.3 m ≈ | 129.2 m ≈ | 74.5 m ≈ | 53.7 m ≈ | 10.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 191.0 k | 164.0 k | 256.0 k | 205.0 k | 102.0 k | 94.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 121.0 m | 206.6 m | 108.3 m | 58.8 m | 37.8 m | -7.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 30.6 m | 50.7 m | 19.9 m | 10.6 m | 7.2 m | -2.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 90.4 m | 155.9 m | 88.3 m | 48.2 m | 30.6 m | -4.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.09 | 8.78 | 4.96 | 2.71 | 1.77 | -0.27 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 17.8 m | 17.8 m | 17.8 m | 17.8 m | 17.3 m | 16.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 6.51 | 3.36 | 2.42 | 6.27 | 0.69 | 0.62 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 20.1 m | 21.0 m | 65.2 m | 15.2 m | 10.0 m | 18.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 57.9 m | 57.0 m | 65.4 m | 59.9 m | 67.1 m | 64.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 29.1 m | 43.9 m | 65.0 m | 79.8 m | 76.5 m | 42.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 234.4 m | 328.7 m | 361.8 m | 271.4 m | 258.4 m | 211.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 70.7 m | 73.6 m | 76.9 m | 71.5 m | 71.2 m | 80.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 825.0 k | 3.3 m | 3.3 m | 3.3 m | 3.3 m | 3.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | 348.3 m | 442.3 m | 484.8 m | 398.8 m | 384.0 m | 342.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 12.8 m | 12.2 m | 13.3 m | 31.7 m | 35.8 m | 34.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 81.8 m | 77.1 m | 163.1 m | 63.2 m | 60.8 m | 54.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 264.7 m † | 363.7 m † | 316.7 m † | 331.7 m † | 319.6 m † | 283.8 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 143.8 m | 172.3 m | 77.2 m | 33.9 m | 55.5 m | 54.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 24.2 m | 28.8 m | 27.7 m | 15.8 m | 20.8 m | 15.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 119.6 m ≈ | 143.6 m ≈ | 49.5 m ≈ | 18.1 m ≈ | 34.7 m ≈ | 38.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -43.9 m | -107.5 m | 13.2 m | 40.9 m | -13.8 m | -9.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -115.2 m | -63.9 m | -46.3 m | -124.8 m | -46.9 m | -36.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 113.9 m | 59.1 m | 42.7 m | 110.8 m | 11.8 m | 10.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 222.0 k | 11.8 m | 34.4 m | 26.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 52 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 790.9 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality65
- Growth0
- Balance sheet100
- Returns76
- Valuation25
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.15 – 28.54 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E16.99 – 28.54 (Mid 20.48)26 companies used · median multiple 20.3x · quartiles 16.8x – 28.3xACA, ACU, BALL, CCK, CR, CXT, EML, GFF, JBI, LCUT, MAS, MTRN, MWA, OFLX, PH, PKOH, PRLB, SLGN, SNA, SSD, SWK, TRS, VMI, WTS, XPEL, ZJK
- Dividend discount (DDM)8.15 – 10.96 (Mid 9.35)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 52/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.7% | 31 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 168.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 75.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 49.0x | 10 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.5% | 44 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.2% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 25.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality65/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns76/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation25/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
STURM, RUGER & COMPANY, INC. (RGR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-26.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 546.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.9%; net margin 2.7%; ROE 5.7%.
The estimated value range is 12.57–19.75 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 14.91 USD, the price of 49.50 USD leaves a potential of -69.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -232.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 52/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 168.5%
- Interest coverage: 75.1x
- Current ratio: 3.0x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 25.4%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.9%
- P/E (TTM): 49.0x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | 112.5 bn | 30.6 | 25.0% | 16.6% | +8.3% | +4% / +106% |
| AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc. | 31.1 bn | 158.5 | 6.2% | 6.2% | +33.5% | −29% / +66% |
| SNASnap-on Inc | 18.9 bn | 19.1 | 17.0% | 19.2% | unavailable | +8% / +33% |
| BALLBall Corporation | 17.4 bn | 33.7 | 9.6% | 3.5% | +11.6% | +35% / +21% |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 17.1 bn | 20.6 | 9.4% | 5.5% | unavailable | +61% / +27% |
| MASMasco Corporation | 16.2 bn | 18.2 | — | 12.1% | −3.4% | +29% / +38% |
| CCKCrown Holdings, Inc. | 13.2 bn | 17.0 | 26.7% | 5.8% | +4.8% | +26% / +42% |
| CRCrane Company | 11.4 bn | 34.0 | 16.2% | 12.4% | +8.2% | +8% / +87% |
| SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 8.1 bn | 21.5 | 18.3% | 15.6% | +4.5% | +19% / +19% |
| VMIValmont Industries, Inc. | 7.6 bn | 15.1 | 30.8% | 12.1% | +0.7% | −4% / +81% |
| ACAArcosa, Inc. | 7.3 bn | 14.9 | 17.9% | 17.9% | +12.2% | +46% / +116% |
| GFFGriffon Corporation | 4.6 bn | 26.1 | 185.4% | 6.5% | −3.9% | +37% / +120% |
| SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc | 4.4 bn | 16.8 | 11.0% | 3.9% | +10.7% | +5% / −0% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | 3.8 bn | 17.4 | 21.7% | 15.0% | +8.7% | +2% / +85% |
| MTRNMaterion Corporation | 3.7 bn | 36.3 | 10.5% | 4.6% | +6.0% | +45% / +57% |
| CXTCrane Nxt, Co. | 3.4 bn | 26.3 | 10.5% | 7.1% | +11.4% | +5% / +15% |
| HLMNHillman Solutions Corp. | 1.7 bn | 66.6 | 2.0% | 1.5% | +5.4% | −3% / +17% |
| PRLBProto Labs, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 44.2 | 5.1% | 6.0% | +6.4% | +24% / +74% |
| TRSTrimas Corporation | 1.4 bn | 1.6 | 83.9% | 136.2% | +2.4% | +11% / +48% |
| XPELXpel, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 20.3 | 19.5% | 10.8% | +13.3% | −14% / −12% |
| SMRNuscale Power Corporation | 1.0 bn | — | -13.0% | -6,817.0% | −15.0% | −78% / +58% |
| RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. | 790.9 m | 49.0 | 5.7% | 2.7% | +1.9% | +13% / +8% |
| JBIJanus International Group, Inc. | 650.8 m | 19.8 | 6.0% | 3.7% | unavailable | −23% / −55% |
| PKOHPark-Ohio Holdings Corp | 573.1 m | 16.1 | 9.0% | 2.0% | −3.4% | +85% / +74% |
| ACUAcme United Corp | 263.9 m | 28.9 | 8.4% | 4.6% | +1.1% | +86% / +91% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RGR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 27.53 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 48.86 Total return -0% · Per year -0% | 73.85 Total return 50% · Per year 50% |
| 3 years | 22.91 Total return -52% · Per year -22% | 46.10 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 77.03 Total return 59% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 19.06 Total return -59% · Per year -16% | 43.49 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 80.36 Total return 68% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 11.52
- Net margin± 8.07
- Annual revenue growth± 7.12
- Annual dilution± 0.68
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures and sells firearms, mainly rifles and pistols, to the U.S. commercial sporting market through independent distributors. In 2026 the company shows a sales recovery, but faces higher costs after its dispute with Beretta and variable market demand, with net sales for the first half of 2026 of 299.4 million USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- Recognized brand for rugged, reliable firearms, with U.S. plants and in-house components made through casting.
- Balance sheet with no financial debt, significant liquidity and capacity to invest in new products.
- Recent product launches increased the share of new-product sales and supported retailer demand.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a few large distributors means the loss or financial difficulty of one could have a significant effect.
- Gross margins fell in 2025 due to inventory write-offs, material costs and promotional spending.
- Administrative costs rose during leadership changes and reorganization, weighing on results.
Opportunities
- Demand for new products and expanded Hebron capacity could support sales in coming periods.
- The Ruger 2030 strategy and internal operating system could improve efficiency and long-term execution.
- Rebuilding finished goods inventory could improve product availability for customers and ease delivery pressure.
Threats
- Federal and state firearms legislation could restrict sales or raise compliance costs.
- Product liability litigation could generate significant costs if outcomes are unfavorable.
- Competitors offering aggressive promotions could reduce the company's market share.
Risks
- Regulation and legislationhigh
Legislative changes limiting capacity or the sale of certain firearms could reduce demand and complicate product distribution.
- Product liability litigationhigh
Lawsuits tied to accidents or criminal misuse of firearms could generate significant damages and pressure on reputation.
- Distributor concentrationmedium
Dependence on a small number of distributors means financial problems at one partner could quickly affect sales and collections.
- Raw material and component costsmedium
Price increases for steel, wood and other materials could compress margins if they cannot be passed on to customers.
- Production disruptionmedium
An incident at one of the critical plants could halt production and shipments for a period, with significant effects on results.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If retailer demand stays above NICS check levels, sales growth could continue and support margins.
- New products have grown their share of sales, which could support a stronger position in the mid-market segment.
- A debt-free balance sheet and operating cash flow could support investment and dividends without excessive financial strain.
What would break the thesis
- If legislation tightens, demand could fall quickly and recent investments could remain underused.
- Costs linked to governance conflicts and reorganization could persist and weigh on results in coming periods.
- If rivals keep up aggressive promotions, margins could stay under pressure and market share could decline.
What to watch
- Trend in net sales and gross marginQ3 2026
- Adjusted NICS checks and distributor sell-throughQ3 2026
- Pace of capital expenditure against the 2026 guidance2026
- Costs tied to the Beretta agreement and reorganization, and stability of the finance leadershipnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
The company designs, manufactures and sells firearms to U.S. customers, mainly in rifles, pistols, revolvers and shotguns, under the Ruger, Marlin and Glenfield brands. Firearm sales made up almost all revenue, while the castings segment supplies internal metal parts with negligible outside sales. Sales go through independent wholesale distributors, and three customers held large shares of firearm sales in 2025, so performance depends on a few partners.
Products are sold under the Ruger, Marlin and Glenfield brands, and the company also offers accessories and replacement parts. Plants in Newport, Prescott, Mayodan, Hebron and Earth City are central to production, and the Hebron facility was acquired in July 2025. The company also produces parts through investment casting and metal injection molding, which gives it control over component costs.
Ruger 2030 is the company's long-term strategic plan, and in 2026 the focus has been on operational efficiency, reorganization and new product launches. The new chief executive took over in March 2025, and in 2026 the company formalized an internal operating framework called the Ruger Business System.
Segments
Firearms
The firearms segment accounts for almost all sales, with rifles, pistols and revolvers as the main categories. In 2025 rifle sales rose while revolver sales fell sharply, and new products helped lift their share of firearm sales.
Castings and metal parts
The castings segment makes steel components through investment casting and metal injection molding, mainly for the company's own firearm production. Sales to outside customers are under 1% of total, so the segment's financial impact is small.
Market context
The U.S. commercial firearms market is competitive, with domestic and foreign makers competing on innovation, quality, brand and price. Demand is shaped by NICS background check volumes, which fell in 2025 and rose slightly in the first half of 2026. Sell-through to retailers grew faster than checks, suggesting demand supported by new products.
Demand depends on social, political and macroeconomic factors, and federal and state rules can significantly change the market. Competitors using aggressive promotions and extended payment terms could affect the company's market share if it does not maintain its pricing strategy.
Trends
- New product launchestailwind
New products made up a growing share of firearm sales, which could support margins and demand if launches continue to be well received. The risk is that the innovation cycle may not be fast enough to offset declines in other categories.
- Firearms policy and legislationheadwind
Stricter rules or bills limiting magazine capacity could reduce demand and complicate distribution. If legislation stays stable the impact could be limited, but uncertainty affects planning.
- Retail demand and channel inventorymixed
Sell-through to retailers growing faster than NICS checks suggests real demand, which could support production. However, channel inventory and backlog levels can quickly shift the balance between production and sales.
- Compliance and litigation costsheadwind
Product liability lawsuits and compliance requirements can raise administrative and insurance costs. If these costs grow faster than revenue, they could weigh on operating results in coming periods.
Competitive position
Competition in the firearms industry is intense, with many foreign and domestic manufacturers, some focused on one category and others present in several. Rivals use aggressive promotions, discounts and extended payment terms, which can pressure margins and Ruger's market share.
In investment casting and metal injection molding competition is numerous and includes larger firms with substantially greater financial resources. Ruger competes on quality, price and production lead time, while rivals may also use alternative methods such as wire EDM or CNC machining.
- Beretta Holding
Company that was party to a 2026 cooperation agreement with Ruger after a governance dispute, relevant as an industry actor.
- Foreign firearms manufacturers
Foreign makers competing in the U.S. commercial market on innovation, quality and price.
- Domestic firearms manufacturers
U.S. companies targeting the same sporting and self-defense customers with similar product lines.
- Investment casting and metal injection molding makers
Large casting and MIM firms, some with greater financial resources, competing on quality and lead time.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report16 Sept 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Item 3.03 · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report04 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report28 May 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. · 02 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.