Wargaming Handbook

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1. 01

   A wargame does not predict, it discovers: it shows what is plausible and where the plan gives way when someone genuinely opposes it.

   Wargaming Handbook · 2017

   A wargame shows what is plausible, not what is probable.

   The 2017 British handbook defines wargaming as a decision-making technique that offers structured but intellectually liberating, safe-to-fail environments — a place to find out what works and what does not, usually at low cost. At its core are the players, the decisions they take, the narrative they create, their shared experiences and the lessons they carry away. The handbook separates analytical, discovery wargames from training, learning ones; for analysis the first kind matters, from planning games to games that inform real executive decisions. The steps: frame the question (what you want to find out, not what you want to prove); choose the players, including a capable opposing side that is free to win; set the rules and an umpire who adjudicates the effects of moves; run the game, then conduct a rigorous post-game analysis. The handbook is explicit that wargames are not predictive and that a single run risks false lessons, which is why several games are played. It pays off when the adversary reacts to what you do — an interaction a static analysis cannot see. The trap is the game staged to confirm the plan, with an opponent who is not allowed to win.

   “Wargames can illustrate that something is plausible, but will not be able to definitively predict that it is probable.”

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