Module · Analyses
Analyses
In-depth analyses of the day's news: politics, economy, geopolitics, technology & AI and their impact on society — with forecasts for Romania, the EU, the US and the world. Written under I&W discipline, verified through macro-guard.
Single-company and BVB instrument analyses live on their own page: Company analyses → · The forecasts in the analyses are scored in public. See the record · The monthly forecasting tournament
Latest analyses
0.4% — the strikes on Yandex hit Russia's digital economy, but not the propaganda bots: what the data shows
Ukraine hit three Yandex data centres between 8 and 11 October, and a Cloudflare chart became the viral proof that pro-Kremlin, pro-Trump and pro-AfD bots had gone quiet. The chart measures the search engine's crawler, not fake accounts. What independent monitors and olivLaw's own measurement show, where influence networks actually live and where the real risk for Romania lies.
256,000 on the streets — France's high-school revolt: why it started, what pupils want and what comes next
Since 18 September, French high-school pupils have been blockading schools over missing teachers, run-down buildings, overheated classrooms and a university admissions system that left 18% of applicants without a place. 256,000 marchers on 6 October, more than 6,900 detentions, a minority government with no money and an election in the spring. The causes, the state's response, the Trocadéro clip, the lesson for Romania and three scenarios.
Geopolitics3
0.4% — the strikes on Yandex hit Russia's digital economy, but not the propaganda bots: what the data shows
Ukraine hit three Yandex data centres between 8 and 11 October, and a Cloudflare chart became the viral proof that pro-Kremlin, pro-Trump and pro-AfD bots had gone quiet. The chart measures the search engine's crawler, not fake accounts. What independent monitors and olivLaw's own measurement show, where influence networks actually live and where the real risk for Romania lies.
256,000 on the streets — France's high-school revolt: why it started, what pupils want and what comes next
Since 18 September, French high-school pupils have been blockading schools over missing teachers, run-down buildings, overheated classrooms and a university admissions system that left 18% of applicants without a place. 256,000 marchers on 6 October, more than 6,900 detentions, a minority government with no money and an election in the spring. The causes, the state's response, the Trocadéro clip, the lesson for Romania and three scenarios.
418 to 218 — the EU rewrites its expulsion rules: 29 states, centres outside Europe and a year of preparation
The European Parliament adopted the Return Regulation on 17 June 2026 and the Council approved it on 1 October, with 23 states in favour. Detention of up to 30 months, entry bans of up to 20 years, the European Return Order and centres in third countries. How many countries are affected, what triggered the vote, how Romanian MEPs voted and what it means for Romania, where 41% of orders to leave concern South Asian citizens.