Learning
Strategic and macro concepts
OODA, Black Swan, scenario planning, calibration, systems thinking, leading indicators, inflation regime, debt sustainability.
OODA Loop
Observe · Orient · Decide · Act — then recurse.
Black Swan
Low-probability, high-impact event, rationalised after the fact.
Scenario planning
Construct multiple plausible futures, not just one.
Second-order effects
And-then-what? The consequences of consequences.
Cascading failures
Coupled systems fail by chains, not by components.
Strategic dependency mapping
Shows who depends on whom — and where it breaks.
Horizon scanning
Detect weak signals before they become dominant.
Strategic foresight
Discipline for thinking systematically about the future.
Geoeconomics
Use of economic instruments for geopolitical objectives.
Systems thinking
Sees stocks, flows, feedback loops — not just events.
Escalation theory
How conflicts move from verbal to kinetic.
Confidence calibration
"70% probability" should actually happen in 70% of cases.
Historical analogs
"Which past event most resembles this one?"
Leading indicators
Variables that move ahead of the business cycle.
Sovereign risk
Probability that a state fails to honour its debt.
Currency stress
Pressure on the exchange rate from macro factors or capital flight.
Debt sustainability
Is debt repayable under current growth and rate conditions?
Inflation regime
Anchored low, drifting, or spiralling inflation?
Liquidity stress
Quality assets that can't be traded at fair price.
Business cycle
Expansion · Peak · Contraction · Recovery — and again.
Supply chain fragility
Cost-optimized chains become fragile under shocks.