How conflicts move from verbal to kinetic.
Body
Herman Kahn (RAND, On Escalation, 1965) defined the "escalation ladder" — 44 rungs from verbal crisis to total nuclear war. The concept remains valuable: each rung has thresholds, signals and de-escalation options. olivLaw tracks regional escalation (Black Sea, Balkans, hybrid cyber-kinetic) with discrete-step models.
Related
Methodology
Red teaming — adversarial challenge
Attack your own assumptions and forecasts from the adversary's perspective.
Strategic concept
Scenario planning
Construct multiple plausible futures, not just one.
Methodology
I&W — Indicators & Warning
Early detection of weak signals before strategic events unfold.