Early detection of weak signals before strategic events unfold.
Purpose
Systematically detect weak signals that precede financial instability, political escalation, sanctions, supply shocks or regulatory regime changes.
Body
I&W (Indicators & Warning) is the backbone of any strategic intelligence platform. Unlike passive monitoring, I&W defines the observable indicator set in advance — if they trip in combination, an impact event is likely to follow. olivLaw runs I&W methodology v2 with calibrated probabilistic scoring (logistic + Platt, AUC 0.64-0.88) and ICD 203 confidence language (almost certain / very likely / likely / roughly even / unlikely / very unlikely / almost no chance). Each indicator has a threshold, a source, an update cadence and a calibration history.
Core concepts
- Weak signal and amplification
- Escalation indicators
- Warning thresholds
- Probabilistic calibration (Platt scaling)
- ICD 203 confidence language
Use cases
- Sanctions risk
- Supply-chain stress
- Geopolitical escalation
- Regulatory shifts
- Financial instability
UI / implementation ideas
- Anomaly detection on time-series
- Trend divergence across sources
- Event clusters
- Threshold-based alerts
Related
ACH — Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Reduces confirmation bias by simultaneously testing every plausible explanation.
CRITIC alerts
Rapid escalation for high-impact intelligence.
Confidence calibration
"70% probability" should actually happen in 70% of cases.
Horizon scanning
Detect weak signals before they become dominant.