"70% probability" should actually happen in 70% of cases.
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A calibrated analyst is one whose stated probabilities match real event frequency. If you say "80% likely" but you're right only 50% of the time, you are overconfident. Techniques: Brier score, log loss, Platt scaling, isotonic regression, reliability diagrams. olivLaw I&W v2 uses Platt scaling for calibration, plus ICD 203 language; validation of the models on a held-out future period is in progress.
Related
Methodology
I&W — Indicators & Warning
Early detection of weak signals before strategic events unfold.
Methodology
Monte Carlo simulation
Model uncertainty as probability distributions, not as single scenarios.
Methodology
ACH — Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Reduces confirmation bias by simultaneously testing every plausible explanation.