Learning
2026 trends
Ten forces shaping strategic intelligence in 2026: AI-native orchestration, geoeconomic fragmentation, sovereign debt stress, energy and critical-minerals security, cognitive threats, climate-macro coupling, cyber-physical convergence, demographic cliff, strategic compute.
AI-native intelligence orchestration
Multi-agent planner + evaluator + HITL — going operational in 2026.
Explainable forecasting
Calibrated probabilities + ICD 203 language + calibration audit.
Geoeconomic fragmentation
Sanctions, export controls, friend-shoring, sovereign-AI.
Sovereign debt stress
Post-high-rate cycle: rollover, deficits, downgrades.
Energy & critical minerals security
Gas, uranium, rare earths, gold — the strategic-resource pivot.
Cognitive and hybrid threats
At-scale deepfakes, election interference, narrative warfare.
Climate-macro coupling
Insurance retreat, heat-driven productivity loss.
Cyber-physical convergence
OT attacks, supply-chain compromises, MFA fatigue.
Demographic cliff
EU and East Asia: labour, pensions, military recruiting.
Strategic compute and semiconductors
US-CN bifurcation, EU Chips Act phase 2, sovereign-AI.