Construct multiple plausible futures, not just one.
Body
The modern technique was developed at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s (Pierre Wack), which anticipated the 1973 oil shock not by forecast but by scenarios. Process: (1) identify driving forces, (2) rank by uncertainty × impact, (3) pick two key uncertainty axes, (4) build 4 scenarios (2×2 matrix), (5) test strategy against each. olivLaw runs probabilistically-weighted scenarios with I&W indicator verification.
Related
Methodology
Monte Carlo simulation
Model uncertainty as probability distributions, not as single scenarios.
Methodology
Premortem — assumed-failure analysis
Assume the plan has failed, then identify the causes before it begins.
Strategic concept
Horizon scanning
Detect weak signals before they become dominant.
Strategic concept
Strategic foresight
Discipline for thinking systematically about the future.