Assume the plan has failed, then identify the causes before it begins.
Purpose
Flips brainstorming logic: rather than asking "what could go wrong?", you say "it went wrong — why?". This reframing surfaces vulnerabilities that team optimism otherwise hides.
Body
The technique was popularized by Gary Klein (HBR 2007). In olivLaw, premortem runs on scenarios: before publishing a forecast, the virtual panel assumes the forecast turned out wrong six months later and produces the most likely explanations. These explanations become competing hypotheses (see ACH) and indicators to monitor (see I&W).
Core concepts
- Failure assumption
- Hidden vulnerabilities
- Strategic blind spots
- Mitigation planning
Related
Red teaming — adversarial challenge
Attack your own assumptions and forecasts from the adversary's perspective.
ACH — Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Reduces confirmation bias by simultaneously testing every plausible explanation.
Scenario planning
Construct multiple plausible futures, not just one.