"Which past event most resembles this one?"
Body
Foundational foresight technique: find historical analogs and use them as prior. Risks: cherry-picking, false analogies, availability bias. Good practice: extract 3-5 analogs with explicit similarity and difference reasoning, then weight. olivLaw retrieves analogs via embedding similarity over a historical corpus (1929, 1973, 1989, 1997, 2008, 2020, 2022).
Related
Strategic concept
Scenario planning
Construct multiple plausible futures, not just one.
Methodology
ACH — Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Reduces confirmation bias by simultaneously testing every plausible explanation.
Strategic concept
Strategic foresight
Discipline for thinking systematically about the future.