Is debt repayable under current growth and rate conditions?
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Fundamental identity: Δ(debt/GDP) = (r − g) × debt/GDP + primary deficit. If real rate (r) exceeds real growth (g), debt explodes at zero primary deficit. The IMF DSA framework extends with FX stress, contingent liabilities, demographics. Romania has persistent primary deficit + (r−g) > 0 → mounting pressure in 2026.