Expansion · Peak · Contraction · Recovery — and again.
Body
The cycle is not periodically regular but a sequence of regimes identified ex-post (NBER for US, CEPR for euro area). Regime indicators: real GDP, employment, wholesale sales, industrial production. Romanian cycles: 1997-99 (currency crisis), 2008-10 (Great Recession), 2020 (COVID), 2023-? (post-energy slowdown).