Forecasting tournament
Forecast Romania, one month at a time
Five to ten questions a month about Romania, each with a deadline, a criterion and a source. You give a probability; once the verdict is in, the Brier score shows how well you weighed it.
No round open right now
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Season leaderboard
0 finished rounds in the window of 12; you enter the table from 3 rounds played, each with at least 3 answers.
0 participants, 0 of them on the public leaderboard · 0 of 0 questions scored
No finished round yet. The season is built from rounds with every verdict in; you enter the table from 3 rounds played.
The rules
- A probability is a whole number between 1 and 99 %. You can change it until the question closes; the last one counts.
- The score is Brier: (p − outcome)², averaged over the resolved questions. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is “always 50 %”, 1 is confidently wrong.
- A question you left unanswered, in a round you played, counts as 50 %. Void questions do not count.
- The public leaderboard is opt-in only, under a pseudonym. Individual forecasts are not published: a score over a single question would be the forecast itself, so your score and place appear only after the round's last verdict, and only from 3 answers. Until then the table shows the pseudonym and the number of answers.
- The crowd's forecast (the median) appears only after the close, and only over at least 50 people.
- One month's table is noisy. The table that counts is the season: the last 12 finished rounds (every verdict in), from 3 rounds played, each with at least 3 answers.
- Erasing your account erases your forecasts and removes you from every leaderboard, past ones included, so other people's places may move.
- No prizes and no notifications. One account per person.
Rules in force: version 2026-10-04.1.