Module · Analyses
Analyses
In-depth analyses: sovereign rating, political cycles, systemic risk, geopolitics, financials. Written under I&W discipline, verified through macro-guard.
3 analyses · GEOPOLITICA
După Beijing — bilanțul celor 72 de ore Putin–Xi și concluziile reci pentru România
Luni am scris că Beijingul nu mai este o haltă, ci sala de așteptare a sistemului — și am lăsat cinci indicatori de urmărit în următoarele 72 de ore. Joi dimineață, după ce Putin a părăsit Beijingul, putem face inventarul: pe trei dintre cei cinci indicatori arhitectura s-a închis exact așa cum sugera vectorul de luni, iar pe doi a rămas deliberat ambiguă — ceea ce este, în sine, o decizie.
The Queue Forms at Beijing — Trump Has Been, Putin Goes Tomorrow. How Power Is Gravitating From Washington to Beijing (and What Is Holding It Back)
On Tuesday evening, 19 May 2026, Vladimir Putin lands in Beijing for a two-day state visit, accompanied by an elite economic delegation, approximately 40 documents prepared for signing, and a joint declaration on a "multipolar world." Five days earlier, Donald Trump had just left the same city, following a visit that concluded with a public warning from Xi Jinping about the "Thucydides Trap." The question is no longer whether the world is pivoting toward Beijing, but whether anyone can still stop it — and what leverage Romania has left.
Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire, Hormuz Reopened, Wall Street in the Green: Anatomy of a TACO Moment and How Sustainable It Actually Is
In 48 hours, three things happened that would normally define an entire year: a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon (brokered by Trump, April 16), Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz completely open (April 17), and Wall Street reaches all-time highs. A detailed analysis of the origins of the 2026 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the fragility of the ceasefire (violations reported within 24h), the TACO pattern (Trump Always Chickens Out), and scenarios for the coming days — including the probability of a weekend announcement that overturns the rally.