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olivLaw · European equity research

ASML Holding N.V. ASML.AS

Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · ISIN NL0010273215 · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands

1,385.00EUR−1.63% · 1 dayClose 03 Nov 2026

ASML designs and manufactures lithography systems used to make microchips and is the sole supplier of leading-edge EUV tools. The company closed 2025 with net sales of €32.7 billion, and demand driven by artificial intelligence keeps its role central to the industry.

At the close of 03 Nov 2026, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML.AS) stock was 1,385.00 EUR (−1.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 538.0 bn EUR, P/E 52.7 on diluted EPS of 26.26 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.47%, beta 1.66, 52-week range 834.00–1,721.40 EUR.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
538.0 bn EUR
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
52.7
Diluted EPS TTM 26.26 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
1.90%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.47%
DPS 12m 6.56
Beta (2y)
1.66
Volatility (1y) 43%
52-week range
834.001,721.40

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
38.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
1,348.73 – 1,628.23
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.13 · band width 18.8%
SMA 50 / 200
1,495.50 / 1,393.49
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-29.75 / -19.60
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyEURO STOXX 50vs EURO STOXX 50Vertical median
1 month−16.2%−1.0%−15.2 pp—
3 months−5.9%−3.9%−2.1 pp—
6 months+12.7%+7.2%+5.5 pp—
Year to date+50.3%+6.6%+43.8 pp—
1 year+49.5%+9.1%+40.4 pp−0.8%
3 years+131.7%+47.9%+83.8 pp+0.5%
5 years+91.0%+43.3%+47.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.9%
30 Jun 2026 → 29 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−48.4%
18 Nov 2021 → 14 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+13.8%
EURO STOXX 50 +7.5%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 31.4, median 32.6, max 35.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2022202320242025
Revenue21.2 bn27.6 bn28.3 bn32.7 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+30.2%+2.6%+15.6%
Net income6.4 bn8.1 bn8.3 bn10.2 bn
Net income YoYunavailable+26.9%+2.9%+22.3%
Diluted EPS16.0720.5921.2126.26
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+28.1%+3.0%+23.8%
net %30.2%29.4%29.5%31.3%
Free cash flow8.2 bn4.4 bn10.3 bn12.3 bn

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
12.9 bn EUR
Financial debt
4.4 bn EUR
Net debt
-8.5 bn EUR
Equity
24.2 bn EUR
Total assets
55.6 bn EUR
Debt / equity
0.18x
Current ratio
1.24x
ROE
44.2%
ROA
18.9%
FCF margin
37.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (EUR)

Margins

Income statement · EUR

Revenue
2023
27.6 bn
2024
28.3 bn
2025
32.7 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
13.8 bn
2024
14.0 bn
2025
15.7 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
13.8 bn
2024
14.3 bn
2025
16.9 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.6 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
9.5 bn
2024
9.9 bn
2025
12.1 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
152.7 m
2024
162.6 m
2025
118.3 m

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
9.6 bn
2024
10.0 bn
2025
12.2 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.2 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
8.1 bn
2024
8.3 bn
2025
10.2 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
20.59
2024
21.21
2025
26.26

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
394.1 m
2024
393.6 m
2025
388.9 m

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
5.96
2024
6.24
2025
6.56

esef· 04 Mar 2026derived

Balance sheet · EUR

Cash
2023
7.0 bn
2024
12.7 bn
2025
12.9 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
8.9 bn
2024
10.9 bn
2025
11.4 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
24.1 bn
2024
30.4 bn
2025
30.2 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
5.5 bn
2024
6.8 bn
2025
7.9 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
4.6 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
4.6 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
3.9 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
5.4 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
43.1 bn
2024
52.6 bn
2025
55.6 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
100.0 k
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.7 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
4.6 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
2.7 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
16.3 bn
2024
20.0 bn
2025
24.4 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
16.2 bn
2024
22.0 bn
2025
24.2 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
393.8 m
2024
393.3 m
2025
388.5 m

esef· 04 Mar 2026derived

Cash flow · EUR

Operating cash flow
2023
6.5 bn
2024
12.4 bn
2025
13.8 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
1.6 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
4.4 bn ≈
2024
10.3 bn ≈
2025
12.3 bn ≈

esef· 04 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.6 bn
2024
-3.7 bn
2025
-4.9 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-3.2 bn
2024
-2.9 bn
2025
-8.8 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.6 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.0 bn
2024
500.0 m
2025
6.0 bn

esef· 04 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
15.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
15.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
21.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
22.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
16.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
23.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
17.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
18.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
51.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
36.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
31.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
37.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
44.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
18.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
66.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
38.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
25.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Payout ratio (FCF)
20.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
-8.5 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
101.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
13.8 bn EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
1.6 bn EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
12.3 bn EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
120.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
259 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
538.0 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
529.5 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
52.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
52.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
22.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
16.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
43.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/Sales
16.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
43.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 72 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

1,385.00 EUR

03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 538.0 bn EUR

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
538.0 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
52.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
22.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
44.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
31.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: esefpublished 04 Mar 2026
verified 109derived 8

Score by group

  • Quality98
  • Growth100
  • Valuation26
  • Balance sheet75
  • Returns54

Estimated value range

Low
415.04
EUR per share
Mid
514.27
EUR per share
High
681.63
EUR per share
Price: 1,385.00 EUR
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -62.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -169.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 258.19 – 880.79 EUR.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (EUR per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)571.89 – 880.79 (Mid 690.72)
    WACC 8.5% · starting FCFF 12.4 bn EUR · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E258.19 – 482.48 (Mid 337.81)
    15 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 9.8x – 18.4x
    AALB.AS, ACOMO.AS, AD.AS, ADYEN.AS, AKZA.AS, ARCAD.AS, AXS.AS, BAMNB.AS, BNJ.AS, CRBN.AS, CTAC.AS, ECMPA.AS, FFARM.AS, HAL.AS, HAVAS.AS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate89.28 – 121.75 (Mid 103.02)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
3.0%
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
8.5%
Terminal growth
2.0%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 72/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality66.9%100 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality31.3%92 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality120.0%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth15.6%100 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth17.8%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet101.9x100 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x36 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation52.7x24 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation2.3%28 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.6%23 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns20.8%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet75/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality98/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation26/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

Memo

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 32.7 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 15.6%; net margin 31.3%; ROE 44.2%.

The estimated value range is 415.04–681.63 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 514.27 EUR, the price of 1,385.00 EUR leaves a potential of -62.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -169.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 72/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 66.9%
  • Net margin: 31.3%
  • FCF conversion: 120.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.6%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 17.8%
  • Interest coverage: 101.9x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 20.8%

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 52.7x
  • FCF yield: 2.3%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.6%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
52.7x
vertical median 16.6x
above median (+218.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 9.9x
P/S
16.5x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+2,048.6%)
P/B
22.2x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+995.2%)
ROE
44.2%
vertical median 4.3%
above median (+923.0%)
Net margin
31.3%
vertical median 1.9%
above median (+1,558.4%)
EBIT margin
36.9%
vertical median 3.9%
above median (+835.2%)
Revenue YoY
15.6%
vertical median 2.9%
above median (+429.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.1x
Dividend yield
0.5%
vertical median 2.7%
below median (−82.1%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ASML.ASASML Holding N.V.538.0 bn52.744.2%31.3%+15.6%+53% / +122%
ASM.ASASM International N.V.35.3 bn49.018.7%22.8%+8.2%+52% / +53%
DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG31.5 bn112.41.2%2.2%+20.4%+49% / +22%
AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.29.0 bn12.915.3%2.5%+3.4%−10% / +21%
ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V.26.1 bn24.622.3%40.1%+18.9%−38% / −23%
HAL.ASHAL Trust15.3 bn9.610.5%12.8%+1.2%+21% / +46%
EXO.ASExor N.V.15.0 bn—-10.6%—−100.0%+1% / −18%
BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V.12.4 bn94.028.7%22.3%−2.7%+20% / +22%
AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V.10.5 bn16.613.8%6.3%−5.2%+9% / −13%
AALB.ASAalberts N.V.4.7 bn26.17.2%5.7%−5.3%+53% / +17%
ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V.4.2 bn20.218.3%4.3%−2.4%+23% / +2%
BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V.3.4 bn13.7343.8%5.1%+1.6%−12% / −8%
BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V.3.4 bn42.49.1%1.3%+2.9%+49% / +407%
BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V.2.0 bn136.83.6%1.0%+16.9%+6% / +15%
HAVAS.ASHavas N.V.1.8 bn9.410.2%6.5%+1.7%+23% / unavailable
CRBN.ASCorbion N.V.1.6 bn8.327.3%14.9%+1.9%+39% / +55%
ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V.1.4 bn11.05.9%45.4%+4.2%−6% / +17%
FUR.ASFugro N.V.940.4 m—-1.5%-1.1%−18.8%−5% / −51%
ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V.677.0 m15.010.7%3.3%+7.6%−4% / +35%
FAST.ASFastned B.V.647.4 m—-28.2%-21.7%+66.1%+56% / +22%
FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V.502.6 m10.114.5%1.6%+14.8%+28% / +134%
BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V.380.6 m124.71.0%0.3%−10.8%−7% / −30%
ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V.227.0 m—-0.1%-0.0%−10.7%−1% / −77%
ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V.220.8 m—-12.7%-11.9%−20.8%−26% / +45%
CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V.192.5 m—-22.2%-1.5%−5.4%+23% / −30%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ASML.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (EUR)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
906.08
Total return -34% · Per year -34%
1,594.57
Total return 16% · Per year 16%
2,391.85
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
1,074.76
Total return -21% · Per year -8%
2,108.82
Total return 54% · Per year 16%
3,444.27
Total return 151% · Per year 36%
5 years
1,274.83
Total return -5% · Per year -1%
2,788.91
Total return 105% · Per year 15%
4,959.75
Total return 263% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 527.20
  • Net margin± 369.04
  • Annual revenue growth± 275.24
  • Annual dilution± 31.01

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

ASML designs and manufactures lithography systems used to make microchips and is the sole supplier of leading-edge EUV tools. The company closed 2025 with net sales of €32.7 billion 1, and demand driven by artificial intelligence keeps its role central to the industry.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company is the only maker of leading-edge EUV systems and offers a holistic portfolio of lithography, software and services 1.
  • Sustained investment in research and development supports innovation, and customer demand is strong in advanced segments 1.
  • The company has a consolidated customer base and high customer satisfaction, with a solid order backlog at the end of 2025 1.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue depends on a relatively small number of large customers, and a delay in one major project could weigh on quarterly results 1.
  • Leading-edge systems are costly and the sales cycle can be long, which makes revenue harder to forecast 1.
  • Reliance on a complex supply chain and specialised suppliers exposes the company to disruption 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand for artificial intelligence could expand customer capacity and raise the need for advanced lithography 1.
  • Advanced packaging and 3D integration open new market segments for the company's systems 1.
  • The partnership with Mistral AI could accelerate product development and improve operational efficiency 1.

Threats

  • Export restrictions and government controls could limit sales to certain markets, and rules can change quickly 1.
  • Trade tensions and restrictions on raw materials such as rare earths could disrupt production 1.
  • The cyclicality of the semiconductor industry could lead to a rapid drop in demand if customer investment slows 1.

Risks

  • Export controlshigh

    Changes to export rules in the Netherlands, the EU and the US could affect the volume, mix and timing of deliveries 1.

  • Rare earth restrictionsmedium

    China's rare earth rules could affect the supply of magnets used in systems, although mitigation measures are already in place 1.

  • Demand cyclicalitymedium

    Customer investment can be volatile, and a slowdown in demand for AI or chips could reduce orders 1.

  • Supplier dependencemedium

    The supply chain includes many suppliers, and problems at a critical supplier could delay deliveries 1.

  • Geopolitical tensionlow

    Geopolitical uncertainty can affect relations with customers in certain regions and the company's expansion plans 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If AI-driven demand holds, ASML could benefit from sustained growth in orders for advanced lithography 1.
  • Its dominant position in EUV and a solid order backlog could support revenue visibility over the medium term 1.
  • If High NA EUV reaches high-volume manufacturing, the company could enter a new growth phase 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Export restrictions could reduce access to certain markets, and the effect on sales could be significant 1.
  • The semiconductor industry is cyclical, and a cut in customer investment could quickly hit orders and margins 1.
  • If the cost of advanced systems does not fall enough, customers could postpone purchases or look for alternatives 1.

What to watch

  • Development of orders and backlog compared with the level at the end of 2025Q1 2027
  • Impact of export rules and the suspension of restrictions due in November 20262027
  • Pace of High NA EUV adoption in volume manufacturingnext 10-K
  • Evolution of memory prices and customers' capacity build-up2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

ASML has helped chipmakers since 1984 with holistic lithography solutions, software and services designed to help them achieve the highest yields and performance 1. The stated purpose is unlocking the potential of people and society by pushing technology to new limits 1. In 2025 the company spent €4.7 billion on research and development and reported a gross margin of 52.8% 1.

Segments

EUV and DUV lithography systems

EUV systems such as the TWINSCAN NXE:3800E are adopted by advanced Logic and DRAM customers, and 535 systems were sold in units during 2025 1. DUV systems are being developed with a growing focus on quality and cost efficiency 1.

High NA EUV and services

The High NA EUV system TWINSCAN EXE:5200B reached full specification at a customer, and customers had run over 400 thousand wafers on High NA systems by year end 1. The company also ships advanced packaging products such as the TWINSCAN XT:260 1.

Market context

The semiconductor market grew by more than 20% in 2025, driven mainly by AI server demand that exceeded supply 1. The company expects a 9% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, with a market that could surpass one trillion dollars by 2030 1.

Stronger demand for advanced Logic and DRAM favours ASML, since these segments are more lithography-intensive 1. Global wafer capacity growth could average 780 thousand wafer starts per month per year through 2030 1.

Trends

  • AI-driven demandtailwind

    Artificial intelligence has boosted demand for GPU chips and HBM memory, and the company expects this to continue 1. If DRAM and Logic integrate in new architectures, demand for advanced lithography could rise further 1.

  • Wafer bondingtailwind

    Wafer bonding enables 3D integration and more compact, energy-efficient chips, and ASML lithography systems provide the precision it requires 1. Adoption of this technique is rising across the industry 1.

  • Export controls and geopoliticsheadwind

    The Netherlands, the EU and the US have extended export controls, which could affect the volume, mix and timing of sales 1. China's rare earth rules are suspended until November 2026, but uncertainty remains 1.

  • Memory prices and capacitymixed

    Memory prices reached levels not seen in at least a decade, while capacity additions have been moderate since the 2023 correction 1. This combination could support industry revenue, though cyclicality remains a factor 1.

Competitive position

ASML holds a dominant position in EUV lithography, where direct competition is very limited, according to its annual report 1. Competition is more visible in DUV systems and emerging technologies such as multibeam electron lithography, where the company has stepped up its efforts 1.

Customers are chipmakers producing in integrated device manufacturers or foundries, and equipment choices depend on productivity, cost and technical support 1. The company aims to build long-term relationships with these customers 1.

  • Canon

    Lithography equipment supplier that may compete in some DUV segments, based on general industry context rather than the source provided.

  • Nikon

    Lithography equipment maker active mainly in more mature segments, without quantitative detail in the source provided.

  • Applied MaterialsAMAT

    Chip equipment supplier active in areas adjacent to lithography, without figures in the source provided.

  • Lam ResearchLRCX

    Wafer processing equipment supplier that may compete indirectly for customer capital budgets.

News & filings

In the press

Annual reports (ESEF)

Sources

  1. [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ASML Holding N.V. · 31 Dec 2025

Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML.AS): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw