olivLaw · European equity research
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. ECMPA.AS
Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is a specialist investor in prime shopping centres in Italy, France, Sweden and Belgium, with a portfolio of 24 assets valued at over 4 billion EUR. For 2026 the company guides to a direct investment result of 2.45 to 2.50 EUR per share, in a context of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA.AS) stock was 25.00 EUR (+1.01% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.4 bn EUR, P/E 11.0 on diluted EPS of 2.28 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.26%, beta 0.51, 52-week range 24.75–29.15 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 24.81 – 26.26
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.13 · band width 5.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 26.27 / 26.91
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.28 / -0.24
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.5% | −1.0% | −1.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.0% | −3.9% | −7.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.1% | +7.2% | −16.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.0% | +6.6% | −10.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.7% | +9.1% | −12.7 pp | +0.9% |
| 3 years | +12.7% | +47.9% | −35.2 pp | +0.5% |
| 5 years | +22.1% | +43.3% | −21.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 6.7, median 9.1, max 11.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 256.9 m | 263.1 m | 274.2 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +2.4% | +4.2% |
| Net income | -26.9 m | 176.8 m | 124.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −29.7% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.51 | 3.29 | 2.28 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −30.7% |
| net % | -10.5% | 67.2% | 45.4% |
| Free cash flow | 115.7 m | 101.3 m | 117.5 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 67.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.6 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 1.5 bn EUR
- Equity
- 2.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 4.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.73x
- Current ratio
- 0.20x
- ROE
- 5.9%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- 42.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 256.9 m | 263.1 m | 274.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 73.3 m | 287.4 m | 254.8 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -17.2 m | 215.2 m | 210.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 8.9 m | 38.4 m | 85.8 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -26.9 m | 176.8 m | 124.4 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.51 | 3.29 | 2.28 | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | 53.8 m | 54.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.41 | 1.33 | 1.32 | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 40.5 m | 36.0 m | 67.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 68.9 m | 45.7 m | 47.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 112.0 m | 87.6 m | 120.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.8 m | 6.4 m | 6.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 233.6 m | 128.7 m | 484.9 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 346.1 m | 226.6 m | 599.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 52.7 m | 53.6 m | 54.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 117.0 m | 102.1 m | 119.3 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.3 m | 817.0 k | 1.8 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 115.7 m ≈ | 101.3 m ≈ | 117.5 m ≈ | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -98.7 m | -31.0 m | -23.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -42.6 m | -75.0 m | -64.4 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 74.2 m | 71.0 m | 71.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 16.0 m | 0 | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
56% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.89 – 51.07 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E22.42 – 51.07 (Mid 31.21)15 companies used · median multiple 13.7x · quartiles 9.8x – 22.4xAALB.AS, ACOMO.AS, AD.AS, ADYEN.AS, AKZA.AS, ARCAD.AS, ASM.AS, AXS.AS, BAMNB.AS, BNJ.AS, CRBN.AS, CTAC.AS, FFARM.AS, HAL.AS, HAVAS.AS
- Dividend discount (DDM)17.89 – 24.40 (Mid 20.64)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.1% | 42 (vs peers) | 19% |
| Net margin · Quality | 45.4% | 97 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 94.4% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.0x | 71 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.3% | 75 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 60.6% | 85 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns79/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 274.2 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 4.2%; net margin 45.4%; ROE 5.9%.
The estimated value range is 20.15–37.73 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 25.93 EUR, the price of 25.00 EUR leaves a potential of 3.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 3.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 45.4%
- FCF conversion: 94.4%
- P/E (TTM): 11.0x
- FCF yield: 8.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 60.6%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.2x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML.ASASML Holding N.V. | 538.0 bn | 52.7 | 44.2% | 31.3% | +15.6% | +53% / +122% |
| ASM.ASASM International N.V. | 35.3 bn | 49.0 | 18.7% | 22.8% | +8.2% | +52% / +53% |
| DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG | 31.5 bn | 112.4 | 1.2% | 2.2% | +20.4% | +49% / +22% |
| AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. | 29.0 bn | 12.9 | 15.3% | 2.5% | +3.4% | −10% / +21% |
| ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V. | 26.1 bn | 24.6 | 22.3% | 40.1% | +18.9% | −38% / −23% |
| HAL.ASHAL Trust | 15.3 bn | 9.6 | 10.5% | 12.8% | +1.2% | +21% / +46% |
| EXO.ASExor N.V. | 15.0 bn | — | -10.6% | — | −100.0% | +1% / −18% |
| BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | 12.4 bn | 94.0 | 28.7% | 22.3% | −2.7% | +20% / +22% |
| AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V. | 10.5 bn | 16.6 | 13.8% | 6.3% | −5.2% | +9% / −13% |
| AALB.ASAalberts N.V. | 4.7 bn | 26.1 | 7.2% | 5.7% | −5.3% | +53% / +17% |
| ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V. | 4.2 bn | 20.2 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.4% | +23% / +2% |
| BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V. | 3.4 bn | 13.7 | 343.8% | 5.1% | +1.6% | −12% / −8% |
| BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V. | 3.4 bn | 42.4 | 9.1% | 1.3% | +2.9% | +49% / +407% |
| BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V. | 2.0 bn | 136.8 | 3.6% | 1.0% | +16.9% | +6% / +15% |
| HAVAS.ASHavas N.V. | 1.8 bn | 9.4 | 10.2% | 6.5% | +1.7% | +23% / unavailable |
| CRBN.ASCorbion N.V. | 1.6 bn | 8.3 | 27.3% | 14.9% | +1.9% | +39% / +55% |
| ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V. | 1.4 bn | 11.0 | 5.9% | 45.4% | +4.2% | −6% / +17% |
| FUR.ASFugro N.V. | 940.4 m | — | -1.5% | -1.1% | −18.8% | −5% / −51% |
| ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V. | 677.0 m | 15.0 | 10.7% | 3.3% | +7.6% | −4% / +35% |
| FAST.ASFastned B.V. | 647.4 m | — | -28.2% | -21.7% | +66.1% | +56% / +22% |
| FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V. | 502.6 m | 10.1 | 14.5% | 1.6% | +14.8% | +28% / +134% |
| BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V. | 380.6 m | 124.7 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −10.8% | −7% / −30% |
| ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V. | 227.0 m | — | -0.1% | -0.0% | −10.7% | −1% / −77% |
| ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V. | 220.8 m | — | -12.7% | -11.9% | −20.8% | −26% / +45% |
| CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V. | 192.5 m | — | -22.2% | -1.5% | −5.4% | +23% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ECMPA.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 14.87 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 26.28 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 39.60 Total return 65% · Per year 65% |
| 3 years | 14.35 Total return -30% · Per year -11% | 28.55 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 47.24 Total return 111% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 13.85 Total return -24% · Per year -5% | 31.01 Total return 54% · Per year 9% | 56.35 Total return 165% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 7.14
- Net margin± 5.00
- Annual revenue growth± 4.11
- Annual dilution± 0.42
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is a specialist investor in prime shopping centres in Italy, France, Sweden and Belgium, with a portfolio of 24 assets valued at over 4 billion EUR 1. For 2026 the company guides to a direct investment result of 2.45 to 2.50 EUR per share, in a context of geopolitical and economic uncertainty 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The portfolio is diversified by country and asset type, which reduces exposure to any single market.
- Leverage is prudent, and management reports a net LTV below the group covenant level.
- Tenants have reported rising sales and a falling occupancy cost ratio, which supports space affordability.
Weaknesses
- Indexation-driven rent growth is more modest because of low inflation, which limits income from indexation.
- Remerchandising can cause temporary vacancy in some centres.
- Funding relies mainly on secured bank mortgage loans, which makes the company sensitive to credit conditions.
Opportunities
- The acquisition of the Avion centre in Sweden after year-end 2025 could strengthen the presence in that country.
- Asset rotation and reinvesting capital could raise portfolio returns.
- Internal growth projects added to the pipeline could add income as they mature.
Threats
- Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty could reduce consumer demand in the company's catchments.
- Regulatory changes on sustainability and green finance may alter compliance costs.
- Higher financing costs could weigh on margins if future refinancings occur on harder terms.
Risks
- Exposure to macroeconomic conditionsmedium
Consumer demand and indexation depend on the economies of the four countries, and a deterioration could hurt income.
- Geopolitical riskmedium
Management notes that geopolitical tensions persist, which can influence retailer and consumer confidence.
- Refinancing and debt costlow
The company relies on secured bank loans, and the next major refinancing is expected later, which lowers near-term risk.
- Concentration in a few assetsmedium
Five flagship assets carry a large share of portfolio value, so a problem at one of them could have a significant effect.
- Sustainability regulationlow
Changes to reporting rules and environmental requirements may raise costs or the complexity of reporting.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for dominant centres stays robust, rental income could keep growing through renewals and relettings.
- A prudent leverage level and a comfortable hedging position could give flexibility through economic cycles.
- The Avion acquisition could strengthen the Swedish position and add external growth.
What would break the thesis
- If geopolitical tensions worsen, consumer demand and rental income could fall more than expected.
- Indexation is more modest, so income growth may depend more on remerchandising activity.
- Concentration in a few flagship assets could amplify the impact of a local problem.
What to watch
- Direct investment result per share against the guidance range2026
- Like-for-like sales and rent growth in Italy and SwedenQ1 2027
- Net LTV level and interest cover ratios2027
- Timing of the next major debt refinancing2029
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Eurocommercial Properties creates, owns and actively manages shopping centres where retailers build their brands, combining retail, services and leisure for local communities 1. The company focuses on dominant assets in areas with strong purchasing power and earns most of its revenue from leasing retail space 1. Its model rests on careful acquisitions, active asset management, remerchandising and prudent financing through asset-level mortgage loans 1.
Segments
Market context
The company operates in Italy, France, Sweden and Belgium and argues that scarcity of prime space is supported by restrictions on new retail development across many European markets 1. Like-for-like retail sales rose 3.4% in 2025, with growth in every market, and like-for-like rents also rose 3.4% 1.
Trends
- Retailers favouring dominant locationstailwind
Retailers increasingly prioritise fewer, larger and higher-quality stores in dominant locations, which fits the company's portfolio 1. This could support demand for quality assets if the trend holds.
- Limited new retail supplytailwind
Restrictions on new retail developments across many European markets limit future supply and may increase the scarcity of existing prime assets 1. The effect depends on demand and on regulatory changes.
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertaintyheadwind
Management says geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainty persist, although consumer demand has so far remained stable 1. If conditions deteriorate, indexation and rental income could be affected.
- Sustainability reporting obligationsmixed
The company has said that, after regulatory developments, it will no longer be subject to CSRD reporting, but it remains committed to its ESG strategy 1. Compliance costs could be lower, though investor pressure on ESG disclosure remains.
Competitive position
The company competes with other shopping centre operators and European retail property owners for tenants and dominant assets. The supplied sources do not name specific competitors, so their positioning cannot be detailed.
- Other European shopping centre operators
The reviewed sources do not name specific competitors, so this profile is limited to the general European shopping centre market.
- Regional retail developers and investors
Competition comes from retail assets in regional cities, where the company's suburban centres are located.
- International retailers seeking prime locations
These retailers are both customers and competitors for dominant space in the company's centres.
- Hypermarket chains
Hypermarkets anchor part of the portfolio but can also compete with centres for shopper traffic.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202521 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202417 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202417 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Eurocommercial Properties N.V. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.