olivLaw · European equity research
Avio S.p.A. AVIO.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0005119810 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Avio S.p.A. is a European space group specialized in propulsion for launchers and space systems. In fiscal 2025 it reported Adjusted EBIT of 14460 thousand euro, equal to 2.7% of net revenues, and after its year-end capital increase it holds a net cash position of 591710 thousand euro, which makes its progress relevant in the context of launcher programs.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Avio S.p.A. (AVIO.MI) stock was 30.38 EUR (−6.38% on the day), with market capitalisation 909.3 m EUR, P/E 89.4 on diluted EPS of 0.34 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.95, 52-week range 23.90–43.86 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 27.74 – 33.29
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.48 · band width 18.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 29.61 / 32.68
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.64 / 0.58
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.8% | −1.5% | +2.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.7% | −5.3% | +2.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.3% | +4.7% | −10.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.5% | +6.0% | −2.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.9% | +8.2% | −6.2 pp | −5.8% |
| 3 years | +300.8% | +47.2% | +253.6 pp | +6.7% |
| 5 years | +156.6% | +41.8% | +114.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 33.8, median 60.4, max 86.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 343.7 m | 480.4 m | 583.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +39.8% | +21.5% |
| Net income | 6.5 m | 6.1 m | 10.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −6.2% | +72.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −8.0% | +47.8% |
| net % | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
| Free cash flow | 19.2 m | 37.2 m | 140.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 601.8 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 0 EUR
- Net debt
- -601.8 m EUR
- Equity
- 708.5 m EUR
- Total assets
- 1.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 2.1%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- 24.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 343.7 m | 480.4 m | 583.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 5.2 m | 8.4 m | 12.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 15.3 m | 17.4 m | 20.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 20.5 m ≈ | 25.8 m ≈ | 32.3 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.5 m | 2.3 m | 1.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 6.6 m | 6.8 m | 13.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 17.0 k | 378.3 k | 1.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 6.5 m | 6.1 m | 10.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.34 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 95.6 m | 101.7 m | 601.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.9 m | 3.1 m | 5.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 529.5 m | 597.0 m | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 155.9 m | 173.3 m | 193.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 62.8 m | 62.8 m | 62.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 126.2 m | 128.8 m | 134.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 10.0 m | 2.0 m | 0 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 627.7 m | 728.1 m | 895.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 744.8 m | 779.5 m | 955.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 310.4 m | 312.9 m | 708.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 25.0 m | 25.4 m | 29.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 42.5 m | 60.3 m | 168.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 23.2 m | 23.1 m | 27.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 19.2 m ≈ | 37.2 m ≈ | 140.3 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -38.9 m | -35.2 m | -44.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -39.4 m | -19.0 m | 376.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 56 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 909.3 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Valuation42
- Quality56
- Returns0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.19 – 146.69 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)101.38 – 146.69 (Mid 118.84)WACC 8.5% · starting FCFF 141.3 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA24.82 – 30.48 (Mid 28.97)6 companies used · median multiple 8.2x · quartiles 4.4x – 9.6xASC.MI, BAN.MI, COM.MI, DEX.MI, DLG.MI, ELC.MI
- Peers: P/E2.19 – 9.48 (Mid 4.67)21 companies used · median multiple 13.7x · quartiles 6.4x – 27.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI, ELN.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 56/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.6% | 46 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.8% | 28 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 1,339.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -18.7x | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 89.4x | 5 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 9.5x | 33 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 15.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation42/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AVIO S.P.A. (AVIO.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 583.7 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 21.5%; net margin 1.8%; ROE 2.1%; net debt/EBITDA -18.7x.
The estimated value range is 24.82–30.48 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 28.97 EUR, the price of 30.38 EUR leaves a potential of -4.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -4.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 1,339.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -18.7x
- Interest coverage: 11.5x
- FCF yield: 15.4%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 1.8%
- P/E (TTM): 89.4x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Current ratio, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.7 bn | 21.3 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +22% / +58% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +72% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.4 bn | 28.8 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +33% / −5% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 3.0 bn | 40.9 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +7% / +14% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.6 bn | 29.1 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −11% / −59% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 31.4 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +31% / +79% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.9 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +15% / +114% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 19.1 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +11% / +68% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.7 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −21% / −61% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 986.3 m | 10.6 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −3% / −22% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 909.3 m | 89.4 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +22% / +302% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 799.2 m | 6.1 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +6% / +75% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 639.9 m | 17.9 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −9% / +31% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 408.7 m | 19.4 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −7% / +7% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 345.1 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −31% / +4% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 319.0 m | 12.8 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −3% / +10% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 290.6 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +29% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 130.1 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 119.8 m | 11.8 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −25% / −31% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.3 m | 277.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.0 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −49% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 34.4 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −11% / +102% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 11.7 m | 0.6 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −52% / −84% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AVIO.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 20.44 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 35.96 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 53.95 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 24.24 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 47.56 Total return 57% · Per year 16% | 77.68 Total return 156% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 28.75 Total return -5% · Per year -1% | 62.90 Total return 107% · Per year 16% | 111.86 Total return 268% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 11.89
- Net margin± 8.32
- Annual revenue growth± 6.21
- Annual dilution± 0.70
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Avio S.p.A. is a European space group specialized in propulsion for launchers and space systems. In fiscal 2025 it reported Adjusted EBIT of 14460 thousand euro, equal to 2.7% of net revenues, and after its year-end capital increase it holds a net cash position of 591710 thousand euro, which makes its progress relevant in the context of launcher programs.1
SWOT
Strengths
- Consolidated position in European space propulsion programs and a specialized technology base.
- Net cash position after the capital increase at the end of 2025, providing financial flexibility.
- Long-term contracts with customer advances, supporting visibility of activity.
Weaknesses
- Modest operating margins relative to revenues, with Adjusted EBIT small compared with the size of activity.
- High dependence on a limited number of government customers and specific programs.
- Strongly negative net working capital, sensitive to the timing of collections and deliveries.
Opportunities
- Rising demand for space access could open new propulsion contracts.
- Expansion in the United States could facilitate access to American customers and programs.
- Investment in avionics and new engines could diversify revenue sources.
Threats
- Delays in launcher programs could affect the timing of collections and results.
- Competition from larger global groups could reduce market share.
- Changes in space policy or budgets could alter the volume of government orders.
Risks
- Return-to-flight riskshigh
Technical and financial risks linked to launcher programs can generate additional provisions and billing delays.
- Customer concentrationhigh
Dependence on a few government customers could amplify the impact of a program or budget change.
- Working capitalmedium
Changes in customer advances and deliveries can materially change operating cash flow.
- Capital investmentmedium
Building the new US facility involves costs that could pressure margins before generating revenue.
- Tax matterslow
Tax disputes over the amortization of older goodwill and legislative changes can influence net income.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for space access keeps growing, the group could convert existing contracts into revenue and higher margins more efficiently.
- The net cash position could provide flexibility for investment in technology and productive capacity.
- Diversification toward avionics and new engines could reduce dependence on a single program.
What would break the thesis
- Operating margins remain modest, and if non-recurring items persist, results could stay below expectations.
- Concentration on a few customers and program delays could produce volatility in collections.
- Investment in the United States and in new technologies could consume cash before generating returns.
What to watch
- Evolution of Adjusted EBIT and margin versus 20252026
- Timing of the Vega C return to flight and the impact on provisions2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Avio group develops and produces solid and liquid propulsion systems for space launchers and aviation systems, working mainly through European space access programs. According to the fiscal 2025 annual report, the group also includes international subsidiaries, including a US company set up for investments in new production facilities.1
The business model relies on long-term contracts with government and industrial customers, where advance payments from customers generate negative net working capital. The report shows contract work in progress net of advances reached 518064 thousand euro at 31 December 2025.1
Profitability remains modest relative to revenues, with Adjusted EBITDA of 34755 thousand euro in 2025, up from the prior year, and part of the result is affected by non-recurring items linked to risks and programs.1
Segments
Launcher propulsion
This segment covers engines and propulsion elements for European launchers, where the group runs development and production activities. Investment in new engines was an important part of technology development in 2025.1
Aviation and avionics
The group produces engine components and avionics elements for civil and military aviation. The report mentions investment in designing and building new avionics components during fiscal 2025.1
Market context
The space access market is dominated by government programs and a small number of suppliers, and demand depends on launch schedules and long-term contracts. In a climate of rising space investment, the group's activity could benefit from higher demand for propulsion, but also from high dependence on a few large customers.1
Civil and military aviation forms the second relevant market, with demand for engine components and avionics. Developments in this market depend on the production cycles of aircraft and engine manufacturers.1
Trends
- Rising investment in space accesstailwind
European and national launcher programs create demand for propulsion, which could support the group's order volumes. The effect, however, depends on the actual timing of contracts.
- Delays in launcher programsheadwind
Risks linked to the return to flight of certain launchers could delay payments and deliveries, affecting working capital. The report mentions provisions accumulated for such risks.
- Expansion of productive capacity in the United Statesmixed
Investment in the new US facility could increase capacity and access to American customers, but involves significant capital expenditure during the construction period.
- Personnel costs and restructuringmixed
Settlement agreements and personnel costs rose in 2025 and affected the result through non-recurring items. If these costs stabilize, operating margin could develop more favorably.
Competitive position
The group competes with other engine and propulsion producers for launchers, mainly in Europe and the United States, where access to contracts depends on technological capability and relations with space agencies. The competitive position is also shaped by the fact that many programs are supported by government frameworks.1
In aviation, competition comes from global suppliers of engine components and avionics, which have greater scale. Avio differentiates itself through specialization in certain technologies and proximity to European programs.1
- ArianeGroup
European propulsion and launcher competitor with close activity in space access programs.
- Aerojet Rocketdyne
US propulsion producer for space and defense, present in the same categories of programs.
- Safran
European group active in aviation engines and equipment, competing in engine components.
- Rolls-Royce
Global aviation engine producer, competing in certain component and service segments.
News & filings
In the press
- ► Lockheed Martin and Avio announce strategic cooperation agreement for solid rocket motor productionEuropean Defence Review · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Avio S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.