olivLaw · European equity research
Bavarian Nordic A/S BAVA.CO
Denmark · Nasdaq Copenhagen · ISIN DK0015998017 · Vertical: Listed companies from Denmark
Bavarian Nordic is a Danish vaccine company active in travel health (for example Rabipur/RabAvert against rabies) and public preparedness, with the JYNNEOS vaccine against mpox and smallpox. In the first half of 2026 revenue reached DKK 3,092 million, and full-year guidance was raised to approximately DKK 5,700 million, so the company's trajectory increasingly depends on government contracts.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.CO) stock was 245.40 DKK (−0.57% on the day), with market capitalisation 19.2 bn DKK, P/E 13.9 on diluted EPS of 17.60 DKK over the last 12 months, beta 0.66, 52-week range 172.50–256.20 DKK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 232.16 – 256.40
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 9.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 226.03 / 197.99
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 6.92 / 8.23
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.7% | +0.4% | +10.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +40.2% | −3.3% | +43.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +29.6% | +4.0% | +25.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +28.6% | +8.1% | +20.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +4.0% | +10.7% | −6.7 pp | −7.7% |
| 3 years | +72.0% | +50.1% | +21.9 pp | −0.6% |
| 5 years | −15.4% | +43.6% | −59.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 10.8, median 10.8, max 10.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable |
| Net income | 1.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 17.60 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable |
| net % | 22.0% |
| Free cash flow | 2.5 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.7 bn DKK
- Financial debt
- unavailable DKK
- Net debt
- unavailable DKK
- Equity
- 12.9 bn DKK
- Total assets
- 15.0 bn DKK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 4.22x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 9.2%
- FCF margin
- 40.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (DKK)
Income statement · DKK
| Line | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.2 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 3.0 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Research & development | 780.3 m | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.8 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 53.9 m | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.8 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | 425.6 m | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.4 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 17.60 | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
Balance sheet · DKK
| Line | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.7 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Receivables | 889.9 m | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.5 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.7 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.1 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 6.0 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Total assets | 15.0 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.6 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.1 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 12.9 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 78.1 m | esef· 02 Jun 2026derived |
Cash flow · DKK
| Line | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.7 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | 205.3 m | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.5 bn ≈ | esef· 02 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.5 bn | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -114.4 m | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 150.1 m | esef· 02 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 19.2 bn DKK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 22.0% | 82 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 183.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 33.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 6.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.9x | 50 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 13.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.8% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial11/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation72/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BAVARIAN NORDIC A/S (BAVA.CO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.2 bn DKK in 2025; net margin 22.0%; ROE 10.9%.
The estimated value range is 202.28–417.40 DKK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 232.13 DKK, the price of 245.40 DKK leaves a potential of -5.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -5.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 22.0%
- FCF conversion: 183.0%
- Interest coverage: 33.5x
- Current ratio: 6.5x
- FCF yield: 13.1%
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Denmark · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEMANT.CODemant A | 79.7 bn | 51.6 | 15.0% | 6.7% | +2.5% | +72% / +30% |
| PNDORA.COPandora A | 68.8 bn | 13.2 | 133.4% | 16.1% | unavailable | +16% / −3% |
| NEWCAP.CONewcap Holding A | 65.3 bn | 13,125.0 | 29.1% | 41.6% | −99.9% | +121% / +62% |
| ISS.COIss A | 50.8 bn | 19.8 | 27.7% | 3.1% | +1.1% | +43% / +158% |
| BAVA.COBavarian Nordic A | 19.2 bn | 13.9 | 10.9% | 22.0% | unavailable | +33% / +47% |
| GN.COGn Store Nord A | 18.1 bn | 27.7 | 6.3% | 6.8% | unavailable | +20% / −23% |
| NETC.CONetcompany Group A | 16.8 bn | 66.2 | 7.2% | 3.3% | unavailable | +11% / +64% |
| BIOMAR.COBiomar Group A | 12.1 bn | 16.9 | 28.3% | 4.3% | −0.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
| JDAN.COJeudan A | 11.1 bn | 11.1 | 7.7% | 57.1% | unavailable | +2% / −7% |
| DFDS.CODfds A | 8.7 bn | — | -0.2% | -0.1% | +1.9% | +73% / −25% |
| GUBRA.COGubra A | 4.8 bn | 2.9 | 149.6% | 64.1% | +892.2% | −40% / +157% |
| MATAS.COMatas A | 3.1 bn | 12.9 | 6.6% | 2.8% | +4.7% | −31% / −21% |
| CBRAIN.COCbrain A | 2.4 bn | 54.7 | 13.8% | 17.2% | −6.2% | −21% / −52% |
| BO.COBang & Olufsen A | 1.7 bn | — | -10.0% | -4.3% | −3.3% | −24% / +12% |
| COLUM.COColumbus A | 1.2 bn | 84.0 | 2.0% | 0.9% | unavailable | −5% / +30% |
| NNIT.CONnit A | 1.0 bn | — | -3.0% | -1.3% | −3.4% | −16% / −54% |
| NORTHM.CONorth Media A | 873.1 m | 13.2 | 5.5% | 5.1% | −0.4% | +11% / −16% |
| FFARMS.COFirstfarms A | 789.8 m | — | -2.3% | -5.4% | −16.5% | −9% / −1% |
| HUSCO.COHusCompagniet A | 507.2 m | — | -1.3% | -0.9% | +28.7% | −41% / −46% |
| BIOPOR.COBioporto A | 456.2 m | — | -117.6% | -203.8% | +11.2% | −8% / −53% |
| GABR.COGabriel Holding A | 429.4 m | 57.5 | 2.8% | 1.4% | +6.7% | −10% / −29% |
| GREENM.COGreenMobility A | 392.5 m | 11.9 | 74.3% | 21.5% | +20.0% | −19% / +91% |
| EGNETY.COEgnsinvest Ejendomme Tyskland A | 320.0 m | 13.0 | 4.0% | 40.9% | −2.6% | −21% / +11% |
| PFINV.COPapirfabrikken Invest A | 300.9 m | 13.5 | 5.4% | 29.7% | +0.9% | −3% / +36% |
| CEMAT.COCemat A | 213.9 m | 3.5 | 28.7% | 37.5% | +318.0% | −9% / +3% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BAVA.CO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Bavarian Nordic is a Danish vaccine company active in travel health (for example Rabipur/RabAvert against rabies) and public preparedness, with the JYNNEOS vaccine against mpox and smallpox. In the first half of 2026 revenue reached DKK 3,092 million 1, and full-year guidance was raised to approximately DKK 5,700 million 1, so the company's trajectory increasingly depends on government contracts.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a strong market position for Rabipur/RabAvert and a large share of the German market, supporting travel revenue 1.
- Equity is high relative to assets, and management raised 2026 guidance 1.
- The portfolio includes products at different development stages, offering options for long-term growth 1.
Weaknesses
- Public Preparedness revenue is concentrated in government contracts and can fluctuate sharply from year to year 1.
- Operating cash flow was negative in the first half because of higher receivables and working capital 1.
- Vimkunya sales in the US were slower than expected, which led to a lower guidance for that product 1.
Opportunities
- If authorities publish the ACIP recommendation in the MMWR, Vimkunya sales in the US could accelerate 1.
- Approval of JYNNEOS for children aged 2 to under 12 in the European Union could open new markets 1.
- Regional partnerships, such as the one with Eurofarma for Latin America, could extend distribution of the chikungunya vaccine 1.
Risks
- Dependence on government ordershigh
Public Preparedness revenue depends on contracts and options exercised by governments, and delays in orders can noticeably change quarterly results.
- ACIP recommendation for Vimkunyamedium
The delayed publication of the ACIP recommendation in the MMWR reduced expected Vimkunya revenue in the US, which management described as a temporary challenge 1.
- Working capital and receivablesmedium
High receivables at the end of the second quarter reduced operating cash flow, which could strain liquidity if payments are delayed 1.
- Production and quality risksmedium
Manufacturing is complex, and a lost batch or supply problem could affect deliveries and costs, as happened with a scrap provision for a Rabipur batch 1.
- Exchange rate risklow
Financial results are sensitive to the USD against DKK, and in the first half exchange rate gains materially affected the financial result 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Strong growth in Rabipur/RabAvert and higher 2026 guidance could signal that the revenue base is strengthening 1.
- Additional JYNNEOS contracts obtained in 2026 mean that a significant part of revenue is already secured 1.
- High equity and available liquidity could provide flexibility for investment in the product portfolio 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on government contracts can make revenue hard to forecast and sensitive to political decisions 1.
- Operating cash flow was negative in the first half, which could limit financial flexibility if the trend persists 1.
- Vimkunya sales in the US have been below expectations, and the guidance cut shows that new launches can be slow 1.
What to watch
- Q3 2026 results and the evolution of 2026 guidanceQ3 2026
- Publication of the annual report and confirmation of 2027 outlook2027
- Development of receivables and operating cash flowQ1 2027
- ACIP timing for Vimkunya and US sales2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Bavarian Nordic develops, manufactures and sells vaccines, and its activity is organised into two businesses: Travel Health, which includes vaccines for travellers, and Public Preparedness, which includes vaccines sold mainly to governments and organisations 1. The half-year report shows revenue rising from DKK 2,998 million to DKK 3,092 million in the first half of 2026, and EBIT of DKK 742 million (DKK 630 million) 1. The company also manages pipeline products, including an Epstein-Barr virus vaccine and a Lyme disease candidate 1.
The financial position is solid: equity at 30 June 2026 was DKK 13,217 million 1, while operating cash flow in the first half was negative, owing to higher working capital and the final milestone payment to GSK 1. The company completed a DKK 500 million share buy-back programme, and at the reporting date held 4.49% of its share capital as treasury shares 1.
Full-year 2026 guidance was updated on 21 August 2026 to approximately DKK 5,700 million of revenue, of which approximately DKK 3,000 million from Travel Health and approximately DKK 2,500 million from Public Preparedness 1. Management expects an EBITDA margin of approximately 30% 1, which could reflect a favourable product mix if manufacturing performance holds.
Segments
Market context
In Travel Health, the overall US market grew 20% in the first half, and the RabAvert market share was 78% 1. In Germany the overall market grew 22%, and the Rabipur market share was 96% 1. In Public Preparedness, demand depends on government contracts and mpox outbreaks, and the company said 2026 revenue is not expected to be materially impacted by outbreaks 1.
The travel vaccine market is sensitive to seasonality and to health authority recommendations, so revenue can vary from quarter to quarter 1. At the same time, government orders for pandemic preparedness can be large but irregular, which makes short-term results difficult to forecast 1.
Trends
- Growing demand for rabies and travel vaccinestailwind
Rabipur/RabAvert grew 40% in the first half of 2026 1, pointing to solid demand for travel vaccines. If this trend continues, it could support Travel Health revenue in coming quarters.
- Delayed ACIP recommendation for Vimkunya in the USheadwind
Vimkunya sales in the US have been slower because the April 2025 ACIP recommendation has not been published in the MMWR and has been interpreted conservatively 1. Vimkunya guidance was reduced to DKK 200 million 1, illustrating the impact of this delay.
- Government contracts for pandemic preparednessmixed
The company secured additional contracts in 2026, including the US government's exercise of options for freeze-dried JYNNEOS 1. This can bring more predictable revenue, but it depends on government decisions and delivery timing.
- Pressure from development costs and working capitalheadwind
Research and development costs fell to DKK 339 million in the first half of 2026 from DKK 465 million 1, but high receivables at the end of the second quarter reduced operating cash flow 1. If working capital demands persist, liquidity could be tested.
Competitive position
The supplied sources do not identify direct competitors of the company. They do show that Bavarian Nordic holds a leading position in certain categories, for example a 96% share of the German market for Rabipur 1.
In Public Preparedness the company depends on contracts with governments and organisations, so its competitive position is judged mainly by its ability to deliver large volumes and by national regulation 1. Launches of products in new countries, such as Vimkunya in several European states, show expanding commercial reach 1.
- Competitors not named in the supplied sources
The sources do not name competitors, so no specific competitor claims can be made.
- Travel vaccine suppliers
The category includes companies selling rabies, typhoid or cholera vaccines, but the sources do not identify them.
- Mpox and smallpox vaccine producers
The category includes suppliers competing for government contracts, but the sources do not identify them.
- Distribution partners
The company works with partners such as Eurofarma in Brazil, which holds exclusive sales rights for the chikungunya vaccine 1.
News & filings
In the press
- German prosecutors investigate hotel death of Bavarian ministerPolitico EU · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- No signs of violent death in Bavarian economy minister’s case — mediaTASS (RU, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Hitler Eagle Nest in the Bavarian Alps on fire : a suspect arrestedSurge — GDELT DOC · 25 Oct 2026 · RO
- Fire Engulfs Hitler Eagle Nest Retreat In Bavarian Alps , Suspect DetainedSurge — GDELT DOC · 24 Oct 2026 · RO
- STAT+: Pharmalittle: We’re reading about FDA hiring delays, a new Bavarian Nordic CEO, and moreSTAT News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Cyberattack encrypts systems at Bavarian municipal utilityThe Record (Recorded Future) · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Bavarian startup celebrates Europe’s first private-sector orbital rocket launchEuractiv · 06 Sept 2026 · EN
- Munich's defence tech boom: How Germany's rearmament is reshaping a Bavarian cityEuronews Next · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
- Munich's defence tech boom: How Germany's rearmament is reshaping a Bavarian cityEuronews Next · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202602 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202602 Jun 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Bavarian Nordic A/S · 30 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.