olivLaw · European equity research
Billerud Aktiebolag (publ) BILL.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0000862997 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Billerud produces paper and packaging materials from virgin fibre, with integrated operations in Sweden, Finland and the US. Fiscal 2025 was marked by pressure in the Europe region and investments in North America, with operating results down from the prior year according to the annual report.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Billerud Aktiebolag (publ) (BILL.ST) stock was 89.60 SEK (+0.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 22.3 bn SEK, P/E 31.3 on diluted EPS of 2.86 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.91%, beta 0.59, 52-week range 59.35–95.85 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.9
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 80.55 – 89.91
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 11.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 82.91 / 74.57
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.86 / 1.53
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.4% | −0.6% | +13.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +16.8% | −4.2% | +21.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +33.5% | +4.3% | +29.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.6% | +7.5% | −12.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.2% | +9.9% | −7.7 pp | −8.3% |
| 3 years | −13.5% | +49.8% | −63.4 pp | +12.0% |
| 5 years | −47.6% | +42.8% | −90.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 14.4, median 23.6, max 32.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 1.7 bn | 711.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −59.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 7.02 | 2.86 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −59.3% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.3 bn SEK
- Financial debt
- 6.9 bn SEK
- Net debt
- 5.6 bn SEK
- Equity
- 27.7 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 47.4 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.25x
- Current ratio
- 1.32x
- ROE
- 2.5%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 2.6 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 431.0 m | 427.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.2 bn | 890.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 501.0 m | 179.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.7 bn | 711.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 7.02 | 2.86 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.00 | 3.50 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.6 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 6.8 bn | 6.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 15.5 bn | 13.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 29.1 bn | 28.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 50.2 bn | 47.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.0 bn | 4.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.2 bn | 10.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 21.3 bn | 19.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 29.0 bn | 27.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 248.9 m | 248.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 22.3 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 2.9% | 21 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 21 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 43 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 31.3x | 31 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.9% | 56 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet30/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial21/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial56/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial31/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Billerud Aktiebolag (publ) (BILL.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 2.5%.
The estimated value range is 39.36–69.52 SEK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 49.40 SEK, the price of 89.60 SEK leaves a potential of -44.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -81.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 2.9%
- Interest coverage: 2.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BILL.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Billerud produces paper and packaging materials from virgin fibre, with integrated operations in Sweden, Finland and the US. Fiscal 2025 was marked by pressure in the Europe region and investments in North America, with operating results down from the prior year according to the annual report 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Weakness in the European markethigh
If demand for board in Europe stays weak, the region's results could keep declining 1.
- Execution of the Evolution programmemedium
Delays or cost overruns on US investments could postpone the expected benefits 1.
- Emissions costsmedium
Removal of free emissions allowances could weigh on margins in Europe 1.
- Environmental permit in Norwaylow
The environmental authority's refusal for the Follum project could limit expansion of BCTMP production 1.
- Indebtednessmedium
Interest-bearing net debt could limit financial flexibility if operating results stay under pressure 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the cost savings programme and the Evolution project deliver as planned, margins could gradually recover, particularly in North America 1.
- A position in recyclable fibre packaging and rising sales of new US-made products could support long-term growth 1.
- A solid balance sheet and strong operating cash flow could provide room for investment and dividend payments 1.
What would break the thesis
- If oversupply in Europe persists, pressure on prices and volumes could continue to weigh on results in the largest region 1.
- Decline in graphic paper could reduce revenue from an important segment, and the shift to packaging could be slower than planned 1.
- Restructuring and digital transformation costs could keep weighing on operating results in the coming years 1.
What to watch
- EBITDA trend in the Europe region and effects of the cost savings programmeQ1 2026
- Progress of Evolution programme investments in the US2026
- Sales volumes of kraftliner and board from the US2026
- Impact of new EU emissions rules on costsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Billerud makes high-performance, renewable and recyclable paper and packaging materials from virgin fibre for food, consumer goods, industrial uses and printed communication. Its materials can replace alternatives with a larger climate footprint, such as plastic, aluminium and glass 1. The company operates close to forests in Sweden, Finland and the US, with nine production units and more than 2 000 customers in 112 countries 1.
Net sales for fiscal 2025 were 40 488 MSEK and EBITDA was 4 098 MSEK, a margin of 10% 1. Net income was 711 MSEK and earnings per share SEK 2,86 1. The report notes that results were affected by transformation costs, weaker European market conditions and a cost savings programme targeting 800 MSEK annually, with a 500 MSEK goal for 2026 1.
The Way Forward strategy aims to develop packaging production in North America through the Evolution programme, with investments of SEK 1,4 billion over 2024-2027 1. Interest-bearing net debt stood at 6 082 MSEK on 31 December 2025 1.
Segments
Europe region
Net sales in the region were 25 640 MSEK in 2025, down 10% from 2024, and EBITDA was 2 398 MSEK 1. The decline was mainly due to lower sales volumes and higher costs, according to the report 1.
North America region
Net sales in the region were 11 783 MSEK in 2025 and EBITDA rose to 2 307 MSEK, a margin of 20%, supported by higher volumes and better capacity utilisation 1. Launches of US-made products such as the Tribute kraftliner and the Voyager board produced first orders, according to the report 1.
Market context
The report points to weak demand in Europe for the board the company makes, with oversupply in the region, and solid conditions in North America for its paper products 1. Over the long term the global packaging market is expected to grow, while the graphic paper market could shrink as digitalisation advances 1.
For the first quarter of 2026 management expects steady development in North America and continued weak conditions in Europe, according to the report 1. Food and beverage packaging, a relatively resilient segment, makes up a large share of material sales 1.
Trends
- Substitution of plastic with fibre packagingtailwind
Demand for recyclable materials that replace plastic, aluminium and glass could support the company's packaging sales, as described in the report 1.
- Digitalisation and the decline of graphic paperheadwind
The shift to digital media could reduce long-term demand for graphic paper, a segment where the company holds important positions 1.
- Oversupply and weak demand in Europeheadwind
Board oversupply and weaker demand have pressured the region's results, and the savings programme targets fixed costs 1.
- EU emissions policymixed
New EU emissions trading rules that remove free allowances could raise costs for European fibre producers, according to the report 1.
Competitive position
The report does not describe competitors in detail, but it highlights price and supply pressure in Europe and competition in US product markets 1. The company differentiates itself through recyclable materials and integrated production close to forests 1.
Its competitive position rests on long-term customer relationships in liquid packaging board and on technical know-how, recorded as key intangible resources 1. The company is also reformulating new products to meet demand for recyclable packaging 1.
- European board and paper producers
Competitors in the Europe region, referred to indirectly through the oversupply of board in the region.
- North American kraftliner producers
Competitors in the US market for kraftliner and board, where the company is expanding production.
- Fibre-based packaging producers
Competitors in food and consumer goods packaging segments.
- Graphic paper producers
Competitors in graphic paper, a segment under pressure from digitalisation.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Billerud Aktiebolag (publ) · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.