olivLaw · European equity research
Vestum AB (publ) CYNCA.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0030587176 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Vestum AB is a Swedish group that acquires and develops specialist companies in infrastructure, services and water. In 2025 net sales fell under the effect of divestments, and the adjusted EBITA margin declined markedly, making organic growth and leverage the main points to monitor.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Vestum AB (publ) (CYNCA.ST) stock was 30.80 SEK (−2.10% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.4 bn SEK, beta 0.97, 52-week range 30.80–168.80 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 19.3
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 27.44 – 46.17
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.18 · band width 50.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 64.87 / 107.43
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -8.20 / -9.99
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −27.2% | −0.6% | −26.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −80.7% | −4.2% | −76.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −72.1% | +4.3% | −76.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −65.3% | +7.5% | −72.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −62.9% | +9.9% | −72.8 pp | −7.6% |
| 3 years | −20.3% | +49.8% | −70.1 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −93.8% | +42.8% | −136.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −3.8% | −11.1% |
| Net income | -374.0 m | -197.0 m | -137.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.00 | -0.52 | -0.36 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -8.5% | -4.6% | -3.6% |
| Free cash flow | 411.0 m | 336.0 m | 242.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 177.0 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 1.6 bn SEK
- Net debt
- 1.4 bn SEK
- Equity
- 3.6 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 6.8 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.45x
- Current ratio
- 1.56x
- ROE
- -3.6%
- ROA
- -1.9%
- FCF margin
- 6.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 214.0 m | 164.0 m | 91.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 331.0 m | 219.0 m | 245.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 36.0 m | -29.0 m | -131.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 41.0 m | 22.0 m | 1.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -374.0 m | -197.0 m | -137.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.00 | -0.52 | -0.36 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 375.2 m | 378.6 m | 378.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 345.0 m | 174.0 m | 177.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 330.0 m | 328.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 236.0 m | 189.0 m | 260.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 8.4 bn | 7.6 bn | 6.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.3 bn | 1.0 m | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 590.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 767.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.1 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 374.0 m | 378.8 m | 370.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 463.0 m | 377.0 m | 314.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 52.0 m | 41.0 m | 72.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 411.0 m ≈ | 336.0 m ≈ | 242.0 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -45.0 m | -275.0 m | -143.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -832.0 m | -416.0 m | -152.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 11.4 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.5% | 17 (vs peers) | 29% |
| Net margin · Quality | -3.6% | 14 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 63 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.1% | 27 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet25/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality16/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial27/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Vestum AB (publ) (CYNCA.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.8 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth -11.1%; net margin -3.6%; ROE -3.7%.
The estimated value range is 6.35–10.06 SEK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.90 SEK, the price of 30.80 SEK leaves a potential of -74.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -290.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 1.5%
- Net margin: -3.6%
- Interest coverage: 0.4x
- FCF yield: 2.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 219.9 bn | 26.6 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +19% / +36% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 141.8 bn | 15.1 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +11% / +80% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.4 bn | 70.8 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +26% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.4 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 43.3 bn | 59.6 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +18% / +58% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 30.0 bn | 60.9 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −17% / unavailable |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 29.3 bn | 23.8 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +79% / +118% |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.9 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +20% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.5 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +19% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.9 bn | 29.5 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +15% / +121% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 19.5 bn | 24.1 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +55% / +276% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.7 bn | 18.3 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −18% / +2% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 13.9 bn | 16.9 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −34% / −45% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.2 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.6 bn | 15.3 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +21% / +136% |
| CYNCA.STVestum AB (publ) | 11.4 bn | — | -3.7% | -3.6% | −11.1% | −65% / −29% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.8 bn | 47.4 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +16% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +57% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.0 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +34% / +107% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 31.0 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +21% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.1 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +24% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.5 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −38% / −79% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.4 bn | 30.4 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −20% / +108% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.2 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −9% / +86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CYNCA.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Vestum AB is a Swedish group that acquires and develops specialist companies in infrastructure, services and water. In 2025 net sales fell under the effect of divestments, and the adjusted EBITA margin declined markedly, making organic growth and leverage the main points to monitor 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Acquisition model with specialist companies and stable market positions across several segments.
- Access to public and industrial clients with recurring demand for maintenance.
- Portfolio diversified across three segments, which reduces dependence on a single market.
Weaknesses
- High indebtedness, which limits financial flexibility and investment capacity.
- Decline in adjusted EBITA margin and operating result in fiscal 2025.
- Weak organic growth, heavily reliant on acquisitions for expansion.
Opportunities
- Demand for energy efficiency and renewal of critical infrastructure could open new projects.
- If financing costs fall, acquisitions of specialist companies could return to a stronger pace.
- Sustainability requirements may favour the group's solutions for reducing client emissions.
Threats
- Weaker economic conditions could reduce budgets of public and industrial clients.
- High financing costs could affect the ability to refinance debt.
- Currency fluctuations have already affected net sales and could continue to do so.
Risks
- High indebtednesshigh
Net debt and financing costs limit the group's room for manoeuvre, especially if operating results remain under pressure.
- Lower operating marginhigh
The decline in adjusted EBITA margin shows the sensitivity of results to costs and portfolio structure.
- Dependence on acquisitionsmedium
Group growth depends heavily on acquisitions, and difficulties in integration or financing could slow this strategy.
- Currency exposuremedium
Exchange rate changes had a negative effect on net sales and may continue to affect reported results.
- Ownership concentrationlow
Major shareholders control a significant part of the capital and votes, which can influence decisions and share liquidity.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for energy efficiency and critical infrastructure holds, the group's segments could return to stronger organic growth.
- A diversified portfolio and public-sector clients could provide a relatively stable revenue base.
- If debt reduction progresses, the group's financial flexibility could increase and support further acquisitions.
What would break the thesis
- High indebtedness and financing costs may limit the group's capacity to invest and expand.
- The decline in operating margin suggests profitability could stay under pressure if costs rise.
- If organic growth remains weak, the group could continue to depend on acquisitions, with integration risks.
What to watch
- Trend in adjusted EBITA margin and organic growthQ1 2026
- Level of net debt and ratio to EBITDA2026
- New acquisitions or divestments of companies2026
- Effect of exchange rates on net salesnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Vestum is a Swedish acquisition-led group that identifies and develops specialist companies in the Infrastructure, Services and Water segments. The group looks for companies with proven business models, strong market positions and predictable cash flows 1. Its shares are listed on Nasdaq Stockholm under the ticker VESTUM.
In fiscal 2025 the group completed two acquisitions of subsidiaries with a total purchase consideration of 760 MSEK, while part of its operations was divested, which explains the decline in net sales 1. Net sales by geographic market include Sweden, the United Kingdom and other countries 1.
The group does not propose a dividend for 2025, its policy being to reinvest profits and available cash flows in operations or new acquisitions 1. Operational management rests with the chief executive, supported by a management group that includes finance and legal roles.
Segments
Infrastructure
The Infrastructure segment, according to the report, includes solutions for critical infrastructure systems, including flow technologies. The annual report does not detail the segment's financial contribution in this passage.
Services
The Services segment focuses on installations, renovations and energy efficiency, which extend the life of technical systems and buildings 1. The document does not give separate figures for this segment in this passage.
Water
The Water segment covers water supply and water technology, areas essential to public infrastructure 1. Detailed per-segment figures do not appear in the available excerpt.
Market context
The group's customers include the public sector, industry, water infrastructure and the property sector, which require solutions that reduce climate impact and strengthen critical infrastructure 1. Demand for energy efficiency and renewal of existing systems in principle supports these segments.
The group's activity has a geographic exposure concentrated in Sweden and the United Kingdom, so developments in these local markets directly influence results 1. The high level of indebtedness limits flexibility in the face of more difficult market conditions.
Trends
- Energy efficiency and infrastructure renewaltailwind
Demand for systems that reduce energy and water use and extend building life could support the group's segments if public and private investment continues.
- Stricter climate regulationmixed
Regulatory requirements on emissions and sustainability reporting can create opportunities for efficient solutions, but they also raise compliance costs.
- Pressure on financing costsheadwind
High debt costs limit the capacity to acquire new companies, which could slow the acquisition-led growth model.
- Divestments and portfolio restructuringmixed
Divestments reduced net sales, but they can simplify the portfolio and free capital for more profitable companies.
Competitive position
Vestum competes with industrial service groups, installation providers and water technology suppliers, both in the Nordic market and internationally. The source text does not name competitors in this passage, so the list below is based on the general profile of the business.
The group's competitive edge lies in acquiring and integrating local companies with strong positions, but also in its ability to manage debt and keep margins stable in a competitive environment.
- Technical service and installation groups
Competition for installation and maintenance services for public and industrial clients.
- Water technology suppliers
Competition for solutions for water infrastructure and water efficiency.
- Critical infrastructure companies
Competition for infrastructure projects and systems essential to society.
- Acquirers of specialist companies
Competition for the same acquisition targets, which can influence purchase prices.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Vestum AB (publ) · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.