olivLaw · European equity research
eDreams ODIGEO S.A. EDR.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
eDreams ODIGEO is a global online travel company whose Prime subscription model reached 7.9 million members in fiscal 2026. The company argues that its value proposition, built on exclusive inventory and complex travel logistics, could protect it as AI platforms enter the travel sector, though this remains to be verified over time.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, eDreams ODIGEO S.A. (EDR.MC) stock was 5.14 EUR (+6.31% on the day), with market capitalisation 571.1 m EUR, P/E 11.4 on diluted EPS of 0.45 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 1.13, 52-week range 2.74–7.33 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.51 – 5.05
- above the upper band · %B 1.16 · band width 11.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.69 / 4.17
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.07 / 0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.0% | +0.4% | +13.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.0% | −3.3% | −6.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +46.2% | +4.0% | +42.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +28.8% | +8.1% | +20.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −28.5% | +10.7% | −39.2 pp | +3.2% |
| 3 years | −17.4% | +50.1% | −67.5 pp | +30.3% |
| 5 years | −35.8% | +43.6% | −79.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 6.8, median 20.0, max 27.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 650.5 m | 671.2 m | 668.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.2% | −0.4% |
| Net income | 32.4 m | 45.1 m | 52.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +39.3% | +15.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +44.0% | +25.0% |
| net % | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 81.8 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 247.9 m EUR
- Total assets
- 1.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.25x
- ROE
- 21.0%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 650.5 m | 671.2 m | 668.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 650.5 m | 671.2 m | 668.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 41.0 m | 75.3 m | 95.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 37.8 m | 44.2 m | 50.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 78.8 m ≈ | 119.5 m ≈ | 145.1 m ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 14.0 m | 48.9 m | 64.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | -18.3 m | 3.9 m | 12.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 32.4 m | 45.1 m | 52.2 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.45 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 91.2 m | 76.9 m | 81.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 162.6 m | 152.6 m | 140.4 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 6.6 m | 3.6 m | 8.4 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 630.2 m | 631.0 m | 630.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 327.7 m | 350.6 m | 365.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 493.3 m | 534.9 m | 551.2 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 274.5 m | 250.2 m | 247.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 124.5 m | 121.8 m | 111.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 138.9 m | 146.4 m | 175.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -48.8 m | -55.6 m | -61.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -31.0 m | -105.6 m | -107.4 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.7 m | 79.9 m | 65.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 571.1 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.74 – 10.51 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E7.74 – 10.51 (Mid 9.13)18 companies used · median multiple 20.3x · quartiles 17.2x – 23.3xACS.MC, ADX.MC, AEDAS.MC, AENA.MC, AMS.MC, ANA.MC, CAF.MC, CLEO.MC, CMO.MC, DESA.MC, DIA.MC, EAT.MC, ELE.MC, ENER.MC, ENO.MC, FAE.MC, FCC.MC, FDR.MC
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.8% | 62 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.4x | 91 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 11.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial62/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial91/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
EDREAMS ODIGEO SA (EDR.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 668.5 m EUR in 2026; YoY growth -0.4%; net margin 7.8%; ROE 21.0%.
The estimated value range is 7.74–10.51 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.13 EUR, the price of 5.14 EUR leaves a potential of 77.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 43.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 11.4x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 11.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.3x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.4 bn | 19.8 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +20% / +78% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 22.6 bn | 23.7 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +10% / +142% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.6 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +23% / +65% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.5 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −13% |
| FDR.MCFluidra S.A. | 3.8 bn | 21.4 | 10.9% | 7.8% | +4.1% | −17% / +5% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.7 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +52% / +383,650% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.5 bn | 22.2 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −2% / +60% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.3 bn | 50.5 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −12% / +31% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 571.1 m | 11.4 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 510.6 m | 31.7 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 489.0 m | 25.0 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −19% / −14% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 199.3 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 178.8 m | 32.8 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −32% / −4% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.4 m | 38.1 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +38% / +39% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 49.6 m | 10.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +32% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 30.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −27% / −35% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +12% / +59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EDR.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.02 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 5.35 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 8.07 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 2.65 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 5.30 Total return 3% · Per year 1% | 8.83 Total return 72% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 2.32 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 5.26 Total return 2% · Per year 0% | 9.66 Total return 88% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 1.33
- Net margin± 0.93
- Annual revenue growth± 0.80
- Annual dilution± 0.08
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
eDreams ODIGEO is a global online travel company whose Prime subscription model reached 7.9 million members in fiscal 2026 1. The company argues that its value proposition, built on exclusive inventory and complex travel logistics, could protect it as AI platforms enter the travel sector, though this remains to be verified over time.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a large Prime member base and a subscription model that generates more predictable revenue. Proprietary inventory, combined itineraries and package protection are differentiating elements.
- Cloud infrastructure and intensive use of AI allow rapid feature development and lower customer service costs.
- The licence network and bilateral commercial agreements, built over time, are difficult for new entrants to replicate.
Weaknesses
- Average revenue per Prime member fell over the last year, which could limit profitability growth if the trend continues.
- Reliance on paid traffic and external digital channels could raise customer acquisition costs.
- The company is exposed to compliance risks in several jurisdictions, following a recent fine in Italy that it is contesting.
Opportunities
- Advertising inside AI interfaces could open new traffic sources, and the Prime lifetime value advantage could allow more aggressive bidding.
- Planned growth in Prime members and Cash EBITDA could strengthen profitability if the targets are met.
- Using AI in pricing, marketing and service could reduce operating costs and speed up innovation.
Threats
- AI platforms could reduce direct access to customers if they expand their role in executing bookings.
- Regulation on pricing and subscriptions could raise costs or limit current sales models.
- Geopolitical uncertainty and higher fuel costs could reduce travel demand.
Risks
- Consumer protection compliancemedium
The company operates in several countries where rules on price transparency and subscription cancellation are changing. A penalty or legislative change could affect the Prime model.
- Cybersecurityhigh
AI-assisted attacks and incidents at cloud providers could affect platform availability and customer data. The company states it has not suffered a significant incident, but the risk remains major.
- Personal data protectionmedium
Handling member and customer data is subject to strict regulation, and a breach could lead to penalties and loss of trust.
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical conditionsmedium
Regional tensions, inflation and trade policies could reduce consumers' disposable income and travel volumes in the company's main markets.
- Dependence on AI channelshigh
If AI platforms change strategy and take over bookings, the company could lose traffic or have to pay more for it.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Prime subscription keeps growing and holds its margin, the company could turn revenue into a steadier and more profitable stream.
- Proprietary inventory and exclusive itineraries could protect the company from the standardisation that AI platforms might impose.
- Operating efficiency generated by AI could support margin growth without a proportional expansion of teams.
What would break the thesis
- A decline in Prime ARPU could point to pricing pressure or a shift in customer behaviour.
- If AI platforms become the dominant booking channels, the company could depend too heavily on paid advertising.
- Regulation and litigation across several jurisdictions could raise costs and limit the flexibility of the subscription model.
What to watch
- Development of Prime member numbers and ARPUnext annual report
- Outcome of the appeal against the AGCM fine in Italy2027
- Delivery of the growth targets for Prime members and Cash EBITDAFY28-FY30
- Evolution of advertising inside AI interfaces and the agent commission modelnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group operates as an integrated travel platform combining flights, hotels, trains and car rental, with commercial activity in 44 markets 1. Its business has gradually shifted from transactional intermediation toward the Prime subscription, which offers price guarantees, flexible bookings and proprietary complementary services. Management describes this transition as a source of more predictable revenue and higher lifetime value.
Differentiation rests on proprietary inventory, combined itineraries not available from a single supplier, package holiday protection (ATOL and the EU Package Travel Directive) and an IATA licence network across several countries 1. The company states these elements are hard for general AI agents to replicate, since they would need to meet similar regulatory and financial requirements.
The technology stack is fully cloud-hosted, with a data mesh architecture and more than 500 microservices, and the company reports intensive use of AI in pricing, marketing and customer service 1. Management links these investments to the goal of reaching 13 million Prime members by FY30 1.
Segments
Prime subscription
Prime is the main growth driver the company has highlighted, with 7.9 million members and a 75% share of Revenue Margin Cash, while Prime ARPU fell to 63.9 EUR from 75.9 EUR 1. Management says this structure improves retention and reduces reliance on one-off transactions.
Market context
The source indicates that leisure travel is fragmented between direct airline bookings (39%), traditional offline agencies (36%) and OTAs (25%) 1. The company believes this fragmentation will persist, meaning part of volume stays anchored to traditional channels.
Management describes the market as in transition as AI platforms expand their discovery and advertising roles, and OpenAI targets 100,000 million USD in advertising revenue by 2030 1. The company argues this could favour providers with efficient paid traffic, but that outcome depends on how the market actually develops.
Trends
- AI agents and automated bookingmixed
AI platforms could become a new traffic or booking channel, which could create advertising opportunities for providers with high lifetime value. The company says AI platforms generally do not seek to execute bookings, but this assumption is not certain.
- Advertising inside AI interfacesmixed
If click-out advertising expands into chatbots, companies with strong performance marketing could gain share. The company cites Prime's lifetime value as an advantage, but competition for traffic auctions could raise costs.
- Consumer regulationheadwind
Rules on price transparency, subscription cancellation and review integrity could raise compliance costs, particularly in the EU, the UK and the US. The company has mentioned an AGCM fine in Italy, which it is contesting.
- Travel demand and energy costsheadwind
Geopolitical tensions and higher aviation fuel costs could reduce demand or raise ticket prices, affecting booking volume. The company notes its commercial activity in the most affected areas is negligible.
Competitive position
Competition includes traditional OTAs, direct airline bookings and, potentially, general AI platforms that could become discovery channels. The company argues its value proposition, based on exclusive itineraries and proprietary services, is hard to standardise.
The source does not explicitly name listed competitors and mentions only large OTAs and AI platforms in general. The assessment of competitive position therefore rests mainly on management's statements.
- Large global OTAs
The document refers to four large OTAs that spent more than 20,000 million USD on advertising in 2025, without naming them.
- Airlines selling direct
Around 39% of the market books directly with the airline, an important competitor for the sales channel.
- Offline travel agencies
Traditional agencies represent a significant part of the market, especially for customers who prefer human interaction.
- General AI platforms
AI companies could become discovery or advertising channels, but management says they do not intend to take over booking execution.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202620 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / eDreams ODIGEO S.A. · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.