olivLaw · European equity research
Evolution AB (publ) EVO.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0012673267 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Evolution AB develops, produces and licenses fully integrated live casino and slot solutions for regulated gambling operators, earning mainly commissions on player winnings on its platform. The company matters now as it expands its game portfolio, studios and partnerships in a global online casino market valued at 105 186 MEUR at the end of 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Evolution AB (publ) (EVO.ST) stock was 859.00 SEK (+0.59% on the day), with beta 0.39, 52-week range 515.80–900.00 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 778.25 – 862.65
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 10.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 832.92 / 696.00
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 8.91 / 3.71
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.4% | −0.6% | +6.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +17.6% | −4.2% | +21.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +34.1% | +4.3% | +29.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +36.4% | +7.5% | +28.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +36.0% | +9.9% | +26.1 pp | −8.3% |
| 3 years | −16.9% | +49.8% | −66.7 pp | +12.0% |
| 5 years | −36.7% | +42.8% | −79.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +16.2% | −14.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.93 | 5.91 | 5.23 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +19.9% | −11.5% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 818.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 4.1 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 5.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.66x
- ROE
- 26.4%
- ROA
- 19.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 124.7 m | 142.2 m | 160.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 9.7 m | 7.2 m | 28.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 77.7 m | 194.9 m | 184.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.93 | 5.91 | 5.23 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 217.1 m | 210.5 m | 203.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.00 | 2.67 | — | esef· 08 May 2025derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 985.8 m | 801.5 m | 818.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 714.5 m | 692.4 m | 682.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 561.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 213.7 m | 209.4 m | 202.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 42.2 m | 65.3 m | 64.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -139.4 m | -248.0 m | -145.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -574.5 m | -1.2 bn | -1.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 427.4 m | 559.3 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 115.8 m | 678.0 m | 500.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 36.32 – 176.71 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E81.17 – 176.71 (Mid 111.26)25 companies used · median multiple 21.3x · quartiles 15.5x – 33.8xAAK.ST, ACAD.ST, AFRY.ST, ALFA.ST, ALIG.ST, ALLEI.ST, ALTRA.ST, APOTEA.ST, AQ.ST, ARPL.ST, ASKER.ST, ATIC.ST, ATRLJ-B.ST, ATT.ST, B3.ST, BHG.ST, BOL.ST, BOOZT.ST, BORG.ST, BRAV.ST, BUFAB.ST, CAMX.ST, CARA.ST, CEVI.ST, COOR.ST
- Dividend discount (DDM)36.32 – 49.52 (Mid 41.90)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 112.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 44.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 72 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 47.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet89/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Evolution AB (publ) (EVO.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 26.4%.
The estimated value range is 58.74–113.12 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 112.1%
- Interest coverage: 44.6x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 47.0%
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EVO.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Evolution AB develops, produces and licenses fully integrated live casino and slot solutions for regulated gambling operators, earning mainly commissions on player winnings on its platform. The company matters now as it expands its game portfolio, studios and partnerships in a global online casino market valued at 105 186 MEUR at the end of 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has an extensive network of internally controlled studios and a large game portfolio, which supports fast launches and controlled costs.
- Years of accumulated experience and data behind its games support product quality.
- ISO 27001:2022 certification and a leading position in Europe and North America strengthen operator confidence.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a relatively small number of large customers makes revenue sensitive to their commercial decisions.
- The company proposed no dividend for 2025, a departure from its capital allocation framework, which may reduce appeal for some investors.
- The RNG reorganisation brings operational disruption and a period in which effects on products are not yet visible.
Opportunities
- North American and Asian markets are growing and could add revenue if access is obtained.
- The Hasbro partnership could bring well-known brands into the ecosystem if they translate into popular titles.
- Fast formats and innovations in classic games could attract new generations of players.
Threats
- Differing regulation and possible restrictions on gambling could limit access in some markets.
- Competitors can copy successful formats, which could erode the innovation advantage.
- Cyberattacks and fraud risks could affect operator trust and the company's reputation.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A single major customer or a group of customers can represent a large share of revenue, and losing them could affect results.
- Regulationhigh
Changes to gambling legislation in the jurisdictions where the company operates could restrict its activity.
- RNG reorganisationmedium
Restructuring the RNG division could delay launches and create operational tension during the transition.
- Information securitymedium
Security incidents or data leaks could affect customer confidence, although the company reports careful risk management.
- Dependence on commissionsmedium
Revenue depends on the amounts wagered by end users, so a fall in player activity could reduce revenue directly.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the North American expansion and the Hasbro partnership produce popular titles, the company could keep growing faster than the global market.
- Its proprietary infrastructure and accumulated experience could keep costs under control and launch speed ahead of rivals.
- If the RNG reorganisation brings sharper focus, the slots division could become a second growth engine.
What would break the thesis
- If a major customer reduces activity or leaves the platform, revenue could fall noticeably.
- If regulation tightens in key markets, access to customers could be limited.
- If the RNG reorganisation takes longer than announced, new products could be delayed and competitors could gain ground.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and revenue trends in live casino and RNGQ1 2027
- Progress of the RNG division reorganisation2026
- Game launches under the Hasbro partnership2026
- Dividend policy and any resumption of payoutsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Evolution is a B2B supplier that works mainly with online gambling operators and a few land-based casinos, with about 870 customers at the end of 2025 1. It supplies croupiers, video streaming and everything needed for a live casino platform, and most of its revenue comes from commissions calculated as a percentage of customer winnings on its platform 1. Its edge rests on a network of internally controlled studios, with about 2 000 live tables at the end of 2025 1.
Segments
Live casino
The live segment includes roulette, blackjack and baccarat tables, plus game show titles such as Dream Catcher and Lightning Roulette, streamed from studios with real dealers 1. In 2025 new titles such as Ice Fishing, Red Baron and Race Track were added 1.
RNG and slots
The RNG segment covers First Person games, which are computer generated, and online slots from the NetEnt, Nolimit City, Red Tiger, Big Time Gaming, Sneaky Slots and Tap-A-Roo brands 1. In 2025 the company announced a reorganisation of its RNG division, expected to be completed in 2026 1.
Market context
Trends
- Wider US distributiontailwind
The company has increased its focus on North America and announced an exclusive partnership with Hasbro that covers the US market and could open new game categories 1.
- Speed game show innovationtailwind
Fast-paced titles such as Ice Fishing and Red Baron respond to consumer demand for short, interactive content, which could attract new players 1.
- Regulation across many jurisdictionsheadwind
The business depends on licences and differing local rules, and some markets require physical studio presence; regulatory changes could alter market access 1.
- Customer concentrationmixed
The largest customers generate a significant share of revenue, so losing a major client could affect results even if the total customer count grows 1.
Competitive position
The company describes its position as a leader among casino suppliers in Europe and North America, based on innovation, scale and proprietary infrastructure 1. Competition comes from other live and RNG game providers that pursue the same operators.
- Ezugi
Live casino brand of the group, cited in the report as part of the offering; direct competition with third parties is not detailed in the source.
- Other live and RNG game providers
Generic competitors for the same online gambling operators, mentioned in the sector analysis; the source does not name them.
- Land-based casino operators with in-house games
Operators that could develop or acquire similar solutions and so become competitors.
- Integrated online gaming platforms
Platforms that include live casino in their offering and may compete for the same player base.
News & filings
In the press
- 400,000-year-old teeth reveal a stunning twist in human evolutionScienceDaily · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Evolution has repeatedly turned hawkmoth genitals into defensive toolsPhys.org · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Body size, not competition, may kick-start evolutionPhys.org · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Tuning Surface Transformations in Cobalt-Based Spinel Oxides for Enhanced Activity and Stability in the Oxygen Evolution ReactionACS Nano · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Site-Differentiated High-Entropy Alloy Surface Enables Efficient Hydrogen Evolution in Acidic and Alkaline MediaACS Nano · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- 'Evolution in the act': Forest lizards reveal rapid adaptation in a warming worldPhys.org · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Beetle poop may have helped shape millions of years of yeast evolutionPhys.org · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- 650,000-Year-Old Skulls Found in China Raise Questions About Human EvolutionGreek Reporter (GR, EN) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- How competing reproductive needs shaped the evolution of liverwortsPhys.org · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Embracing Phase Transitions to Rationalize the High Oxygen Evolution Reaction Activity of Nickel Selenides in Alkaline ElectrolytesJournal of the American Chemical Society · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Visualizing Kinetic Control and Thermodynamic Selection in Nanocluster Structural EvolutionACS Nano · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Giant virus yields potassium channel gene that illuminates complex protein evolutionPhys.org · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Vatican exhibition traces 100-year evolution of iconic popemobileDaily Sabah — Economy (TR, EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Regime-Switching Control of C–N Bond Evolution in Electrochemical Methylamine OxidationJournal of the American Chemical Society · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Single-Atom-Mediated Two-Dimensional Heterointerface Stabilizing 1T-MoS2 for Durable Hydrogen EvolutionACS Nano · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Qinghai–Tibet Plateau study traces evolution of terrestrial animals across three distinct regionsPhys.org · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- A symbiogenic merger enabled by oxygen initiated the evolution of eukaryotesPNAS · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Operando Surface Dynamics Govern the pH-Universal Activity and Stability of Cobalt Phosphide for Hydrogen EvolutionJournal of the American Chemical Society · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Coupling Enzyme Activity to Host Survival via Genetic Code Expansion: An In Vivo Evolution System for BiocatalystsJournal of the American Chemical Society · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- The Evolution of Taiwan’s MilitaryThe Diplomat (Asia geopolitics) · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Evolution AB (publ) · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.