olivLaw · European equity research
Festi hf. FESTI.IC
Iceland · Nasdaq Iceland · ISIN IS0000020584 · Vertical: Listed companies from Iceland
Festi hf. is an Icelandic retail and fuel distribution group that also operates pharmacies following its Lyfja acquisition. The 2024 annual report shows a strong liquidity position and an equity ratio of 37.9%, alongside an administrative fine of ISK 750 million paid to the competition authority.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Festi hf. (FESTI.IC) stock was 296.00 ISK (+1.02% on the day), with market capitalisation 90.6 bn ISK, P/E 22.7 on diluted EPS of 13.05 ISK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.00%, beta 0.24, 52-week range 288.00–352.00 ISK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 289.18 – 304.65
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.44 · band width 5.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 299.48 / 319.32
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.14 / -0.84
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.9% | −3.3% | −0.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.3% | +4.0% | −14.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.6% | +8.1% | −16.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.7% | +10.7% | −16.4 pp | −9.4% |
| 3 years | +60.9% | +50.1% | +10.8 pp | +7.2% |
| 5 years | +32.1% | +43.6% | −11.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 13.8, median 18.1, max 21.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 121.4 bn | 136.3 bn | 154.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +12.2% | +13.4% |
| Net income | 4.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −15.8% | +16.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 13.19 | 11.31 | 13.05 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −14.3% | +15.4% |
| net % | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Free cash flow | 27.2 m | 6.0 bn | 5.3 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 4.1 bn ISK
- Financial debt
- unavailable ISK
- Net debt
- unavailable ISK
- Equity
- 43.5 bn ISK
- Total assets
- 114.8 bn ISK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.10x
- ROE
- 10.1%
- ROA
- 3.8%
- FCF margin
- 3.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (ISK)
Margins
Income statement · ISK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 121.4 bn | 136.3 bn | 154.5 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 94.4 bn | 105.6 bn | 117.7 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 27.0 bn | 30.7 bn | 36.7 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Operating income | 6.7 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.7 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 10.2 bn ≈ | 11.2 bn ≈ | 12.8 bn ≈ | esef· 11 Feb 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 2.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Income tax | 853.9 m | 697.8 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Net income | 4.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.0 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 13.19 | 11.31 | 13.05 | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.05 | 3.01 | 2.95 | esef· 11 Feb 2025derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · ISK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Inventories | 13.1 bn | 13.6 bn | 14.1 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Current assets | 21.9 bn | 23.6 bn | 26.5 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 34.8 bn | 35.8 bn | 41.2 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 14.9 bn | 14.8 bn | 18.4 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.5 bn | 4.3 bn | 8.2 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Total assets | 93.4 bn | 96.0 bn | 114.8 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 17.0 bn | 19.5 bn | 24.2 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 58.9 bn | 60.2 bn | 71.3 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Equity | 34.5 bn | 35.8 bn | 43.5 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 309.5 m | 304.0 m | 306.0 m | esef· 11 Feb 2025derived |
Cash flow · ISK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.6 bn | 9.4 bn | 9.1 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Capex | 4.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 27.2 m ≈ | 6.0 bn ≈ | 5.3 bn ≈ | esef· 11 Feb 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -4.8 bn | -3.4 bn | -8.1 bn | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.8 bn | -4.7 bn | -159.6 m | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.6 bn | 913.5 m | 903.8 m | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.9 bn | 1.1 bn | 0 | esef· 11 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 90.6 bn ISK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.6% | 22 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 132.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 8 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 25 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 22.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.9% | 73 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.0% | 14 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 17.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality61/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns49/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation33/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Festi hf. (FESTI.IC). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 154.5 bn ISK in 2024; YoY growth 13.4%; net margin 2.6%; ROE 10.1%.
The estimated value range is 221.21–239.07 ISK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 230.09 ISK, the price of 296.00 ISK leaves a potential of -22.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -28.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 132.1%
- FCF yield: 5.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 17.0%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 2.6%
- Interest coverage: 2.0x
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- P/E (TTM): 22.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Iceland · same country · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAGA.ICHagar hf. | 131.4 bn | 20.2 | 18.2% | 3.8% | +9.3% | +6% / +80% |
| FESTI.ICFesti hf. | 90.6 bn | 22.7 | 10.1% | 2.6% | +13.4% | −8% / +66% |
| HEIMAR.ICHeimar hf. | 62.0 bn | 7.5 | 13.5% | 55.5% | +7.7% | −5% / +51% |
| BERA.ICÖlgerðin Egill Skallagríms hf. | 37.6 bn | 17.6 | 13.7% | 5.9% | +7.7% | −22% / +2% |
| NOVA.ICNova Klúbburinn hf | 12.2 bn | 15.1 | 8.5% | 6.1% | +2.8% | −24% / −15% |
| ALVO.ICAlvotech | — | — | — | 9.0% | +43.4% | −14% / −59% |
| ASAR.ICSíminn hf. | — | 17.7 | — | — | +3.0% | −18% / +29% |
| BRIM.ICBrim hf. | — | — | 11.9% | 14.6% | +5.2% | +18% / +12% |
| EIK.ICEik Fasteignafélag Hf. | — | — | 10.2% | 43.6% | +9.5% | +1% / +23% |
| EIM.ICEimskipafélag Íslands hf. | — | — | 3.2% | 1.2% | −4.7% | +8% / −34% |
| HAMP.ICHampiðjan hf | — | — | 1.7% | 1.2% | +15.7% | −26% / −37% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FESTI.IC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (ISK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 191.72 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 337.62 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 506.74 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 220.71 Total return -23% · Per year -8% | 433.91 Total return 50% · Per year 15% | 709.96 Total return 145% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 254.07 Total return -9% · Per year -2% | 557.65 Total return 96% · Per year 14% | 994.70 Total return 246% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 108.48
- Net margin± 75.93
- Annual revenue growth± 57.45
- Annual dilution± 6.38
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Festi hf. is an Icelandic retail and fuel distribution group that also operates pharmacies following its Lyfja acquisition. The 2024 annual report shows a strong liquidity position and an equity ratio of 37.9% 1, alongside an administrative fine of ISK 750 million paid to the competition authority 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong liquidity and an unused credit line available at year-end.
- Loan conditions met, with an equity ratio above the contractual threshold.
- Partial hedging of price risk through agreements with large customers and derivative contracts.
Weaknesses
- High exposure to the volatile world oil price.
- Receivables concentrated among a small group of large customers in certain industries.
- Profit sensitivity to interest rate changes for the floating-rate part of borrowing.
Opportunities
- Integrating Lyfja could open new product categories in pharmacy.
- If interest rates fall, the cost of floating-rate borrowing could become more favourable.
- Resolving the dispute with the competition authority could clarify the operating outlook.
Threats
- Oil price shocks could reduce margins and demand.
- Regulatory pressure and sanctions could limit future acquisitions.
- Payment difficulties among customers in the transport and fishing sectors could increase receivable losses.
Risks
- Oil price riskhigh
Oil price volatility directly affects purchase costs, and hedges cover only part of the exposure.
- Interest rate riskmedium
A rise in interest rates would reduce profit before tax, given the floating-rate part of borrowing.
- Credit riskmedium
Receivables are concentrated among large customers in a few industries, raising exposure to insolvency.
- Regulatory riskhigh
Acknowledged breaches of obligations and fines could affect reputation and conditions for future acquisitions.
- Currency risklow
Purchases in USD and EUR create exposure to exchange rates, even though most sales are in ISK.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A solid liquidity position and an available credit line provide flexibility in difficult periods.
- An equity ratio above the loan covenant threshold suggests a stable financial structure.
- The Lyfja acquisition could diversify the business if integration proceeds as planned.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on the oil price leaves margins vulnerable to world market shocks.
- The fine and acknowledged breaches could signal governance or compliance issues.
- A rise in interest rates could quickly weigh on profit because of floating-rate debt.
What to watch
- Oil price trends and their effect on margins2025
- Lyfja integration and compliance with competition authority conditions2025
- Equity ratio level against the contractual thresholdnext 10-K
- Trend in receivables from large transport and fishing customersnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Festi hf. group operates in Iceland, with customers in transport, fishing and contracting, according to the credit risk notes 1. The company buys most goods for resale from foreign suppliers, mainly in USD and EUR, while sales are largely in ISK 1. The annual report also mentions the Lyfja acquisition, which the competition authority approved subject to special conditions 1.
The core business includes selling consumer goods and fuels, with a distribution network serving both corporate and retail customers, according to the report 1. The company uses oil purchase agreements and derivative contracts to hedge part of its price risk 1.
Segments
Fuel and distribution
Oil price is the main market risk for this segment, and the group reduces it through agreements with its largest customers and forward contracts 1. The loss from oil hedges was ISK 1 million in 2024, compared with ISK 63 million in 2023 1.
Pharmacies (Lyfja)
The Lyfja acquisition is subject to competition authority conditions, including a ban on non-compete clauses for pharmacists and operational separation of subsidiary Heilsa 1.
Market context
The Icelandic market is small, and demand depends on the transport and fishing sectors, which appear as the largest customer groups in the credit analysis 1. Volatility in the world oil price directly affects the group's margins 1. The share of sales in ISK, at 96% in 2024, shows limited exposure to exchange rates on the sales side 1.
Financing costs are sensitive to interest rates, because part of the borrowing carries a floating rate, and financing mixes non-indexed loans with CPI-indexed loans 1.
Trends
- Oil price volatilityheadwind
The world oil market has been very volatile in recent years, affecting purchase costs 1. If prices rise sharply, margins could come under pressure, although customer agreements partly offset this effect 1.
- Interest rate levelmixed
High interest rates raise the cost of floating-rate borrowing, but diversified financing limits exposure 1. If rates fall, financing costs could ease.
- Regulation and competitionheadwind
The competition authority imposed strict conditions after acquisitions, and the group acknowledged breaches of earlier obligations 1. Regulatory pressure could continue to shape acquisition decisions.
- Liquidity and credit accesstailwind
The liquidity position was described as strong, with an available credit line unused at year-end 1. This supports the ability to meet obligations.
Competitive position
Festi operates in a small market where competition comes from other fuel distributors and from retail and pharmacy chains 1. The annual report does not detail a full list of competitors, and the Lyfja acquisition was reviewed as potentially restrictive to competition 1.
- Other fuel distributors in Iceland
Local operators competing in the fuel segment, referenced generically in the source.
- Pharmacy chains in Iceland
Competitors in the pharmacy segment, relevant after the Lyfja acquisition.
- Food retail and convenience chains
Competitors for consumer goods sales, though the source does not name them.
- Foreign suppliers of resale goods
Not direct competitors, but they influence purchase costs through their pricing.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202411 Feb 2025
- Annual report 202320 Feb 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Festi hf. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.