olivLaw · European equity research
Hagar hf. HAGA.IC
Iceland · Nasdaq Iceland · ISIN IS0000020121 · Vertical: Listed companies from Iceland
Hagar hf. is an Icelandic retail group selling food and non-food products, which reported revenue of 197.043 million ISK and an operating profit of 11.441 million ISK for the year ended 28 February 2026. The profile matters now because the results show margin improvement in a competitive retail sector.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Hagar hf. (HAGA.IC) stock was 122.00 ISK (+1.67% on the day), with market capitalisation 133.6 bn ISK, P/E 20.5 on diluted EPS of 5.94 ISK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.87%, beta 0.29, 52-week range 110.00–126.00 ISK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 113.41 – 123.01
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.89 · band width 8.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 118.77 / 119.43
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.51 / 0.21
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.1% | +0.4% | +5.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.5% | −3.3% | +5.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.7% | +4.0% | −2.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +4.3% | +8.1% | −3.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.4% | +10.7% | −0.3 pp | −10.7% |
| 3 years | +80.7% | +50.1% | +30.7 pp | +6.7% |
| 5 years | +87.7% | +43.6% | +44.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 16.2, median 16.3, max 20.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 173.3 bn | 180.3 bn | 197.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.1% | +9.3% |
| Net income | 5.0 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +39.4% | +5.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.51 | 6.30 | 5.94 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +39.7% | −5.7% |
| net % | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Free cash flow | 4.8 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.1 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 28 Feb 2026
- Cash
- 3.9 bn ISK
- Financial debt
- 14.4 bn ISK
- Net debt
- 10.5 bn ISK
- Equity
- 42.8 bn ISK
- Total assets
- 115.2 bn ISK
- Debt / equity
- 0.34x
- Current ratio
- 0.75x
- ROE
- 18.2%
- ROA
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 4.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (ISK)
Margins
Income statement · ISK
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 173.3 bn | 180.3 bn | 197.0 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 137.3 bn | 139.2 bn | 147.9 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 36.0 bn | 41.1 bn | 49.1 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | 8.0 bn | 10.4 bn | 11.4 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.0 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.3 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 13.1 bn ≈ | 15.8 bn ≈ | 17.7 bn ≈ | esef· 12 May 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | 3.3 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 6.1 bn | 8.4 bn | 9.0 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.0 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.4 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.51 | 6.30 | 5.94 | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.25 | 2.32 | 2.29 | esef· 12 May 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · ISK
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 6.2 bn | 6.9 bn | 6.6 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 13.1 bn | 14.0 bn | 14.4 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 21.1 bn | 23.2 bn | 24.9 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 22.5 bn | 35.6 bn | 37.8 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 78.2 bn | 105.5 bn | 115.2 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 17.5 bn | 19.7 bn | 20.2 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 11.3 bn | 17.1 bn | 14.4 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 25.9 bn | 29.6 bn | 33.2 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 49.2 bn | 67.0 bn | 72.5 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 29.0 bn | 38.5 bn | 42.8 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 12 May 2026derived |
Cash flow · ISK
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 8.7 bn | 11.1 bn | 13.0 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 4.8 bn ≈ | 7.3 bn ≈ | 8.1 bn ≈ | esef· 12 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -4.8 bn | -8.7 bn | -5.3 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -4.9 bn | -2.0 bn | -6.2 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.3 bn | 0 | 1.1 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 62 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 133.6 bn ISK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet55
- Valuation51
- Returns63
- Quality82
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 62/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 17.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.8% | 33 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 109.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 97 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 22 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.5x | 20 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.1x | 62 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.1% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.7% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 30.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet55/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality82/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Hagar hf. (HAGA.IC). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-02-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 197.0 bn ISK in 2026; YoY growth 9.3%; net margin 3.8%; ROE 18.2%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 95.41–103.03 ISK per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 102.80 ISK, the price of 122.00 ISK leaves a potential of -15.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -18.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 62/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 17.5%
- FCF conversion: 109.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
- FCF yield: 6.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 30.8%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.9x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- P/E (TTM): 20.5x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Iceland · same country · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAGA.ICHagar hf. | 133.6 bn | 20.5 | 18.2% | 3.8% | +9.3% | +8% / +83% |
| FESTI.ICFesti hf. | 90.9 bn | 22.8 | 10.1% | 2.6% | +13.4% | −8% / +67% |
| HEIMAR.ICHeimar hf. | 61.3 bn | 7.5 | 13.5% | 55.5% | +7.7% | −6% / +49% |
| BERA.ICÖlgerðin Egill Skallagríms hf. | 37.1 bn | 17.3 | 13.7% | 5.9% | +7.7% | −24% / +0% |
| NOVA.ICNova Klúbburinn hf | 12.0 bn | 14.8 | 8.5% | 6.1% | +2.8% | −26% / −16% |
| ALVO.ICAlvotech | — | — | — | 9.0% | +43.4% | −14% / −58% |
| ASAR.ICSíminn hf. | — | 17.4 | — | — | +3.0% | −19% / +27% |
| BRIM.ICBrim hf. | — | — | 11.9% | 14.6% | +5.2% | +19% / +13% |
| EIK.ICEik Fasteignafélag Hf. | — | — | 10.2% | 43.6% | +9.5% | +1% / +23% |
| EIM.ICEimskipafélag Íslands hf. | — | — | 3.2% | 1.2% | −4.7% | +6% / −35% |
| HAMP.ICHampiðjan hf | — | — | 1.7% | 1.2% | +15.7% | −26% / −37% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HAGA.IC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (ISK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 85.87 Total return -28% · Per year -28% | 151.48 Total return 26% · Per year 26% | 227.71 Total return 89% · Per year 89% |
| 3 years | 91.50 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 180.83 Total return 56% · Per year 16% | 297.29 Total return 153% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 97.50 Total return -11% · Per year -2% | 215.87 Total return 91% · Per year 14% | 388.12 Total return 237% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 45.21
- Net margin± 31.65
- Annual revenue growth± 24.84
- Annual dilution± 2.66
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Hagar hf. is an Icelandic retail group selling food and non-food products, which reported revenue of 197.043 million ISK and an operating profit of 11.441 million ISK for the year ended 28 February 2026. The profile matters now because the results show margin improvement in a competitive retail sector.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group recorded growth in gross profit and operating profit, indicating solid operational execution in the year under review.
- A diversified structure, including investment property, leased assets and interests in associates, may provide additional income sources.
- The auditor did not flag material uncertainty about going concern, which supports confidence in the group's stability.
Weaknesses
- Personnel and financing costs weigh on the net margin, reducing how efficiently revenue turns into profit.
- Short-term and long-term debt remain significant, exposing the group to changes in interest rates.
- Results include fair-value elements that can fluctuate and affect comparability between periods.
Opportunities
- Operating cost optimisation could strengthen margins if revenue growth continues.
- Making better use of investment property and leased assets could generate more predictable income.
- Developing holdings in associates could add value to the consolidated result.
Threats
- A decline in domestic consumption could reduce sales and pressure the group's margins.
- Rising financing costs or currency fluctuations could reduce net profit.
- Intense retail competition could limit the ability to sustain current prices and margins.
Risks
- Personnel cost pressuremedium
Rising salary expenses could reduce profitability if not offset by sales growth.
- Interest rate exposurehigh
Short- and long-term interest-bearing debt exposes the group to rate increases, which could affect net profit.
- Property value volatilitymedium
Changes in the value of investment property and fixed assets can influence equity and the result.
- Currency exposurelow
Exchange differences could affect the financial result, particularly for foreign-currency liabilities or assets.
- Retail competitionmedium
Competitive pressure could limit sales growth and trading margins.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in gross profit and operating profit suggests the group can convert revenue into profit more efficiently. If this continues, the results could support long-term value.
- Diversification across property and associates may reduce reliance on a single income stream and could stabilise results in harder periods.
- The absence of material going-concern uncertainty flagged by the auditor provides a more stable financial framework for planning.
What would break the thesis
- Personnel and financing costs could continue to limit net profit even if revenue grows.
- Significant debt exposes the group to interest rate increases, which could reduce financial flexibility.
- Fair-value results can fluctuate and reduce comparability between periods.
What to watch
- Development of gross margin and personnel costsnext 10-K
- Level of net financial expenses and debt2027
- Valuation changes in investment propertynext 10-K
- Contribution of associates to net profit2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the consolidated annual report for the period 1 March 2025 to 28 February 2026, Hagar hf. is an Icelandic public limited company headquartered in Reykjavik. The group reports revenue from sales of goods and other operating income, and the income statement separates cost of goods sold, salary costs and depreciation. The statements are prepared under international reporting standards and filed in ESEF format.
The consolidated structure includes interests in subsidiaries and associates, as well as investment property, so group results also depend on these entities. The auditor's report confirms the consolidated statements are prepared on a going concern basis, with no material uncertainty flagged.
On the balance sheet, fixed assets include tangible assets, investment property and leased assets, while liabilities are split between short-term and long-term debt. Equity attributable to the parent company's shareholders is shown separately from non-controlling interests.
Segments
Retail sales
Sales of goods are the group's main revenue source, with revenue of 197.043 million ISK in fiscal 2025/26. Gross margin improved, and gross profit reached 49.124 million ISK according to the consolidated income statement.
Real estate and investments
The group holds investment property measured separately, and changes in its value are reported in the financial result. The report shows a separate line for leased property, suggesting a more stable income component than retail sales.
Investments in associates
The group consolidates the results of certain associates using the equity method, and their result appears as a separate line in the income statement. This component can significantly influence net profit depending on the performance of these holdings.
Market context
Hagar operates in the Icelandic retail market, where demand for food and non-food products depends on disposable income and price developments. The report does not provide detailed sector data, so market size and the group's share cannot be determined from the available source.
Group results are sensitive to financing costs and exchange rates, factors referenced in the financial statements through currency differences and interest expense. A more difficult economic environment could reduce consumption and pressure margins.
Trends
- Gross margin improvementtailwind
Gross profit rose compared with the prior year, indicating better trading margins. If this trend holds, it could support the group's operating profitability.
- Personnel costsheadwind
Salary costs and related contributions increased over the last year, which reduces operating margin. The development of these costs will influence whether revenue growth converts into profit.
- Financing costsmixed
Net financial expenses and interest on interest-bearing debt are a significant burden on net profit. Movements in interest rates could change this pressure.
- Property revaluationmixed
Results include changes in the value of investment property and fixed assets, shown separately in equity. These adjustments can be favourable or unfavourable depending on the property market.
Competitive position
The supplied source does not identify the group's competitors. In the Icelandic retail market, competition typically comes from grocery chains and non-food retailers, but these names would need to be verified in separate sources before use.
The group's competitive position depends on its store network, supply chain and ability to maintain margins. The report does not describe a market share, so comparative assessment remains limited to the financial statements.
- Icelandic grocery chains
Not identified in the supplied source; direct competition in Icelandic grocery retail cannot be confirmed from this document.
- Non-food retail operators
The source does not name non-food competitors; this needs checking against independent external sources.
- Online retail operators
Digital competition is not described in the report, though it may influence retail sales.
- Regional consumer goods distributors
Not mentioned in the source; their relevance to the group cannot be assessed from the document.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202612 May 2026
- Annual report 202507 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-02-28 (ESEF) · SEC / Hagar hf. · 28 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.