olivLaw · European equity research
Infrea AB INFREA.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0010600106 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Infrea AB is a Swedish infrastructure construction group active in earthworks, foundations, asphalting and finishing on public and private sites, organised as a holding of regional subsidiaries. The company is in a phase of refocusing after divesting its water and sewage segment, and its target market is supported by national transport and energy plans. The cost structure and profitability remain to be monitored given the long-term nature of projects.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Infrea AB (INFREA.ST) stock was 12.90 SEK (−0.77% on the day), with market capitalisation 387.0 m SEK, P/E 6.1 on diluted EPS of 2.10 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.88%, beta 0.27, 52-week range 11.20–16.85 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 10.87 – 13.39
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.81 · band width 20.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 13.12 / 14.36
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.22 / -0.40
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.4% | −0.6% | −2.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.9% | −4.2% | +2.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −11.3% | +4.3% | −15.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −9.2% | +7.5% | −16.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.1% | +9.9% | −11.1 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | −2.6% | +49.8% | −52.5 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −67.9% | +42.8% | −110.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 6.8, median 6.8, max 6.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −5.7% | +8.6% |
| Net income | -7.6 m | -8.0 m | 63.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.40 | -0.30 | 2.10 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -0.4% | -0.4% | 3.0% |
| Free cash flow | 11.2 m | 79.9 m | 56.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 218.0 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 127.3 m SEK
- Net debt
- -90.7 m SEK
- Equity
- 685.7 m SEK
- Total assets
- 1.3 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.19x
- Current ratio
- 1.78x
- ROE
- 9.5%
- ROA
- 4.7%
- FCF margin
- 2.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 12.5 m | 1.5 m | 26.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 84.9 m | 82.1 m | 77.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 97.4 m ≈ | 83.6 m ≈ | 104.4 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 21.5 m | 19.5 m | 14.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -8.1 m | -16.1 m | 14.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | -500.0 k | 2.7 m | 7.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -7.6 m | -8.0 m | 63.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.40 | -0.30 | 2.10 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 19.9 m | 27.0 m | 30.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.00 | 0.50 | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 66.9 m | 155.8 m | 218.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 31.6 m | 32.4 m | 19.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 529.1 m | 617.4 m | 738.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 157.8 m | 139.8 m | 71.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 191.2 m | 162.1 m | 171.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 32.4 m | 28.8 m | 19.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 194.8 m | 167.0 m | 107.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 422.4 m | 434.4 m | 414.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 775.3 m | 741.9 m | 593.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 563.6 m | 637.6 m | 685.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 19.0 m | 26.7 m | 30.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 30.4 m | 99.7 m | 63.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 19.2 m | 19.8 m | 7.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 11.2 m ≈ | 79.9 m ≈ | 56.7 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -4.0 m | -7.1 m | 140.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -84.5 m | -3.8 m | -142.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 0 | 15.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 6.1 m | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 72 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 387.0 m SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality41
- Returns73
- Balance sheet68
- Valuation100
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 72/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 2.1% | 17 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.0% | 36 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 90.0% | 86 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 6 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 82 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 6.1x | 100 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 14.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.9% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 26.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality41/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns73/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Infrea AB (INFREA.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth 8.6%; net margin 3.0%; ROE 9.5%; net debt/EBITDA -0.9x.
The estimated value range is 31.30–44.40 SEK per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 36.53 SEK, the price of 12.90 SEK leaves a potential of 183.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 64.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 72/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 90.0%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.9x
- Current ratio: 1.8x
- P/E (TTM): 6.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 2.8x
- FCF yield: 14.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 26.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 2.1%
- Interest coverage: 1.9x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for INFREA.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 7.94 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 14.01 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 21.06 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 8.35 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 16.52 Total return 42% · Per year 12% | 27.18 Total return 128% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 8.79 Total return -15% · Per year -3% | 19.48 Total return 76% · Per year 12% | 35.07 Total return 205% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 4.13
- Net margin± 2.89
- Annual revenue growth± 2.28
- Annual dilution± 0.24
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Infrea AB is a Swedish infrastructure construction group active in earthworks, foundations, asphalting and finishing on public and private sites, organised as a holding of regional subsidiaries. The company is in a phase of refocusing after divesting its water and sewage segment, and its target market is supported by national transport and energy plans. The cost structure and profitability remain to be monitored given the long-term nature of projects.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong local positions in regional subsidiaries, with experience in complex projects and control over asphalt production.
- Strengthened balance sheet after refocusing, with a net cash position at year-end 2025 1.
- Vertical integration along the value chain, from site preparation to asphalting.
Weaknesses
- Activity is concentrated in several geographic regions, and dependence on a few large public clients can be a vulnerability.
- Revenue recognition on long projects is sensitive to estimation errors, which can affect reported results.
- Relatively small size compared with national competitors may limit capacity to take on very large contracts.
Opportunities
- The national transport plan and energy investments could generate sustained long-term demand.
- Fragmentation of regional markets may open acquisition opportunities with synergies.
- Demand for sustainable solutions and defence-related infrastructure could create new projects.
Threats
- Cost pressure and project delays can reduce margins if contracts do not compensate for risk.
- The public funding timetable can be changed by political decisions, which could delay contracts.
- Competition from large operators may press prices in tenders.
Risks
- Project revenue recognitionhigh
Errors in forecasts, valuation of work in progress or revenue timing can affect results and cash flow 1.
- Goodwill valuationmedium
Goodwill valuation depends on subjective assumptions about future cash flows, and an impairment could affect results 1.
- Financing and liquiditymedium
If financing for acquisitions or investments is not obtained, or if interest costs rise, financial results can be affected 1.
- Compliance and ethicsmedium
Lack of adequate procedures for legislation, procurement and ethical conduct may lead to loss of permits or sanctions 1.
- Concentration on public projectslow
Dependence on contracts with public clients can make revenue sensitive to changes in budgets or timetables.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If maintenance and energy investments proceed as planned, long-term demand could support volumes in both segments.
- A strengthened balance sheet and net cash position may allow acquisitions and investments without immediate pressure on debt 1.
- Vertical integration and regional presence could support margins if projects are well managed.
What would break the thesis
- Infrastructure projects with thin margins can be hit by higher costs or delays, especially if contracts are not indexed.
- If public allocations are reduced or postponed, workload could fall faster than expected.
- Competition from large national operators may limit price increases and the ability to win bigger contracts.
What to watch
- Development of turnover and EBITA margin by segmentQ1 2027
- Level of net cash and its use for acquisitions2027
- Implementation timetable of the national transport plan2027
- Dividend policy and proposal to the annual general meetingnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Infrea operates through two segments: Mark & Anläggning (groundworks and civil construction) and Beläggning (asphalting and asphalt production). The company functions as a holding with strong local subsidiaries that keep an entrepreneurial regional culture while receiving central support on procurement, expertise, machinery and financing. In 2025, the Mark & Anläggning subsidiaries had combined turnover of 1 507 Mkr 1, and the Beläggning subsidiaries 583 Mkr 1. The group focused its portfolio on infrastructure after selling the Vatten & Avlopp segment and winding down Mikaels Grävtjänst 1.
The business model combines the speed of local firms with the stability of a larger group. The company reports that it eliminated net debt and ended the year with a net cash position of 2,6 Mkr 1, which gives it flexibility for acquisitions, a stated strategic goal. Revenue comes largely from project work with variable duration, and profitability depends on accurate cost estimation and project revenue recognition 1.
The company sets three financial targets: profitability, a strong balance sheet with lower leverage than competitors, and continuous dividends to shareholders 1. The dividend for 2024 was 0,50 kr per share 1, which indicates a distribution policy but is not a commitment for future periods.
Segments
Mark & Anläggning
The segment covers groundworks, excavation, foundations, finishing and services for public clients such as Trafikverket and municipalities, as well as clients in energy and industry. The nine subsidiaries operate mainly in Sörmland, Västra Götaland, Halland, western Skåne, southern Stockholm, Jämtland and Dalarna. They carry out around 400 projects a year 1.
Beläggning
The segment provides asphalting, milling, poured asphalt and coloured asphalt, with in-house production at three asphalt plants. Activity is concentrated in Östergötland, Sörmland, Västra Götaland, Mälardalen and Stockholm 1. Owning production gives control over the value chain.
Market context
The Swedish civil construction market is estimated at 268 bn SEK, of which Infrea addresses about 115 bn SEK 1. The Prognoscentret forecast points to annual growth of around 5–6 percent to 2028 1. The national transport plan for 2026–2037 provides for investments of up to 1 171 bn SEK 1, a large share of which goes to maintenance, while energy and defence (NATO-related requirements) add further demand 1.
The market is shaped by the accumulated maintenance backlog on roads and railways, and by Svenska Kraftnät's grid investments, which could double from 2025 levels by 2028 1. Regional differences and project type influence the effects, and pricing and contract-margin pressure can vary.
Competitive position
In both segments Infrea competes with large national operators and with local firms active only in narrow areas 1. Its stated advantages are regional presence and vertical integration, including in-house asphalt production.
Competition depends on region and project type. Large operators can offer capacity and complex projects, while local firms can win smaller contracts through close relationships with clients 1.
- NCC
National construction operator named by the company as a competitor in both segments 1.
- Peab
National construction and asphalting operator, named as a direct competitor 1.
- Skanska
International construction group, cited as a competitor with national reach 1.
- Svevia
Road infrastructure operator, named as a competitor with national reach 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Infrea AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.