olivLaw · European equity research
Lucara Diamond Corp. LUC.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Lucara Diamond Corp. operates the Karowe open-pit diamond mine in Botswana and sells rough diamonds mainly through tenders and the Clara platform. The company is in a period of investment in the underground expansion of the mine, and revenue fell in 2023 compared with the prior year, to 177.371 million USD.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Lucara Diamond Corp. (LUC.ST) stock was 0.92 SEK (+0.66% on the day), with beta 0.15, 52-week range 0.91–1.99 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 34.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.85 – 1.09
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.28 · band width 24.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.10 / 1.39
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.05 / -0.06
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −15.6% | −0.6% | −14.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −18.1% | −4.2% | −14.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −44.5% | +4.3% | −48.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −27.8% | +7.5% | −35.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −28.4% | +9.9% | −38.3 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | −67.5% | +49.8% | −117.4 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −79.6% | +42.8% | −122.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 230.1 m | 212.9 m | 177.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −7.5% | −16.7% |
| Net income | 23.8 m | 40.4 m | -20.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +69.7% | −149.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +50.0% | −144.4% |
| net % | 10.4% | 19.0% | -11.4% |
| Free cash flow | 68.1 m | 77.2 m | 49.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 13.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 242.1 m USD
- Total assets
- 575.8 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.84x
- ROE
- -7.9%
- ROA
- -3.8%
- FCF margin
- 27.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 230.1 m | 212.9 m | 177.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 154.9 m | 128.3 m | 117.0 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 75.1 m | 84.6 m | 60.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 49.7 m | 25.0 m | 18.3 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 3.7 m | 3.7 m | 4.5 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 45.4 m | 64.8 m | 12.6 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Income tax | 21.6 m | 24.4 m | 32.8 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Net income | 23.8 m | 40.4 m | -20.2 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 27.0 m | 26.4 m | 13.3 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Receivables | 38.8 m | 33.1 m | 35.1 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Inventories | 36.5 m | 38.4 m | 34.5 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Current assets | 102.3 m | 100.3 m | 85.9 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 20.7 m | 18.2 m | 6.2 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Total assets | 412.0 m | 495.8 m | 575.8 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 51.8 m | 59.9 m | 102.5 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 163.0 m | 225.8 m | 333.7 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Equity | 249.0 m | 270.1 m | 242.1 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 83.4 m | 96.2 m | 63.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Capex | 15.3 m | 19.0 m | 14.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | 68.1 m ≈ | 77.2 m ≈ | 49.0 m ≈ | esef· 23 Apr 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -97.5 m | -125.4 m | -115.8 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | 36.8 m | 29.1 m | 39.7 m | esef· 23 Apr 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
10% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -11.4% | 14 (vs peers) | 60% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 3 (on a fixed band) | 40% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial3/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial14/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LUCARA DIAMOND CORP. (LUC.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 177.4 m USD in 2023; YoY growth -16.7%; net margin -11.4%; ROE -7.9%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -11.4%
- Current ratio: 0.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LUC.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lucara Diamond Corp. operates the Karowe open-pit diamond mine in Botswana and sells rough diamonds mainly through tenders and the Clara platform. The company is in a period of investment in the underground expansion of the mine, and revenue fell in 2023 compared with the prior year, to 177.371 million USD 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company operates a producing mine and earns revenue from rough diamonds, giving it a business model directly tied to the resource it extracts 1.
- The Karowe mine accounts for almost all group revenue, and the segment reported positive income from operations in 2023 1.
- After the balance sheet date the company obtained an extension of its working capital facility, supporting financial flexibility 1.
Weaknesses
- One customer generated a very large share of revenue, which increases dependence on a single buyer 1.
- The company reported a net loss in 2023 after a profit in the prior year, and revenue declined 1.
- Operations depend on completing underground expansion works whose costs and timing have already changed 1.
Opportunities
- If the underground expansion is completed as planned, the company could access resources below the current pit and extend the life of operations 1.
- If diamond prices recover, revenue and cash flow could benefit significantly from existing volumes 1.
- The Clara platform offers a sales route with short payment terms, which could reduce credit risk compared with the traditional system 1.
Threats
- Weaker demand for diamonds or excess supply could push prices down and pressure revenue 1.
- A tax dispute with the Botswana authorities could lead to additional payments if the objection is not upheld 1.
- Changes in interest rates could affect the cost of floating-rate debt that is not fully hedged by swaps 1.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A single customer generated a major share of revenue, and losing this buyer could quickly affect turnover 1.
- Diamond priceshigh
Prices are driven by external factors, and oversupply could deteriorate revenue and operating cash flow 1.
- Execution risk of the underground expansionmedium
Schedule updates have lengthened construction and raised costs, which could delay the project's benefits 1.
- Currency and interest rate exposurelow
Revenue is in US dollars while costs are in Botswana pula, and exposure to floating interest rates could affect net income 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the underground expansion is completed on time and diamond prices stabilise, the company could return to profitable operations 1.
- The extension of the working capital facility could support financial flexibility during the investment period 1.
- The Clara sales structure, with fast payments, could reduce exposure to credit risk 1.
What would break the thesis
- If demand for diamonds remains weak, prices could fall and reduce revenue and cash flow 1.
- Revenue concentration in one customer could amplify the impact of any interruption in that relationship 1.
- If the tax dispute does not resolve favourably or expansion delays grow, costs could exceed estimates 1.
What to watch
- Price trends for rough and polished diamondsquarterly
- Progress of the Karowe underground expansion and updated costs2025
- Funding of the COF reserve before the payment deadlineJune 30, 2025
- Outcome of the Botswana tax objectionnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company's primary business is the operation of an open-pit diamond mine, Karowe, in Botswana, according to the notes to the consolidated financial statements 1. It has two operating segments: the Karowe Mine and Corporate and other. Revenue comes from the sale of rough diamonds, the margin earned on sales through Clara and, for a period, polished diamond sales through HB, a sales agreement terminated on September 28, 2023 1.
Segments
Karowe Mine
The Karowe segment generated almost all group revenue in 2023, namely 172,400 thousand USD out of a total of 177,371 thousand USD, and its income from operations was 62,536 thousand USD 1.
Corporate and other
This segment has no mining activity and generated modest revenue in 2023, while its operating loss remained negative, in line with the holding company's administrative costs 1.
Market context
Prices for rough and polished diamonds softened in the first half of 2023 after significant price improvements between late 2021 and mid-2022, according to the annual report 1. The market depends on global consumption, demand and supply patterns and the availability of capital for diamond manufacturers, factors outside the company's control 1.
Trends
- Underground expansion timelinemixed
The company announced an update to the work schedule that extended construction and raised the estimated capital cost, which was treated as an impairment indicator at June 30, 2023. Commitments for the project remain significant 1.
- Softening diamond pricesheadwind
Prices declined after the mid-2022 peak, and if supply exceeds demand this could lead to price deterioration and lower revenue and operating cash flow 1.
- Financing through credit facilitiestailwind
After the balance sheet date the company received an extension of its working capital facility to 2031, with the amount amended, which could support liquidity if financing conditions remain favourable 1.
- Tax exposure in Botswanaheadwind
The Botswana revenue authority issued an additional assessment for fiscal years 2016-2020, which the company has paid and disputed. The outcome of the objection is uncertain and could affect future costs 1.
Competitive position
The diamond market includes large and smaller producers that sell through tenders and long-term contracts, so prices and access to buyers depend on the industry as a whole. The sources provided do not identify competitors in detail, so the comparison remains limited to general market factors 1.
- Open-pit diamond producers
General competitors in the rough diamond market, not named in the source provided.
- Diamond tender buyers
The company's main sales channel, where prices are formed in competition with other sellers.
- Marketing and polishing partners
Players in the value chain that can influence polished diamond prices and market access.
- Other African mining project developers
Companies competing for capital and investor attention in the diamond sector.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202323 Apr 2024
- Annual report 202209 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Lucara Diamond Corp. · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.