olivLaw · European equity research
Lundin Gold Inc. LUG.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Lundin Gold Inc. is a mining company headquartered in Vancouver with an office in Quito, Ecuador, operating through Ecuadorian subsidiaries. Its annual report for the year ended December 31, 2024 shows a corporate structure being simplified, which makes the situation of its Ecuadorian entities central for investors.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG.ST) stock was 663.80 SEK (+3.98% on the day), with beta 0.68, 52-week range 509.60–844.50 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 577.26 – 687.58
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.78 · band width 17.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 638.85 / 645.77
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.93 / -5.90
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.2% | −0.6% | +10.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +13.5% | −4.2% | +17.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +2.4% | +4.3% | −1.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −15.7% | +7.5% | −23.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −0.6% | +9.9% | −10.5 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | +386.7% | +49.8% | +336.8 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | +770.0% | +42.8% | +727.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 815.7 m | 902.5 m | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +10.6% | +32.2% | +49.4% |
| Net income | 73.6 m | 179.5 m | 426.1 m | 792.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +144.0% | +137.4% | +85.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.31 | 0.75 | 1.76 | 3.27 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +141.9% | +134.7% | +85.8% |
| net % | 9.0% | 19.9% | 35.7% | 44.4% |
| Free cash flow | 372.1 m | 471.2 m | 580.0 m | 937.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 630.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.53x
- ROE
- 61.4%
- ROA
- 47.8%
- FCF margin
- 52.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 815.7 m | 902.5 m | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 445.9 m | 467.3 m | 489.7 m | 556.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 369.8 m | 435.2 m | 703.4 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 130.6 m | 136.6 m | 137.0 m | 135.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 240.8 m | 85.3 m | 266.5 m | 0 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 177.3 m | 285.0 m | 634.1 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 103.7 m | 105.6 m | 208.1 m | 331.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 73.6 m | 179.5 m | 426.1 m | 792.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.31 | 0.75 | 1.76 | 3.27 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 236.7 m | 239.2 m | 241.4 m | 242.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 2.76 | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 363.4 m | 268.0 m | 349.2 m | 630.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 89.8 m | 89.4 m | 88.2 m | 92.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 635.3 m | 533.9 m | 674.5 m | 983.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 781.3 m | 718.9 m | 695.7 m | 664.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 345.4 m | 63.7 m | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 322.6 m | 241.9 m | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 440.5 m | 187.0 m | 215.5 m | 388.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 816.8 m | 512.4 m | 311.2 m | 423.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 852.1 m | 955.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 237.3 m | 236.1 m | 239.4 m | 240.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 426.1 m | 519.4 m | 662.4 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 54.0 m | 48.2 m | 82.4 m | 86.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 372.1 m ≈ | 471.2 m ≈ | 580.0 m ≈ | 937.1 m ≈ | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -60.1 m | -53.5 m | -93.5 m | -97.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -264.1 m | -561.2 m | -487.5 m | -644.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 47.0 m | 94.9 m | 143.8 m | 663.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 36.23 – 110.48 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E50.75 – 110.48 (Mid 69.57)25 companies used · median multiple 21.3x · quartiles 15.5x – 33.8xAAK.ST, ACAD.ST, AFRY.ST, ALFA.ST, ALIG.ST, ALLEI.ST, ALTRA.ST, APOTEA.ST, AQ.ST, ARPL.ST, ASKER.ST, ATIC.ST, ATRLJ-B.ST, ATT.ST, B3.ST, BHG.ST, BOL.ST, BOOZT.ST, BORG.ST, BRAV.ST, BUFAB.ST, CAMX.ST, CARA.ST, CEVI.ST, COOR.ST
- Dividend discount (DDM)36.23 – 48.72 (Mid 41.56)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 44.4% | 100 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 118.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 29.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 119.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 70.8% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial70/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 49.4%; net margin 44.4%; ROE 61.4%.
The estimated value range is 43.49–79.60 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 44.4%
- FCF conversion: 118.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 29.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 119.3%
- Current ratio: 2.5x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 70.8%
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LUG.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lundin Gold Inc. is a mining company headquartered in Vancouver with an office in Quito, Ecuador, operating through Ecuadorian subsidiaries. Its annual report for the year ended December 31, 2024 shows a corporate structure being simplified, which makes the situation of its Ecuadorian entities central for investors.
SWOT
Strengths
- The corporate structure was simplified in 2024, which may reduce administrative complexity.
- Financial statements are prepared under IFRS and approved by the board, providing transparency.
- Operating subsidiaries are wholly owned, giving control over the activity.
Weaknesses
- Activity is concentrated in one country, increasing exposure to local risks.
- Carrying values depend on reserve and cost estimates that can be revised.
- Decommissioning provisions require complex estimates and can fluctuate.
Opportunities
- The change in functional currency could reduce volatility from exchange differences.
- Development of existing projects could increase resource value if reserves expand.
- A simpler structure could ease financing and management of the group.
Threats
- Regulatory changes in Ecuador could affect operating conditions.
- A fall in the gold price could affect the economic viability of projects.
- Rising decommissioning costs could reduce margins if estimates change.
Risks
- Geographic concentrationhigh
Operations are concentrated in Ecuador, exposing the company to local political and regulatory risks.
- Reserve assumptionshigh
Changes in reserve estimates or cost assumptions could lead to adjustments in carrying values.
- Decommissioning provisionsmedium
Regulatory or cost changes could increase site restoration obligations.
- Gold price exposuremedium
Declines in the metal price could affect impairment tests and deferred taxes.
- Deferred taxeslow
Estimates of future taxable profit and profit repatriation involve judgments that may be revised.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A simplified corporate structure and a U.S. dollar functional currency could reduce complexity and accounting volatility.
- Full control of operating subsidiaries gives flexibility in managing assets in Ecuador.
- If reserves are confirmed or expanded, project value could support activity growth.
What would break the thesis
- Geographic concentration in Ecuador could expose the company to political or regulatory change.
- Carrying values depend on assumptions that may be revised, and revisions could affect results.
- Decommissioning obligations could rise and reduce margins if costs change.
What to watch
- Effects of the functional currency change on results2025
- Updates on mineral reserves and resourcesnext 10-K
- Trend in decommissioning provisions at Fruta del Norte2025
- Confirmation that the corporate structure simplification is complete2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company was originally incorporated in British Columbia and continued under the Canada Business Corporations Act in 2002, according to the annual report 1. Its head office is in Vancouver, and it has an office in Quito, Ecuador 1. The consolidated financial statements are prepared under IFRS, and subsidiaries include Canadian, Ecuadorian and Singaporean entities 1.
In 2024 the company simplified its corporate structure through the wind-up of Aurelian Menor Inc. and SurNorte Holdings II Pte. Ltd. 1. Operating entities in Ecuador, such as Aurelian Ecuador S.A. and SurNorte S.A., remain wholly owned by the group 1.
The report mentions site restoration and decommissioning obligations related to Fruta del Norte, indicating the group's mining activity in this project 1. The functional currency of Lundin Gold Inc. changed from Canadian dollars to U.S. dollars effective January 1, 2025, to reflect its financing structure 1.
Segments
Market context
The annual report does not detail market share or the size of the gold industry in the source provided. Gold prices and market conditions feed into estimates used for mineral property valuation and deferred tax provisions, per the accounting policies 1. The analysis could be extended with data from future quarterly reports.
Estimates of reserves and resources, metal prices and operating costs influence the valuation of mineral properties and the recognition of deferred taxes 1. If these assumptions change, carrying values could be adjusted.
Trends
- Change in functional currencymixed
From 2025 the functional currency of several entities changed to U.S. dollars, which could reduce the effects of exchange differences on results 1.
- Simplified corporate structuretailwind
The wind-up of certain entities in 2024 indicates an effort to reduce the group's complexity 1.
- Metal prices and reserve assumptionsmixed
Gold prices influence impairment testing and reserve value; changes can alter the economic viability of projects 1.
- Decommissioning obligationsheadwind
Provisions for decommissioning and site restoration are remeasured each reporting period, and regulatory changes could increase these obligations 1.
Competitive position
The source provided does not identify direct competitors. A comparative analysis would require data from reports of other mining companies active in Ecuador or Latin America.
The competitive position cannot be assessed from the annual report alone, as it contains no information on market share or comparisons with other producers.
- Not named in source
The source provided does not list competitors.
- Not named in source
Identifying competitors requires additional sources.
- Not named in source
No comparison is possible from the annual report.
- Not named in source
Additional data is needed for this category.
News & filings
In the press
- Lundin Says Chile Mine Restart After Storm May Take 2-3 WeeksBloomberg Markets · 27 Jul 2026 · EN
- Lundin Oil Execs Accused of Complicity in War Crimes (Video)Bloomberg Markets · 26 Jun 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202528 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202528 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202323 Apr 2024
- Annual report 202323 Apr 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Lundin Gold Inc. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.