olivLaw · European equity research
MilDef Group AB MILDEF.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0016074249 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
MilDef Group AB is a European supplier of tactical IT for defence, combining hardware, software and services for military command and control systems. The company matters now because European defence demand is rising, and its revenue grew at an average of 34.2 percent a year over 2020-2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, MilDef Group AB (MILDEF.ST) stock was 249.40 SEK (−0.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.6 bn SEK, P/E 126.0 on diluted EPS of 1.98 SEK over the last 12 months, beta 0.67, 52-week range 110.20–262.90 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 55.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 214.87 – 267.11
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.66 · band width 21.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 235.97 / 186.67
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 5.66 / 4.56
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.6% | −0.6% | +13.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.8% | −4.2% | +14.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +42.5% | +4.3% | +38.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +108.2% | +7.5% | +100.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +66.2% | +9.9% | +56.2 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | +293.4% | +49.8% | +243.5 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | +434.0% | +42.8% | +391.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 38.4, median 49.4, max 60.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.3% | +70.3% |
| Net income | 69.0 m | -220.3 m | 147.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −419.3% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 1.71 | -5.43 | 1.98 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −417.5% | unavailable |
| net % | 6.0% | -18.3% | 7.2% |
| Free cash flow | 40.6 m | 133.7 m | -31.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 148.6 m SEK
- Financial debt
- unavailable SEK
- Net debt
- unavailable SEK
- Equity
- 1.5 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 2.9 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.10x
- ROE
- 11.3%
- ROA
- 6.4%
- FCF margin
- -1.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 595.0 m | 611.8 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 556.3 m | 589.0 m | 920.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 80.7 m | 84.0 m | 112.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 108.1 m | -209.0 m | 214.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 29.1 m | 25.4 m | 54.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 88.6 m | -222.6 m | 171.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 19.6 m | -2.2 m | 23.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 69.0 m | -220.3 m | 147.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.71 | -5.43 | 1.98 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 40.3 m | 41.0 m | 47.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 81.5 m | 530.4 m | 148.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 290.2 m | 234.4 m | 531.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 748.7 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 122.0 m | 90.4 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 461.5 m | 322.6 m | 911.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 439.7 m | 378.0 m | 635.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 844.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 39.9 m | 40.6 m | 74.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 54.5 m | 144.4 m | -3.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 13.9 m | 10.7 m | 28.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 40.6 m ≈ | 133.7 m ≈ | -31.6 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -68.9 m | -33.3 m | -731.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 38.5 m | 335.1 m | 359.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 3.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 18.6 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.2% | 64 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -21.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.0x | 38 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 126.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet63/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MilDef Group AB (MILDEF.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.0 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth 70.3%; net margin 7.2%; ROE 11.3%.
The estimated value range is 30.73–66.90 SEK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 42.12 SEK, the price of 249.40 SEK leaves a potential of -83.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -492.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.1x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -21.4%
- P/E (TTM): 126.0x
- FCF yield: -0.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| MILDEF.STMilDef Group AB | 18.6 bn | 126.0 | 11.3% | 7.2% | +70.3% | +92% / +263% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MILDEF.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 162.97 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 286.81 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 430.21 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 193.31 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 379.31 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 619.51 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 229.30 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 501.63 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 892.09 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 94.83
- Net margin± 66.38
- Annual revenue growth± 49.51
- Annual dilution± 5.58
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
MilDef Group AB is a European supplier of tactical IT for defence, combining hardware, software and services for military command and control systems. The company matters now because European defence demand is rising, and its revenue grew at an average of 34.2 percent a year over 2020-2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a solid position in tactical IT, with an integrated hardware, software and services portfolio and more than two decades of accumulated experience in the field 1.
- Production and integration capacity has been expanded across several countries, supporting delivery of large contracts 1.
- The model includes recurring revenue from upgrades and from services delivered over time to existing customers 1.
Weaknesses
- Rapid growth depends on acquisitions and on the ability to integrate acquired companies, which can bring operational risks 1.
- The company is active in a limited number of markets, and reliance on a few large public customers can amplify revenue volatility 1.
- Sustainability reporting is voluntary, which may limit the comparability of information for investors 1.
Opportunities
- If European defence budgets stay elevated, the company could gain market share, particularly in markets where it already has subsidiaries 1.
- Joint Nordic procurement and NATO standardisation could open larger and more predictable contracts 1.
- Extending into software and follow-on services could raise margins and recurring revenue 1.
Threats
- The timing of defence investment is uncertain, and a slowdown in pace could weigh on demand for the company's products 1.
- Larger competitors or local suppliers could win contracts through national procurement preferences 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and changes in defence policy can quickly shift customer priorities 1.
Risks
- Dependence on public defence budgetshigh
Revenue depends on government defence spending, which can be changed for political or budgetary reasons.
- Acquisition integration riskmedium
The acquisition strategy may create difficulties integrating acquired companies culturally and operationally.
- Uncertain contract timingmedium
Large contracts can be delayed or reduced, which could weaken short-term revenue visibility.
- Margin pressuremedium
If production costs and components rise faster than contract prices, the adjusted margin could decline.
- Regulation and sustainability requirementslow
Future reporting and compliance requirements could raise administrative costs if the company becomes subject to CSRD.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rapid growth in recent years, combined with European defence demand, could support long-term expansion if budgets remain high.
- The integrated portfolio and presence in several countries could offer an advantage in complete-system contracts.
- Recurring revenue from services and upgrades could stabilise results if new acquisitions are integrated effectively.
What would break the thesis
- If defence investment slows after the current phase, the growth rate could decline significantly.
- Reliance on acquisitions for growth could create risk if integration does not proceed as planned.
- Competition from local suppliers and larger integrators could limit the company's ability to win new contracts.
What to watch
- Trajectory of the adjusted EBITA margin relative to the 2025 levelQ1 2027
- New contracts in Europe and NATO member states2027
- Execution pace of the Rosersberg integration expansion plan2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the 2025 annual report, MilDef presents itself as a supplier of integrated tactical IT systems, with products built for harsh environments and strict military requirements, including displays, computers, switches and communication solutions 1. The company operates in the Nordics, Europe, the United Kingdom, the USA and selected NATO countries, and has expanded production and integration capacity in Sweden, Germany and the United Kingdom, including the Rosersberg integration site 1. The adjusted EBITA margin reached 13.5 percent in 2025, and the average for 2020-2025 was 11.3 percent 1.
The growth strategy rests on three pillars: growth in the Nordics, Europe and selected NATO countries, expansion through partner companies, and acquisition-driven growth 1. The company has completed eight acquisitions since 2011, the largest being roda computer, and aims to move up the value chain from hardware toward integrated systems and software 1.
The business model also includes repeat sales of upgrades and replacement products, which creates recurring revenue from long-term defence customer relationships 1. The company was founded in 1997 and is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm, and its sustainability reporting is voluntary because it is not yet subject to CSRD 1.
Segments
Tactical hardware
The classic segment includes computers, displays, switches and ruggedised equipment, manufactured in Sweden, Germany and the United Kingdom, and forms the base of the company's portfolio 1.
Software and systems integration
The company is extending its offer toward infrastructure software, communications, security and sensor systems, as well as turnkey integrated solutions for defence customers 1.
Services and aftermarket
Services range from strategic IT and change management to implementation and maintenance, and their scale can create recurring revenue as the installed base grows 1.
Market context
The European defence market is in a phase of accelerated investment, and the report describes a capacity and delivery phase in the coming years, followed by a possible normalised growth model 1. EU procurement targets within the Union and the NATO spending commitment could support long-term demand, although timing and scale remain uncertain 1.
The company expects its segment to have growth potential, but the pace depends on national budgets, joint Nordic procurement and NATO interoperability requirements 1. The report also mentions possible market consolidation, without quantifying the total addressable market 1.
Trends
- Rising defence budgetstailwind
Defence investment has risen substantially in Europe and the Nordics after a period of underinvestment, creating demand for modernised equipment 1.
- Digitalisation and AI in defencetailwind
Requirements for high-performance, secure IT and data processing capacity grow with digitalisation, IoT and autonomous systems 1.
- European procurement and autonomymixed
Preference for European suppliers and strategic autonomy requirements may favour the company, but could limit access to contracts outside Europe 1.
- Uncertain rearmament timingheadwind
The report acknowledges there is no transparency on exactly what happens in the rearmament phases, and if the pace slows, demand could be weaker than the company anticipates 1.
Competitive position
The company states there are only a few direct competitors in its tactical IT segment, but the market also includes defence electronics suppliers and larger systems integrators 1. The stated advantage lies in nearly three decades of experience, an integrated hardware-software-services portfolio and presence in several countries 1.
Competition can vary by country and contract type, and national or European procurement can favour local suppliers, which could affect the company's market share 1.
- Ruggedised defence electronics suppliers
Competitors in ruggedised military equipment, described in the report only as a small group of direct rivals.
- Defence systems integrators
Larger companies that can deliver complete systems and compete for integration contracts.
- Military computer manufacturers
Specialised suppliers of computers and displays for harsh environments, active in the same hardware segments.
- Local defence equipment suppliers
National companies that can benefit from preference for domestic procurement in certain states.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / MilDef Group AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.