olivLaw · European equity research
Tradedoubler AB NYOR.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0001552357 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Tradedoubler is a European performance-based digital marketing company that connects advertisers with publishers and influencers and is paid only for measurable results. In 2024 it reported progress on new customers and lower churn, in a market where advertisers are seeking efficiency under tighter budgets. For the reader the relevance lies in its pay-for-performance model and the competitive pressure in its markets.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Tradedoubler AB (NYOR.ST) stock was 6.58 SEK (−0.60% on the day), with market capitalisation 335.6 m SEK, P/E 329.0 on diluted EPS of 0.02 SEK over the last 12 months, beta 0.42, 52-week range 5.70–7.80 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.05 – 6.69
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.83 · band width 10.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.46 / 6.56
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.03 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.5% | −0.6% | +2.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.8% | −4.2% | +11.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.9% | +4.3% | +4.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +1.2% | +7.5% | −6.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −7.3% | +9.9% | −17.2 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | +47.5% | +49.8% | −2.3 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | +12.7% | +42.8% | −30.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 7.1, median 7.8, max 325.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +21.2% | +6.4% | +5.2% |
| Net income | 24.3 m | 25.3 m | -3.2 m | 1.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +4.1% | −112.6% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.54 | 0.56 | -0.07 | 0.02 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +3.7% | −112.5% | unavailable |
| net % | 1.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 0.0% |
| Free cash flow | 57.7 m | 71.7 m | 53.9 m | 120.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 125.7 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 24.4 m SEK
- Net debt
- -101.4 m SEK
- Equity
- 378.0 m SEK
- Total assets
- 1.2 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.06x
- Current ratio
- 0.94x
- ROE
- 0.3%
- ROA
- 0.1%
- FCF margin
- 5.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 346.1 m | 413.9 m | 458.1 m | 492.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 30.1 m | 46.3 m | 45.4 m | 49.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 43.1 m | 39.5 m | 19.8 m | 6.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 13.5 m | 9.2 m | 16.5 m | 12.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 33.4 m | 33.9 m | 6.2 m | 8.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.1 m | 8.6 m | 9.4 m | 7.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 24.3 m | 25.3 m | -3.2 m | 1.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.54 | 0.56 | -0.07 | 0.02 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 93.5 m | 70.2 m | 78.4 m | 125.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 575.4 m | 610.4 m | 687.0 m | 666.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.0 m | 4.8 m | 4.4 m | 3.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 311.4 m | 371.9 m | 388.3 m | 364.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 68.5 m | 74.7 m | 80.3 m | 77.3 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 68.3 m | 33.1 m | 24.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 621.4 m | 678.7 m | 749.1 m | 709.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 307.7 m | 333.2 m | 398.6 m | 378.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 45.0 m | 45.1 m | 45.5 m | 51.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 59.4 m | 74.1 m | 55.9 m | 122.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.7 m | 2.4 m | 2.0 m | 1.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 57.7 m ≈ | 71.7 m ≈ | 53.9 m ≈ | 120.7 m ≈ | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -41.0 m | -63.2 m | -44.8 m | -40.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -26.9 m | -33.8 m | -5.0 m | -23.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 1.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 35 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 335.6 m SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet5
- Returns7
- Quality41
- Growth44
- Valuation44
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 35/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.8% | 17 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.0% | 22 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 11,831.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.7% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -66.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 12 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 329.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 36.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.5% | 7 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet5/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality41/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial7/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TradeDoubler Aktiebolag (NYOR.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.2 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth 5.2%; net margin 0.0%; ROE 0.3%.
The estimated value range is 16.06–21.56 SEK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 18.35 SEK, the price of 6.58 SEK leaves a potential of 178.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 64.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 35/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 11,831.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.7%
- FCF yield: 36.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 1.8%
- Net margin: 0.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -66.7%
- Interest coverage: 0.6x
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- P/E (TTM): 329.0x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.5%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NYOR.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 4.13 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 7.28 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 10.94 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 4.52 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 8.92 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 14.64 Total return 122% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 4.95 Total return -25% · Per year -6% | 10.92 Total return 66% · Per year 11% | 19.59 Total return 198% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 2.23
- Net margin± 1.56
- Annual revenue growth± 1.21
- Annual dilution± 0.13
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tradedoubler is a European performance-based digital marketing company that connects advertisers with publishers and influencers and is paid only for measurable results. In 2024 it reported progress on new customers and lower churn, in a market where advertisers are seeking efficiency under tighter budgets. For the reader the relevance lies in its pay-for-performance model and the competitive pressure in its markets.
SWOT
Strengths
- The pay-for-performance model reduces advertiser risk, since payment depends on measured results. The technology platform and tracking systems are described as the core of the offering.
- The company has a broad base of brands and publishers, and a significant part of revenue comes from long-term relationships. Presence in several European countries offers geographic diversification.
- Leadership in some markets and the integration of AI-based analysis tools could support differentiation from competitors.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on clients' marketing budgets makes revenue sensitive to economic cycles and spending cuts.
- Competition is intense in Western Europe, where the company holds challenger positions or ranks among the top three to four, not leadership.
- The reporting describes significant goodwill and intangible assets, and any future impairment could affect results.
Opportunities
- Extending Metapic and influencer marketing to more markets could open new revenue sources.
- The new offices in Miami, Mexico and Australia could support growth in the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region.
- Selling additional services to existing clients could increase the value of relationships with large brands.
Threats
- Restrictions on user tracking and data protection rules may reduce the accuracy of conversion attribution.
- Large global platforms could compete on price or technology, which could limit the company's margins.
- Weaker consumption and high inflation could lead advertisers to cut marketing budgets or reduce reliance on external channels.
Risks
- Operational and IT security riskhigh
Operations depend on IT and communication systems, and an outage or security incident could affect service delivery. The company mentions a dedicated security function for these systems.
- Data protection regulation riskhigh
Personal data protection and GDPR requirements impose compliance costs and may restrict how users are tracked. Breaches could lead to sanctions and loss of client trust.
- Asset impairment riskmedium
The company carries significant goodwill and other intangible assets, tested annually for impairment. The report states that future impairments cannot be ruled out.
- Market and competition riskmedium
Rapid technological change and the entry of large players could reduce market share or margins. Pressure is higher in countries where the company is not a leader.
- Client spending risklow
A weak economic cycle could lead to lower marketing budgets, directly affecting transaction volumes and commission revenue.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the pay-for-performance model keeps winning market share, the company could benefit from demand for measurable and cost-effective marketing.
- Improved client retention and growth in new customers, as described for 2024, could support more stable growth.
- Extending Metapic and additional services to existing clients could add revenue streams and reduce dependence on a single channel.
What would break the thesis
- If marketing budgets stay under pressure from inflation and weaker consumption, commission revenue could stagnate or decline.
- Restrictions on user tracking could reduce attribution accuracy and the appeal of the model for advertisers.
- Intense competition in Western Europe and pressure from global players could limit margins and growth capacity.
What to watch
- Development of turnover and EBITDA by segment in the quarterly reportQ1 2027
- Pace of new customer growth and the level of client churn2027
- Results of Metapic and the expansion into new markets2027
- Any goodwill and intangible asset impairment in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Tradedoubler offers performance-based digital marketing, mainly partner marketing and influencer marketing, supported by its own technology platform for tracking conversions. The model is simple: the advertiser pays only for results such as leads or sales, the publisher receives a commission, and Tradedoubler takes a share of the commission for tracking and enabling the transaction. According to the 2024 annual report, the company operates mainly in Europe, with headquarters in Stockholm and offices in several regions.
Revenue is structured by geographic segment, and in 2024 most of the turnover came from Nordics, France and Benelux, DACH, South, and UK and Ireland. The company relies on a network of over 3 000 brands and hundreds of thousands of publishers, so revenue also depends on long-term relationships with large customers. Expansion outside Europe, including new offices in Australia, Miami and Mexico, is presented as an extension of the existing customer base.
Tradedoubler names as priorities growing market share, expanding the Metapic influencer marketing service and capturing more business from existing brand relationships. The company says artificial intelligence and machine learning help optimise campaigns and analyse them in real time. Cost structure and financial targets are tracked through EBITDA reporting by segment and business line.
Segments
Partner Marketing
Partner Marketing is the main business area and involves managing relationships between advertisers and publishers on a commission basis for results. Most of the 2024 turnover by business line comes from this segment, and the tracking platform and automated payments are central to the offering. The model is sensitive to online sales volumes and advertiser budgets.
Influencer Marketing
Influencer Marketing connects brands with creators and social profiles through the Metapic service, which has been expanded to several markets over the past two years. The annual report shows a smaller share of revenue than Partner Marketing, but with growth potential if brands shift budgets toward creator-led formats. This is also the area where the company says it can gain market share.
Market context
Tradedoubler is active in the European performance-based digital marketing market, where advertisers look for spending directly linked to results rather than just exposure. The company says it is a leader in Spain and Poland and holds challenger positions in Italy and the Nordics, while in Germany, the UK and Benelux it ranks among the top three to four players. Competition is more intense in Western Europe, where growth depends on winning market share.
Clients include e-commerce companies, brands, agencies and digital platforms, and demand depends on macroeconomic conditions and marketing budgets. The report notes that high inflation and weaker consumption have pushed advertisers to seek more cost-effective alternatives. The market is described as technologically fast-changing, creating both opportunities and risks.
Trends
- Pressure on marketing budgetsmixed
Inflation and weaker consumption are pushing advertisers to look for cheaper and more measurable solutions. For a pay-for-performance model this can create opportunities, but it could also reduce the overall spending clients are willing to allocate.
- Growth of influencer marketingtailwind
Demand for creator-based and social media campaigns remains high, and the Metapic service has been extended to several markets. If this trend holds, it could support revenue diversification beyond partner marketing.
- Artificial intelligence in optimisationmixed
AI and machine learning tools are used for real-time analysis and campaign optimisation. The company presents them as a competitive advantage, but rapid adoption by competitors could reduce differentiation.
- Data privacy regulationheadwind
Privacy and data protection requirements, including GDPR, raise compliance costs. Restrictions on user tracking may reduce visibility of conversion attribution, which is central to the company's model.
Competitive position
Tradedoubler competes with affiliate networks, influencer marketing platforms and performance marketing agencies offering similar services in European markets. The company's stated advantages are its local presence in several countries, its technology platform and its large network of brands and publishers. It says it holds leader or challenger positions in several countries, but competition remains intense in Western Europe.
Competitive pressure is amplified by global players that can invest more in technology and geographic expansion. If they manage to offer better attribution or simpler integrations, they could target the segments where Tradedoubler has the greatest weight.
- Awin
Global affiliate network active in several European markets, a direct competitor in partner marketing.
- Impact
Partnership and performance marketing platform present in international markets, competing for large advertisers.
- CJ Affiliate
International affiliate network whose offerings overlap with performance marketing.
- Upfluence
Influencer marketing platform relevant to the creator and social campaign segment.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202528 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202309 Jul 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Tradedoubler AB · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.