olivLaw · European equity research
Oncopeptides AB ONCO.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0009414576 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Oncopeptides AB develops and commercialises Pepaxti, a peptide-linked medicine for relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma, built on its patented PDC platform. The company is still in the European commercial launch phase with large operating losses, which makes sales growth and financing the key points to watch.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Oncopeptides AB (ONCO.ST) stock was 1.70 SEK (−1.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 385.7 m SEK, beta 0.62, 52-week range 1.27–5.80 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 43.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.17 – 2.50
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.40 · band width 72.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.93 / 1.80
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / -0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −17.2% | −0.6% | −16.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.9% | −4.2% | +10.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +33.8% | +4.3% | +29.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −64.6% | +7.5% | −72.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −66.1% | +9.9% | −76.0 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | −76.9% | +49.8% | −126.8 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −65.0% | +42.8% | −107.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.4 m | 35.2 m | 31.6 m | 71.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +321.5% | −10.1% | +124.7% |
| Net income | -338.0 m | -249.1 m | -284.6 m | -249.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -4.11 | -2.76 | -1.71 | -1.10 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -4,044.9% | -707.3% | -899.3% | -350.9% |
| Free cash flow | -423.0 m | -279.6 m | -260.9 m | -222.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 82.3 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 126.7 m SEK
- Net debt
- 44.4 m SEK
- Equity
- -58.9 m SEK
- Total assets
- 135.4 m SEK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.61x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -131.5%
- FCF margin
- -313.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.4 m | 35.2 m | 31.6 m | 71.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.0 k | -1.1 m | 2.7 m | 2.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 8.3 m | 36.3 m | 29.0 m | 68.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 217.7 m | 106.9 m | 121.2 m | 103.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | -349.4 m | -253.4 m | -283.5 m | -224.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 883.0 k | 5.8 m | 16.6 m | 32.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -337.7 m | -248.4 m | -284.2 m | -248.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 271.0 k | 664.0 k | — | — | esef· 09 Jul 2024verified |
| Net income | -338.0 m | -249.1 m | -284.6 m | -249.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -4.11 | -2.76 | -1.71 | -1.10 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 344.5 m | 173.4 m | 178.5 m | 82.3 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 0 | 2.4 m | 4.4 m | 8.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 364.0 m | 202.9 m | 217.1 m | 117.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 10.5 m | 8.2 m | 6.1 m | 3.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 385.3 m | 238.4 m | 244.2 m | 135.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 106.5 m | 121.9 m | 126.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 85.7 m | 44.9 m | 51.4 m | 45.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 91.0 m | 181.6 m | 189.9 m | 194.3 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 294.3 m | 56.8 m | 54.3 m | -58.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 82.2 m | 90.3 m | 166.4 m | 226.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -420.5 m | -279.5 m | -260.6 m | -222.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.5 m | 116.0 k | 357.0 k | 0 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -423.0 m ≈ | -279.6 m ≈ | -260.9 m ≈ | -222.9 m ≈ | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.5 m | -116.0 k | 496.0 k | 0 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 392.4 m | 106.9 m | 263.8 m | 128.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 385.7 m SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -350.9% | 3 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 104.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -6.9x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -57.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial3/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Oncopeptides AB (ONCO.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 71.1 m SEK in 2025; YoY growth 124.7%; net margin -350.9%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 104.2%
- Current ratio: 2.6x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -350.9%
- Interest coverage: -6.9x
- FCF yield: -57.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ONCO.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Oncopeptides AB develops and commercialises Pepaxti, a peptide-linked medicine for relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma, built on its patented PDC platform. The company is still in the European commercial launch phase with large operating losses, which makes sales growth and financing the key points to watch.
SWOT
Strengths
- Patented PDC platform that produces peptide-linked medicines with targeted release inside cancer cells.
- Product approved in the European Union and the United Kingdom, giving the company a real commercial base.
- Real-world evidence programmes, such as HARBOUR, that support the dialogue with prescribers.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a single commercial product, which exposes the company to risks specific to that medicine.
- Lack of in-house manufacturing capacity, which makes the company dependent on subcontractors.
- Large operating losses, with a negative operating result for 2024.
Opportunities
- Wider reimbursement across more European countries could increase sales volume.
- Broader acceptance of new data could encourage physicians to use the product earlier in treatment.
- The OPDC3 candidate could widen the portfolio if its clinical results prove favourable.
Threats
- Price pressure from competitor patent expiries could reduce revenue.
- The lingering negative perception after the US withdrawal could limit adoption in some markets.
- Competition from companies with far greater resources could erode market share.
Risks
- Dependence on a single producthigh
Revenue depends almost entirely on Pepaxti, so any delay or restriction in approval could seriously affect operations.
- Shareholder dilutionmedium
Options and share rights granted could reduce the stake of existing shareholders if fully exercised.
- Reimbursement delayshigh
Pricing and reimbursement procedures in each country can take a long time and could postpone revenue.
- Dependence on subcontractorsmedium
Disruptions at manufacturing or distribution suppliers could interrupt the supply of product.
- Clinical study risksmedium
Unfavourable results or slower studies for new candidates could reduce the value of the portfolio.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Pepaxti sales grow as reimbursement widens, the company could reach a revenue level that supports its operating costs.
- If real-world data confirm clinical benefit, physicians could prescribe the product more often, strengthening its market position.
- If OPDC3 produces positive results, the PDC platform could become a long-term growth driver.
What would break the thesis
- If reimbursement stays slow or prices fall, revenue could remain below expectations and losses could persist.
- If the negative perception linked to earlier studies persists, adoption of the product could remain limited.
- If financing is not secured in time, the company could be forced to scale back activity or issue new shares.
What to watch
- Pepaxti sales trends and reimbursement decisions in the main European countriesQ1 2027
- Interim clinical results for the OPDC3 candidate2027
- Financing needs and any new share issuesnext 10-K
- Management commentary on guidance for the coming year and the status of the European launchQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Oncopeptides is a Swedish biotechnology company listed on Nasdaq Stockholm under the ticker ONCO, focused on treatments for hard-to-treat cancers, mainly multiple myeloma. Its business rests on the patented PDC platform, which produces peptide-linked medicines that release cytotoxic agents rapidly inside cancer cells. The main commercial product is Pepaxti, approved in the European Union and EEA countries as well as the United Kingdom 1.
The company has no manufacturing capacity of its own and relies on subcontractors for production, packaging, distribution and clinical studies. This model lowers fixed costs, but it makes subcontractor compliance with GMP and GCP standards essential for continuity of supply 1.
Ownership and governance are concentrated: the largest shareholders, mainly venture capital funds, control a significant share of votes, and the company paid no dividend for 2024, preferring to reinvest in development 1.
Segments
Pepaxti (melphalan flufenamide)
Pepaxti is the company's only commercial product, approved for adult patients with multiple myeloma who have received at least three prior lines of therapy and whose disease progressed after the last treatment, in combination with dexamethasone 1.
PDC platform and pipeline candidates
The PDC platform generates peptide-linked medicines; OPDC3 is the first candidate of the new generation and remains at an early clinical stage. Revenue from this segment depends on study results and future regulatory decisions, so it is uncertain in the short term 1.
Market context
The target market is multiple myeloma, a rare blood cancer where several classes of therapy already exist and where the inclusion of new medicines in national guidelines is slow. Market access depends on pricing, reimbursement and acceptance by physicians, which can delay revenue even after approval 1.
Reimbursement procedures differ across European countries and can take a long time, and the company notes that patent expiries of competing immunomodulatory products could create price pressure if authorities consider Pepaxti similar to melphalan 1.
Trends
- Price pressure from patent expiriesheadwind
Patent expiry for competing therapies could lower reference prices and might force the company to cut its price to keep reimbursement, which would reduce revenue 1.
- Focus on real-world datatailwind
Studies such as HARBOUR in Germany are used to generate data that support physician decisions and reimbursement access, which could accelerate adoption of the product 1.
- Tighter European health-system scrutinymixed
European authorities increasingly ask for evidence of relative therapeutic value, which can prolong price negotiations but may favour products with solid data 1.
- Regulatory history from earlier studiesheadwind
The US withdrawal and the safety warning linked to the OCEAN study continue to shape the views of prescribers and investors, which could limit adoption in some segments 1.
Competitive position
Oncopeptides competes with international pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, some with far greater financial, technical and distribution resources. Competition includes new therapies based on concepts different from peptide-linked medicines, which could attract physicians ahead of Pepaxti 1.
Competitive risk is amplified because the large existing therapies for multiple myeloma already hold entrenched market shares. The company could lose ground if rivals develop products faster or achieve wider acceptance 1.
- Large international pharmaceutical companies with multiple myeloma therapies
Large companies with greater distribution and marketing resources, named in the source as principal competitors.
- Developers of immunotherapies for cancer
Companies developing new immunological therapies whose concepts could compete with the company's peptide platform.
- Producers of combination therapies for multiple myeloma
Companies offering competing treatment regimens for the same patient population.
- Developers of new peptide-linked conjugates
Companies working on similar technologies that could reach the market after the company's product.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202528 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202309 Jul 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Oncopeptides AB · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.