olivLaw · European equity research
Orexo AB ORX.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0000736415 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Orexo AB is a Swedish pharmaceutical company developing medicines based on its AmorphOX powder formulation technology, with a focus on nasal administration and rescue products such as Izipry and OX640. Although sales remain modest compared with research spending, the company is now focusing its pipeline on commercial partnerships, so its success depends on regulatory approvals and finding partners.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Orexo AB (ORX.ST) stock was 1.39 SEK (−4.01% on the day), with market capitalisation 47.9 m SEK, P/E 0.1 on diluted EPS of -5.89 SEK over the last 12 months, beta 0.62, 52-week range 1.39–35.75 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 7.2
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.74 – 7.88
- below the lower band · %B -0.06 · band width 127.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.71 / 18.49
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.15 / -2.00
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −81.2% | −0.6% | −80.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −90.3% | −4.2% | −86.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −92.3% | +4.3% | −96.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −95.4% | +7.5% | −102.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −94.9% | +9.9% | −104.8 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | −90.9% | +49.8% | −140.8 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −95.6% | +42.8% | −138.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 638.8 m | 29.7 m | 26.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −95.4% | −12.5% |
| Net income | -128.3 m | -203.0 m | 639.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -3.73 | -5.89 | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -20.1% | -683.5% | 2,458.8% |
| Free cash flow | -113.5 m | -35.7 m | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 912.4 m SEK
- Financial debt
- unavailable SEK
- Net debt
- unavailable SEK
- Equity
- 490.6 m SEK
- Total assets
- 1.3 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.70x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 67.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 638.8 m | 29.7 m | 26.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 88.9 m | 18.7 m | 14.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 550.0 m | 11.0 m | 11.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 303.1 m | 295.7 m | 233.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | -109.5 m | -427.2 m | -352.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 51.0 m | 66.9 m | 55.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -140.3 m | -477.5 m | -403.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | -12.0 m | 500.0 k | 300.0 k | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -128.3 m | -203.0 m | 639.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -3.73 | -5.89 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 171.0 m | 123.3 m | 912.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 42.4 m | 60.1 m | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 458.9 m | 446.4 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 81.0 m | 64.7 m | 45.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 173.3 m | 26.9 m | 400.0 k | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 786.6 m | 594.8 m | 1.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 36.5 m | 41.5 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 263.2 m | 231.1 m | 314.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 727.7 m | 721.1 m | 812.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 58.9 m | -126.3 m | 490.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 34.4 m | 34.5 m | — | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -95.0 m | -32.6 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Capex | 18.5 m | 3.1 m | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -113.5 m ≈ | -35.7 m ≈ | — | esef· 08 May 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | 200.8 m | -5.3 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -70.1 m | -15.5 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 47.9 m SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2,458.8% | 100 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -5.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -6.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.1x | 100 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -68.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation56/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Orexo AB (ORX.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 26.0 m SEK in 2025; YoY growth -12.5%; net margin 2,458.8%; ROE 351.0%.
The estimated value range is 287.87–626.73 SEK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 394.62 SEK, the price of 1.39 SEK leaves a potential of 28,290.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 99.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 2,458.8%
- Current ratio: 3.7x
- P/E (TTM): 0.1x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -5.1%
- Interest coverage: -6.4x
- FCF yield: -68.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ORX.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.74 Total return -47% · Per year -47% | 1.32 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 2.00 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 0.59 Total return -58% · Per year -25% | 1.19 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 2.00 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 0.47 Total return -66% · Per year -20% | 1.08 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 2.00 Total return 44% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 0.30
- Net margin± 0.21
- Annual revenue growth± 0.19
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Orexo AB is a Swedish pharmaceutical company developing medicines based on its AmorphOX powder formulation technology, with a focus on nasal administration and rescue products such as Izipry and OX640. Although sales remain modest compared with research spending, the company is now focusing its pipeline on commercial partnerships, so its success depends on regulatory approvals and finding partners.
SWOT
Strengths
- The AmorphOX platform has several years of research behind it and has been validated in several clinical studies, supporting the company's technology position 1.
- Izipry benefits from long-term patent protection, which can secure commercial exclusivity 1.
- Stable formulations without a cold chain offer a logistics advantage over many competing products 1.
Weaknesses
- Sales revenue is very small relative to development spending, leaving the company dependent on external funding 1.
- The lack of a commercial partner for the main products limits the company's ability to generate its own revenue 1.
- The high operating loss shows reliance on available capital to continue its programmes 1.
Opportunities
- A commercial partnership in the United States for Izipry could accelerate access to the naloxone market 1.
- If OX640 achieves favourable results in registration studies, it could enter the anaphylaxis treatment market 1.
- Applying the platform to biomolecules and vaccines could open new large markets 1.
Risks
- Dependence on partnershigh
If the company fails to attract suitable partners, projects could be delayed, scaled back or stopped, affecting the value of the pipeline 1.
- Regulatory riskhigh
Negative study results or refusal by authorities to approve products could delay launches 1.
- Supplier dependencemedium
Production and technology depend on external suppliers and manufacturers whose quality affects delivery reliability 1.
- Currency and interest rate riskmedium
International operations expose the company to currency fluctuations and changes in interest rates 1.
- Loss of key personnelmedium
Reliance on highly specialised researchers means that the departure of a few specialists could slow projects 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Izipry obtains FDA approval and a commercial partner, the company could turn a technology platform into significant revenue.
- The AmorphOX technology, validated in several studies, could be applied in other areas, expanding the pipeline without starting from zero.
- The large naloxone and anaphylaxis markets offer a favourable setting if the company's products differentiate on convenience and stability.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue is still very small, and large operating losses could force the company to raise additional funding on unfavourable terms.
- If partners are not found in time, many programmes could remain stuck in early phases without offsetting revenue.
- Competition from established products could quickly limit the market share of new formulations, even if they are approved.
What to watch
- Status of the updated FDA marketing application for IzipryQ3 2026
- Announcements of commercial partnerships for Izipry in the US2026
- Progress of OX640 towards registration studies and the search for partners2026
- Development of research and development spending and the operating loss2026 annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Orexo operates in pharmaceutical formulation, with the AmorphOX powder platform at its core, enabling stabilisation of sensitive molecules and needle-free nasal administration without relying on a cold chain 1. The company has so far developed and launched four products, Zubsolv, Abstral, Edluar and Diabact, all approved in several markets 1.
In fiscal 2025, net sales were SEK 26.0 million, down from the prior year, while the operating loss amounted to SEK 352.7 million 1. Research and development costs of SEK 233.1 million remained the main cost component 1.
The strategy relies on proprietary development programmes such as Izipry, OX640 and OX390, together with an active search for partners to commercialise them, particularly in the United States 1.
Segments
Rescue products (naloxone and adrenaline)
Izipry, a rescue product for opioid overdose with a high naloxone dose, is in the FDA registration phase, and the company is seeking a partner to commercialise it in the US 1. OX640, a nasal adrenaline formulation for anaphylaxis, is being prepared for registration studies 1.
AmorphOX platform and partnerships
The AmorphOX platform is used both in proprietary programmes and in collaborations with third parties, where the technology can improve the effect of other companies' active substances 1. This approach reduces dependence on internal funding but depends on the company's ability to attract suitable partners 1.
Market context
The global naloxone market was valued at about USD 1.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3.4 billion by 2035, supported by rising opioid overdoses and intranasal administration 1. The anaphylaxis treatment market, at USD 6.6 billion in 2025, is advancing particularly through adrenaline auto-injectors 1.
The vaccine market, estimated at USD 72.8 billion in 2025, and the GLP-1 obesity segment are cited by the company as markets where its technology could be applied 1.
Trends
- Rising opioid overdosestailwind
A growing number of overdoses and wider access to rescue medicines support demand for products such as Izipry 1.
- Intranasal and needle-free administrationmixed
Preference for intranasal and needle-free delivery favours powder formulations, but approvals depend on regulations that may vary 1.
- Cold chain and global distributiontailwind
Stable formulations that need no cold chain could open markets in regions with limited infrastructure, a competitive advantage if authorities accept them 1.
- Funding pressure in biotechnologyheadwind
High development costs push companies to seek partners; if the capital market stays restrictive, negotiations could take longer 1.
Competitive position
Orexo competes in the naloxone market with nasal products already on sale, which the company uses for direct comparison in its studies 1. In the adrenaline market, competition comes from traditional auto-injectors, which OX640 could displace through convenience and stability 1.
- Emergent BioSolutions (Narcan)
The Narcan nasal naloxone product is used as the reference in Orexo's comparative studies; the owner of the Narcan brand is named in the report 1.
- Adrenaline auto-injector manufacturers
Traditional adrenaline auto-injectors are the main alternative for anaphylaxis treatment, which OX640 targets 1.
- Injectable naloxone manufacturers
Injectable formulations are the current standard for reversing overdoses, and Orexo compares its powder formulations with them 1.
- Companies with competing formulation platforms
Other companies offer formulation technologies for nasal delivery or biomolecules, a relevant competition for potential partners 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Orexo AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.