olivLaw · European equity research
Toyota Caetano Portugal, S.A. SCT.LS
Portugal · Euronext Lisbon · ISIN PTSCT0AP0018 · Vertical: Listed companies from Portugal
Toyota Caetano Portugal is a Portuguese industrial group that makes buses and coaches for urban, tourism and airport transport, including zero-emission technologies. The group closed 2025 with consolidated turnover of 667 M€, yet margin pressure and cancelled orders from a major client make the outlook for 2026 uncertain.
At the close of 30 Oct 2026, Toyota Caetano Portugal, S.A. (SCT.LS) stock was 6.70 EUR (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 229.3 m EUR, P/E 9.1 on diluted EPS of 0.73 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.34%, beta -0.01, 52-week range 6.15–8.00 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.13 – 8.31
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 30.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.14 / 6.58
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.12 / -0.00
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 0.0% | −2.2% | +2.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.9% | −3.6% | −3.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.2% | +4.2% | −12.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.9% | +5.8% | −1.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.9% | +7.6% | +1.4 pp | −17.4% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +51.0% | unavailable | +18.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +44.2% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 6.8, median 8.8, max 10.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 17.1 m | 27.8 m | 25.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +62.3% | −9.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +61.1% | −8.8% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -21.0 m | 53.2 m | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 16.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 202.8 m EUR
- Total assets
- 470.7 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.35x
- ROE
- 12.8%
- ROA
- 5.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 36.9 m | 46.5 m | 47.6 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 17.0 m | 28.1 m | 18.6 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 53.9 m ≈ | 74.6 m ≈ | 66.2 m ≈ | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 6.6 m | 8.9 m | 8.1 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 26.2 m | 36.5 m | 34.4 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 8.7 m | 8.3 m | 8.8 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 17.1 m | 27.8 m | 25.1 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.73 | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.36 | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 24.8 m | 24.8 m | 16.6 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 147.1 m | 131.8 m | 165.8 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 271.5 m | 245.8 m | 281.2 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 114.8 m | 125.8 m | 135.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 876.0 k | 612.0 k | 612.0 k | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.5 m | 1.2 m | 1.2 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 455.5 m | 436.4 m | 470.7 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 242.7 m | 193.8 m | 208.1 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 285.5 m | 248.0 m | 267.9 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 170.0 m | 188.4 m | 202.8 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 34.3 m | 34.6 m | 34.2 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -12.9 m | 62.9 m | — | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 8.1 m | 9.7 m | 5.7 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -21.0 m ≈ | 53.2 m ≈ | — | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -19.9 m | -8.1 m | 2.1 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 46.3 m | -54.8 m | -6.4 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 8.7 m | 10.5 m | 12.2 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
30 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 229.3 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.86 – 11.49 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E7.46 – 11.49 (Mid 10.32)7 companies used · median multiple 14.1x · quartiles 10.2x – 15.7xCOR.LS, CTT.LS, EGL.LS, JMT.LS, NVG.LS, SEM.LS, TDSA.LS
- Dividend discount (DDM)4.86 – 6.63 (Mid 5.61)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 227.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.9x | 68 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 46 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.1x | 88 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 24.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.3% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 21.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet59/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns86/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TOYOTA CAETANO PORTUGAL, S.A. (SCT.LS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 13.0%.
The estimated value range is 6.16–9.06 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.96 EUR, the price of 6.70 EUR leaves a potential of 18.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 15.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 227.7%
- P/E (TTM): 9.1x
- FCF yield: 24.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 21.4%
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Portugal · same country · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMT.LSJerónimo Martins Sgps SA | 11.6 bn | 17.9 | 20.5% | 1.8% | +7.6% | −17% / −15% |
| NVG.LSThe Navigator Company, S.A. | 2.2 bn | 14.9 | 10.5% | 7.3% | −5.7% | +1% / −19% |
| SEM.LSSemapa - Sociedade De Investimento E Gestão, Sgps, S.A. | 1.6 bn | 10.0 | 9.3% | 7.4% | −1.6% | +8% / +47% |
| EGL.LSMota - Engil, Sgps S.A. | 1.4 bn | 10.3 | 44.7% | 2.5% | −10.9% | −25% / +47% |
| COR.LSCorticeira Amorim, Sgps, S.A. | 911.9 m | 16.4 | 6.6% | 6.5% | −8.3% | −6% / −25% |
| CTT.LSCtt - Correios De Portugal S.A. | 713.9 m | 14.1 | 20.1% | 4.5% | +16.9% | −29% / +48% |
| NBA.LSNovabase - Sociedade Gestora De Participações Sociais S.A. | 259.6 m | 50.7 | 8.8% | 4.4% | −7.2% | −17% / +34% |
| TDSA.LSTeixeira Duarte, S.A. | 174.9 m | 3.5 | 34.1% | 7.1% | −8.9% | −40% / +508% |
| ESON.LSEstoril-Sol, SGPS S.A. | 32.2 m | — | -25.2% | -20.3% | −2.4% | −33% / −64% |
| RAM.LSRamada Investimentos E Indústria, S.A. | — | — | 8.1% | 85.9% | +0.6% | −12% / +3% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SCT.LS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Toyota Caetano Portugal is a Portuguese industrial group that makes buses and coaches for urban, tourism and airport transport, including zero-emission technologies. The group closed 2025 with consolidated turnover of 667 M€ 1, yet margin pressure and cancelled orders from a major client make the outlook for 2026 uncertain 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A group with a balanced financial structure and high financial autonomy, giving stability in periods of strain.
- A broad range of urban, tourism and airport products, with zero-emission technologies in development.
- The partnership with CRRC and Toyota supports technological and industrial competitiveness.
Weaknesses
- High dependence on a few large clients in tourism, which makes volumes sensitive to their decisions.
- Margins under pressure, with gross profit falling in 2025 compared with the prior year.
- A negative result at CaetanoBus S.A. and the need for internal restructuring.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for zero-emission urban buses, if the new product generation sells well.
- A gradual recovery in international air traffic could support new COBUS orders.
- Expansion into the North American market through COBUS LLC, if tariffs become more predictable.
Threats
- Aggressive competition from Asian manufacturers, which may offer lower prices.
- Uncertainty about how quickly hydrogen buses will be adopted in Europe.
- The risk that complex multi-partner projects cause delays and extra costs.
Risks
- Order cancellationshigh
Cancelling a large part of tourism orders can reduce volumes and affect use of productive capacity.
- Margins under pressuremedium
Higher personnel and external service costs could limit profitability if prices are not adjusted.
- Trade tariffsmedium
Volatile import tariffs could delay the conversion of US opportunities and complicate planning.
- Asian competitionmedium
Pressure from Asian manufacturers could reduce the group's market share in the urban and airport segments.
- Complex projectslow
Executing multi-partner projects could lead to cost or schedule overruns.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the new generation of zero-emission buses sells well, the group could recover volumes lost in tourism.
- A recovery in air traffic and the launch of the COBUS Vega could support growth in the airport segment.
- A solid financial structure leaves room to invest in technology and restructuring.
What would break the thesis
- If tourism cancellations continue, volumes and the absorption of fixed costs could stay under pressure.
- Margins fell in 2025, and Asian competition could limit the ability to raise prices.
- CaetanoBus's negative result suggests restructuring could take longer than expected.
What to watch
- Sales trend of zero-emission urban buses2026
- Impact of restructuring on tourism and UK costs2026
- Launch of the COBUS Vega and airport order flow2026
- Trend of US import tariffs and the pace of COBUS LLCnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Toyota Caetano Portugal group brings together several entities that produce, sell and service buses. CaetanoBus, based in Portugal, builds the bodywork and sells urban, tourism and airport buses 1. Through COBUS Industries the group sells and services airport buses worldwide, and Caetano UK handles the British market 1. On a consolidated basis the group reported EBITDA of 64 M€ and net income of 26 M€ in 2025 1.
Segments
Urban and zero emissions
CaetanoBus expects a more dynamic urban segment in 2026, supported by a broader product range and a new generation of zero-emission urban buses, both battery-electric (BEV) and hydrogen (FCEV) 1.
Airport (COBUS)
COBUS Industries, held by CaetanoBus and Daimler Truck, grew sales and EBITDA in 2025, with a rising share of electric models in its order book 1. Launch of the COBUS Vega model is planned for 2026 1.
Tourism
Tourism was the most affected segment in 2025, due to the cancellation of National Express orders and a longer fleet life, which led to lower production and an internal restructuring 1.
Market context
Trends
- Shift to zero emissionstailwind
Demand for electric and hydrogen buses is growing gradually and the group is widening its range, which could support market share if FCEV adoption in Europe accelerates 1.
- Operator investment cycleheadwind
Transport operators delayed fleet replacement, which reduced tourism and UK sales 1.
- Price and cost pressureheadwind
Inflation and higher personnel costs compressed gross margins, although turnover rose slightly 1.
- US import tariffsmixed
Tariff volatility slowed the conversion of opportunities in North America, where COBUS LLC has started operating 1.
Competitive position
The group faces strong competition from Asian original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), which the report cites as the main pressure on CaetanoBus and COBUS 1. The source does not name competitors, so they cannot be compared directly with figures in these documents.
- Asian bus manufacturers
Cited in the report as the main competitive pressure, without naming specific companies.
- Asian electric bus makers
Competition in the zero-emission segment, where demand and technology are evolving.
- Airport bus suppliers
Rivals in the global airport market, where COBUS is consolidating its sales.
- European coach makers
Competition in the tourism segment, which was hit by lower orders.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202522 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202522 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202422 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202422 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Toyota Caetano Portugal, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.