olivLaw · European equity research
Scandic Hotels Group AB SHOT.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0007640156 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Scandic Hotels Group AB is the largest hotel operator in the Nordics, running hotels across several European countries. In fiscal 2025 net sales rose slightly, to 22 289 MSEK, and the company took over operation of Dalata hotels, extending its footprint in Ireland and the UK.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Scandic Hotels Group AB (SHOT.ST) stock was 104.90 SEK (−0.85% on the day), with market capitalisation 22.6 bn SEK, P/E 36.2 on diluted EPS of 2.90 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.38%, beta 0.71, 52-week range 79.25–105.80 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 94.94 – 107.24
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.81 · band width 12.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 94.17 / 89.38
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.32 / 3.20
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.9% | −0.6% | +13.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +26.2% | −4.2% | +30.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +15.3% | +4.3% | +10.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +7.8% | +7.5% | +0.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.8% | +9.9% | +0.9 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | +176.1% | +49.8% | +126.2 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | +131.3% | +42.8% | +88.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 16.2, median 21.5, max 33.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.9 bn | 22.0 bn | 22.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +0.1% | +1.5% |
| Net income | 532.0 m | 643.0 m | 625.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +20.9% | −2.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.86 | 3.19 | 2.90 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +11.5% | −9.1% |
| net % | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 5.3 bn | 5.3 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 950.0 m SEK
- Financial debt
- unavailable SEK
- Net debt
- unavailable SEK
- Equity
- 3.0 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 52.6 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.32x
- ROE
- 19.7%
- ROA
- 1.2%
- FCF margin
- 23.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.9 bn | 22.0 bn | 22.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 6.6 bn ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 721.0 m | 861.0 m | 809.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 152.0 m | 209.0 m | 185.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 532.0 m | 643.0 m | 625.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.86 | 3.19 | 2.90 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 2.50 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.3 bn | 846.0 m | 950.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 54.0 bn | 53.8 bn | 52.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.1 bn | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 8.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 51.8 bn | 50.5 bn | 49.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 153.8 m | 187.5 m | 215.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6.4 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 5.3 bn ≈ | 5.3 bn ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -521.0 m | -1.1 bn | -1.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -4.8 bn | -5.8 bn | -5.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 52.0 m | 248.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 22.6 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.8% | 33 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 853.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 36.2x | 23 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 23.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.1% | 16 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial16/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation57/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Scandic Hotels Group AB (SHOT.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 22.3 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth 1.5%; net margin 2.8%; ROE 20.3%.
The estimated value range is 34.76–64.14 SEK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 44.40 SEK, the price of 104.90 SEK leaves a potential of -57.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -136.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 853.6%
- FCF yield: 23.6%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- P/E (TTM): 36.2x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| SHOT.STScandic Hotels Group AB | 22.6 bn | 36.2 | 20.3% | 2.8% | +1.5% | +15% / +143% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SHOT.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 60.14 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 106.48 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 160.60 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 54.90 Total return -42% · Per year -17% | 109.70 Total return 12% · Per year 4% | 182.17 Total return 83% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 50.12 Total return -44% · Per year -11% | 113.02 Total return 20% · Per year 4% | 206.63 Total return 114% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 27.43
- Net margin± 19.20
- Annual revenue growth± 16.22
- Annual dilution± 1.61
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Scandic Hotels Group AB is the largest hotel operator in the Nordics, running hotels across several European countries. In fiscal 2025 net sales rose slightly, to 22 289 MSEK 1, and the company took over operation of Dalata hotels, extending its footprint in Ireland and the UK 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Large and well distributed network across six countries, with a substantial room base and own brands.
- Low net debt at year end gives financial flexibility.
- Good position in Norway and Denmark, where demand and prices rose.
Weaknesses
- Earnings per share fell in 2025 and the adjusted EBITDA margin contracted.
- Reliance on long-term leases raises fixed costs.
- Weak performance in Finland and rising central costs weigh on profitability.
Opportunities
- Integrating the Dalata hotels could bring new revenue in Ireland and the UK.
- If the separation of property and hotel operations is completed, the financial structure could become more flexible.
- Growing tourism demand, especially in capital cities, could support prices and occupancy.
Threats
- An economic slowdown in the Nordics could reduce business and leisure travel demand.
- Currency fluctuations have already hurt reported net sales and could continue to do so.
- Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe could affect international tourism.
Risks
- Rent costshigh
Fixed rents and repayments of variable rent could pressure margins if revenues do not grow enough.
- Demand in Finlandmedium
The Finnish market remains weak, and a delayed recovery could weigh on regional results.
- Dalata integrationmedium
Taking over operation of Dalata hotels carries operational and property separation risks.
- Exchange ratesmedium
A stronger Swedish krona reduced reported net sales, and currency moves could repeat this effect.
- Central costslow
Investment in digital and the IT organisation raised central costs and could continue to weigh on profit.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand in Norway and Denmark holds, price increases could support margins over the medium term.
- The Dalata management contract could extend the network without major property investment.
- Very low net debt could leave room for dividends and renovation investment.
What would break the thesis
- If Finland stays weak, pressure on regional profitability could persist.
- Rising fixed rents could limit the ability to turn revenue growth into profit.
- Earnings per share fell in 2025, which could call into question the sustainability of the growth pace.
What to watch
- Completion of the separation of property and hotel operationssecond half 2026
- RevPAR development in Finland after the Helsinki Station renovation2026
- Pace of organic growth against the minimum 5 percent target2026
- Payment of variable rent settlements for 2025first half 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Scandic Hotels Group AB, based in Stockholm, owns the Scandic group fully through its subsidiary Scandic Hotels Holding AB and runs hotel operations in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Germania and Poland 1. At year end 2025 it had 68 592 rooms in operation across 323 hotels, of which 246 are on lease agreements 1. The business model relies on long-term leases, so IFRS 16 has a significant effect on reported results 1.
From 7 November 2025 Scandic operates the Dalata Hotel Group plc hotels under a management agreement, with their revenues included in net sales and adjusted EBITDA but not in occupancy and rate metrics 1. The company has started a carve-out process to separate property and hotel operations, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026 1. Central function costs rose in 2025, mainly due to high activity in digital development and a strengthened IT and commercial organisation 1.
Scandic has three financial targets for 2025–2027: organic net sales growth, an adjusted EBITDA margin, and net debt below a multiple of adjusted EBITDA, plus a dividend policy of at least half of net profit excluding IFRS 16 effects 1. Results are presented both with and without IFRS 16 to give a clear view of the financial position 1.
Segments
Sweden
Net sales in Sweden grew 5.4 percent to 6 964 MSEK, and RevPAR rose to 783 SEK, with the new Scandic Wallin opened in March 2025 contributing positively 1.
Norway
Norway had the strongest operational development, with net sales of 6 387 MSEK and RevPAR of 847 SEK, supported by leisure and business travel demand 1.
Finland
Finland declined, with net sales of 4 552 MSEK and lower adjusted EBITDA, affected by weak demand, new capacity in Helsinki and Vanda, and the renovation of Scandic Helsinki Station 1.
Market context
In Ireland and the UK, RevPAR rose about five and two percent respectively, supported by tourism and a gradual recovery in business travel, a context relevant to the new Dalata operations 1.
Trends
- Recovery in tourism and business traveltailwind
Demand for business and leisure travel grew in several Nordic markets, pushing up prices and occupancy, especially in Norway and Copenhagen 1.
- Weak economy in Finlandheadwind
Weak economic growth and the prolonged effects of the war in Ukraine reduced demand and prices in Finland, which could keep pressure on this market 1.
- Rising rent costsheadwind
Rents increased due to indexation of fixed leases and new hotels with higher fixed rents, which compresses margins if revenues do not grow at the same pace 1.
- Expansion through management contractsmixed
Taking over operation of Dalata hotels under a management contract extends the network without direct property investment, but brings integration and separation risks 1.
Competitive position
Scandic competes mainly with international and local hotel chains in the Nordics and Central Europe, on location, price and guest experience. The analysed annual report does not detail competitors, so the description below is limited.
- International hotel chains
Direct competition in large Nordic cities for business and leisure guests, with no comparative data in the source.
- Local Nordic hotel operators
Independent hotels or regional chains competing on price and in secondary markets.
- Operators in Ireland and the UK
Competition in the markets where Scandic has taken over operation of Dalata hotels.
- Chains in Germany and Poland
Competition in the group's expansion markets, where the source gives no further detail.
News & filings
In the press
- Hilton Bets on Scandic to Crack NordicsSkift · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Scandic Hotels Group AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.