olivLaw · European equity research
SKF SKF-B.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
SKF is a Swedish industrial group with bearings, seals and engineering services, active in industry and automotive. For 2025 it proposed a dividend of 7.75 SEK per share, and the ongoing separation of its automotive division changes its structure and management focus.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, SKF (SKF-B.ST) stock was 273.70 SEK (−0.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 124.7 bn SEK, P/E 31.8 on diluted EPS of 8.62 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.90%, beta 1.13, 52-week range 210.80–280.20 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 264.28 – 281.60
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.54 · band width 6.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 271.63 / 251.99
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.57 / 1.42
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.3% | −0.6% | −1.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +4.6% | −4.2% | +8.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.6% | +4.3% | +10.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.4% | +7.5% | +3.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +6.7% | +9.9% | −3.3 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | +49.3% | +49.8% | −0.6 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | +31.6% | +42.8% | −11.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 14.2, median 24.1, max 28.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 98.7 bn | 91.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −7.2% |
| Net income | unavailable | 6.5 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −39.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 14.22 | 8.62 | 8.62 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −39.4% | 0.0% |
| net % | unavailable | 6.6% | 4.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 5.7 bn | 4.6 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 9.0 bn SEK
- Financial debt
- unavailable SEK
- Net debt
- unavailable SEK
- Equity
- 55.7 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 106.4 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.11x
- ROE
- 6.7%
- ROA
- 3.5%
- FCF margin
- 5.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 98.7 bn | 91.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | 71.3 bn | 67.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | 27.4 bn | 24.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | — | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | — | 10.3 bn | 7.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | — | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | 9.1 bn | 6.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | — | 6.5 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 14.22 | 8.62 | 8.62 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 5.10 | 7.93 | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 13.3 bn | 11.0 bn | 9.0 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 26.2 bn | 23.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 60.2 bn | 54.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 30.5 bn | 27.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 12.6 bn | 10.9 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 119.4 bn | 106.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 30.0 bn | 25.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | — | 62.0 bn | 55.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 751.0 m | 455.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | 10.8 bn | 8.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 5.1 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 5.7 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | -5.6 bn | -1.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | -7.6 bn | -8.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 3.8 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 124.7 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.3% | 50 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 116.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.8x | 51 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 31.8x | 31 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.7% | 46 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.9% | 41 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 79.0% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet70/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality75/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation37/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SKF Group (SKF-B.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 91.6 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth -7.2%; net margin 4.3%; ROE 6.9%.
The estimated value range is 105.79–193.67 SEK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 134.69 SEK, the price of 273.70 SEK leaves a potential of -50.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -103.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 116.4%
- Current ratio: 2.1x
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| SKF-B.STSKF Group | 124.7 bn | 31.8 | 6.9% | 4.3% | −7.2% | +11% / +39% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SKF-B.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 146.33 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 260.02 Total return -2% · Per year -2% | 393.44 Total return 47% · Per year 47% |
| 3 years | 116.20 Total return -52% · Per year -22% | 234.66 Total return -6% · Per year -2% | 393.44 Total return 54% · Per year 15% |
| 5 years | 92.26 Total return -58% · Per year -16% | 211.78 Total return -10% · Per year -2% | 393.44 Total return 60% · Per year 10% |
- Exit P/E± 58.67
- Net margin± 41.07
- Annual revenue growth± 37.09
- Annual dilution± 3.45
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
SKF is a Swedish industrial group with bearings, seals and engineering services, active in industry and automotive. For 2025 it proposed a dividend of 7.75 SEK per share, and the ongoing separation of its automotive division changes its structure and management focus.
SWOT
Strengths
- Broad global presence, with regionally organized operations and specialized businesses that support proximity to customers.
- Solid governance structure, with audit and sustainability committees, and financial reporting reviewed by an external auditor.
- Recognition for sustainability performance, with top ratings in systems used by global customers.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on complex supply chains, which exposes the group to delays and extra costs.
- The separation of the automotive segment still brings organizational and execution uncertainty.
- Earnings per share down from the prior year, showing sensitivity to market conditions.
Opportunities
- Digitalization and AI use could improve efficiency and customer offerings if applied systematically.
- Consolidation of supply chains and stock optimization could reduce costs if the program advances.
- Specialized businesses and Asian markets could add growth if regional demand strengthens.
Threats
- Tariffs and trade restrictions could raise costs and limit access to certain markets.
- Currency and interest rate volatility could affect results and financial planning.
- Breaches of trade, export and sanctions rules could lead to penalties and reputational damage.
Risks
- Supply chainshigh
Dependence on suppliers, tariffs and complex flows can cause delays and extra costs.
- Automotive separationhigh
The separation of the automotive segment could lead to operational disruption and management distraction.
- Compliance and sanctionsmedium
Compliance requirements on trade, exports and international sanctions are major risks cited in the report.
- Pace of innovationmedium
Failing to adopt fast-changing technology could mean missed opportunities and a slow market response.
- Macroeconomic uncertaintymedium
Inflation, currency volatility and weak demand can affect financial and operational planning.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the automotive separation completes without disruption, the group could focus resources on industry and specialized businesses.
- If digitalization and efficiency programs deliver, margins could gradually recover alongside better earnings per share.
- Broad regional presence and recognition for sustainability could support demand from global customers.
What would break the thesis
- Earnings per share fell from the prior year, and if macroeconomic pressure persists, results could remain under pressure.
- The automotive separation could bring costs and distractions that delay the planned benefits.
- Tariffs and compliance risks could raise costs and limit access to certain markets.
What to watch
- Completion of the automotive segment separation and its impact on group structure2026
- Trend in earnings per share and the proposed dividendnext 10-K
- Evolution of supply chain costs and lead timesQ1 2027
- Progress of digitalization and AI programs in operations2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
SKF reports two segments: industrial and automotive (fordonsverksamheten). The industrial segment is organized in four geographic regions plus four global businesses grouped as Specialized Industrial Solutions, while the automotive segment operates as its own global organization. The operating structure is decentralized, with five central headquarters functions.
Operational and financial responsibility rests with each region and business, while central functions set the frameworks for compliance, risk management and synergies. The sources note that dividend policy and capital management are approved by the board and the annual general meeting.
Segments
Industrial
The industrial segment is organized into four regions (Americas and Australia, Europe and Africa, India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, China and Northeast Asia) and global businesses grouped as Specialized Industrial Solutions. It is the main part of the group's activity, and it holds the largest goodwill balance among the cash-generating units.
Automotive
The automotive segment is a separate global organization that is to be separated from the group. The separation and related organizational changes could distract from core business operations, according to the risk assessment in the report.
Market context
The annual report does not detail the size of the global bearings market here; it describes the market through regions and demand from industry and automotive. SKF shares are followed by a large number of investors, and its main shareholder, FAM AB, holds 29.23% of the votes.
Foreign ownership of capital is around 33.3%, while Swedish companies, institutions and funds hold around 48.3%. These shares point to a shareholder base concentrated in Sweden with a significant international component.
Trends
- Digitalization and artificial intelligencemixed
The demand for a fully connected value chain and operational efficiency increases pressure to adopt digitalization and AI to stay competitive. It could become an advantage if investments are well directed.
- Talent and leadershipmixed
Company success depends increasingly on the ability to attract and retain critical skills. A well-developed talent pipeline could support long-term demand.
- Macroeconomic uncertaintyheadwind
Inflation, currency devaluation, interest rate volatility and prolonged weak demand make planning harder. If these conditions persist, margins could be affected.
- Supply chains and tariffsheadwind
Supplier dependence, complex flows and tariffs can raise costs and lead times. Supplier diversification is a mitigating measure mentioned in the report.
Competitive position
The annual report does not name direct competitors. Competition takes place in bearings and industrial services markets, and global technology and automotive component suppliers are the main players SKF is usually compared with.
Global network and engineering strengths are presented as differentiating factors, but the source does not quantify market share. Any assessment of competitive position would require external information not included in these texts.
- Global bearing and industrial component makers
The source does not name specific competitors; the group compares its performance with global suppliers in industry and automotive.
- Automotive technology suppliers
Competition in the automotive segment is mentioned in general terms, without names in the report.
- Regional suppliers in Asia
China, Northeast Asia and India are competitive markets; the source does not identify firms.
- Engineering services providers
Engineering and technical consulting services are part of the group's portfolio and have unnamed competitors.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / SKF · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.