olivLaw · European equity research
Systemair AB SYSR.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0016609499 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Systemair designs and sells building ventilation systems, a range that includes heat-recovery air handling units, heat pumps and services, with sales in 51 countries. For investors, the decarbonisation track and the EU taxonomy classification of part of sales, 27 percent of net sales in fiscal 2024/25, are the relevant reference points.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Systemair AB (SYSR.ST) stock was 86.10 SEK (−0.35% on the day), with market capitalisation 17.8 bn SEK, P/E 23.5 on diluted EPS of 3.67 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.60%, beta 0.93, 52-week range 69.40–90.70 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 84.70 – 87.42
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.51 · band width 3.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 86.36 / 80.96
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.03 / -0.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.2% | −0.2% | −0.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.7% | −5.4% | +6.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +20.4% | +4.4% | +16.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.1% | +6.5% | −7.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +12.5% | +10.0% | +2.6 pp | −7.6% |
| 3 years | +38.0% | +48.6% | −10.6 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −3.0% | +41.4% | −44.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 17.8, median 21.8, max 25.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.1 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.6% | +0.4% | +1.6% |
| Net income | 1.0 bn | 645.6 m | 680.7 m | 760.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −37.9% | +5.4% | +11.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.00 | 3.10 | 3.27 | 3.67 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −38.0% | +5.5% | +12.2% |
| net % | 8.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% |
| Free cash flow | 262.0 m | 946.6 m | 724.1 m | 624.4 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Apr 2026
- Cash
- 426.8 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 856.9 m SEK
- Net debt
- 430.1 m SEK
- Equity
- 6.1 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 9.9 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.14x
- Current ratio
- 2.13x
- ROE
- 12.8%
- ROA
- 7.9%
- FCF margin
- 5.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.1 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.5 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.9 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.9 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.1 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.6 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.4 bn | 963.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 108.9 m | 110.9 m | 177.0 m | 92.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.3 bn | 864.4 m | 942.8 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 250.2 m | 210.6 m | 256.6 m | 291.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.0 bn | 645.6 m | 680.7 m | 760.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.00 | 3.10 | 3.27 | 3.67 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 208.1 m | 208.1 m | 208.1 m | 207.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.20 | 1.37 | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 339.9 m | 414.3 m | 421.0 m | 426.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.6 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.5 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 988.6 m | 1.0 bn | 965.5 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.6 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.4 bn | 9.9 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.1 bn | 609.9 m | 405.1 m | 172.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 516.6 m | 470.4 m | 467.9 m | 684.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.4 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.4 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.3 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.1 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 207.9 m | 208.3 m | 208.2 m | 207.3 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 587.7 m | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 325.7 m | 386.6 m | 456.4 m | 539.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 262.0 m ≈ | 946.6 m ≈ | 724.1 m ≈ | 624.4 m ≈ | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 318.6 m | -389.7 m | -450.2 m | -668.3 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -959.5 m | -898.1 m | -637.7 m | -483.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 230.8 m | 252.1 m | 284.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 23.5 m | 26.9 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 51 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 17.8 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality61
- Growth5
- Balance sheet100
- Returns55
- Valuation49
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 51/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 12.9% | 57 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.1% | 56 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 82.1% | 74 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.2% | 10 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 12.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.5x | 54 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.5% | 44 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.7% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 45.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth5/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality61/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns55/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation49/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
Memo
Systemair Aktiebolag (SYSR.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-04-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.5 bn SEK in 2026; YoY growth 1.6%; net margin 6.1%; ROE 12.8%.
The estimated value range is 29.26–40.09 SEK per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 33.80 SEK, the price of 86.10 SEK leaves a potential of -60.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -154.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 51/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 82.1%
- Interest coverage: 12.3x
- Current ratio: 2.1x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 45.6%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -9.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.7%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 219.9 bn | 26.6 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +19% / +36% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 141.8 bn | 15.1 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +11% / +80% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.4 bn | 70.8 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +26% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.4 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 43.3 bn | 59.6 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +18% / +58% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 30.0 bn | 60.9 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −17% / unavailable |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 29.3 bn | 23.8 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +79% / +118% |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.9 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +20% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.5 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +19% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.9 bn | 29.5 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +15% / +121% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 19.5 bn | 24.1 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +55% / +276% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| SYSR.STSystemair Aktiebolag | 17.8 bn | 23.5 | 12.8% | 6.1% | +1.6% | +10% / +25% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.7 bn | 18.3 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −18% / +2% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 13.9 bn | 16.9 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −34% / −45% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.2 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.6 bn | 15.3 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +21% / +136% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.8 bn | 47.4 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +16% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +57% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.0 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +34% / +107% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 31.0 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +21% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.1 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +24% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.5 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −38% / −79% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.4 bn | 30.4 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −20% / +108% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.2 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −9% / +86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SYSR.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 49.21 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 87.15 Total return 3% · Per year 3% | 131.46 Total return 55% · Per year 55% |
| 3 years | 44.66 Total return -45% · Per year -18% | 89.28 Total return 9% · Per year 3% | 148.31 Total return 78% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 40.53 Total return -47% · Per year -12% | 91.46 Total return 14% · Per year 3% | 167.32 Total return 105% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 22.32
- Net margin± 15.62
- Annual revenue growth± 13.24
- Annual dilution± 1.31
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Systemair designs and sells building ventilation systems, a range that includes heat-recovery air handling units, heat pumps and services, with sales in 51 countries. For investors, the decarbonisation track and the EU taxonomy classification of part of sales, 27 percent of net sales in fiscal 2024/25, are the relevant reference points 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A broad portfolio of heat-recovery ventilation products, supported by a manufacturing network spread across several continents and environmental and quality certifications at most factories 1.
- Focus on standardisation and secure delivery, which supports relationships with professional construction customers 1.
- Measurable progress on sustainability, including lower emissions intensity and fewer accidents leading to sick leave, which could strengthen investor and customer confidence 1.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on steel and electrical component supply chains, where cost and compliance risks exist, as the report acknowledges 1.
- Staff turnover and the still modest share of women in leadership are points the company actively tracks 1.
- Some sustainability targets, especially those on emissions from product use, rely on estimates and uncertain data, according to the report 1.
Opportunities
- Demand for energy-efficient buildings and healthy indoor air could support sales of heat-recovery units and heat pumps 1.
- Upgrading existing equipment and services could expand recurring revenue if customers choose retrofits over full replacement 1.
- If production moves into factories the company owns, control over the environment and energy efficiency could improve 1.
Threats
- A slowdown in construction activity could reduce demand for new installations, since the main customers are builders and renovators 1.
- Rising energy and raw material costs could compress margins, especially if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- Growing reporting and supply chain due diligence requirements could add compliance costs 1.
Risks
- Dependence on constructionhigh
Demand depends on construction and renovation activity, a cyclical sector, so a slowdown in property investment could affect sales 1.
- Raw material and energy costsmedium
Steel, electric motors and energy are significant costs; increases could reduce margins if they are not recovered through prices 1.
- Supply chain riskmedium
The report highlights a higher risk of human rights and environmental law breaches in metals supply chains, which could create reputational or compliance problems 1.
- Sustainability and reportingmedium
The transition to CSRD and reaching emissions targets rely on uncertain data and continued investment; difficulties could affect the credibility of communications 1.
- Corruption risk in international operationslow
The company acknowledges that as a global building-sector group its corruption risk is higher than normal, particularly in certain operating countries 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for energy-efficient ventilation keeps growing, the portfolio of heat-recovery units and heat pumps could support revenue growth 1.
- Progress on cutting emissions and accidents could strengthen the company's position in public and private procurement that asks for sustainability criteria 1.
- The share of products classified as sustainable under the EU taxonomy could become a competitive advantage as purchasing rules evolve 1.
What would break the thesis
- If construction activity slows, orders for new installations could fall, and the company could lean more on services with different margins 1.
- Higher steel and energy costs could compress margins if prices cannot be adjusted quickly 1.
- Difficulty reaching product-use emissions targets, which rely on uncertain estimates, could weaken the credibility of the sustainability plan 1.
What to watch
- Development of net sales and margins in the ventilation segmentnext 10-K
- Progress toward the scope 1 and 2 emissions target against the 2023/24 base year2027
- Share of EU taxonomy-aligned sustainable products in net salesnext 10-K
- Number of factories ISO 14001 certified and their trend2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Systemair builds its business model on a complete offering of high-quality ventilation products, focused on standardisation, delivery reliability and availability, as the annual report for the year ended 30 April 2025 describes 1. Its customers are mainly property owners or contractors renovating or constructing buildings, and the company also offers services and, in some markets, retrofits of existing equipment 1. Products are mostly fixed installations with a technical life generally between 10 and 25 years, and their energy use, mainly electricity, is part of the efficiency case 1.
The company says products delivered during the year contribute to lower CO2 emissions, estimated as comparable to emissions from roughly 290 000 fossil-fuelled cars, based on sales of heat-recovery units 1. Systemair has factories in 19 countries, and most employees work in manufacturing, mainly sheet metal processing and assembly 1.
The company has emissions targets approved by the Science Based Targets initiative, and its sustainability reporting now follows the CSRD framework 1. For an investor these are context rather than a guarantee of future results.
Segments
Ventilation and climate products
The core range covers heat-recovery ventilation units and heat pump units for buildings of all types, and beyond ventilation the company sells heating and cooling products 1. For larger buildings, combining ventilation with a reversible heat pump is presented as a development direction 1.
Market context
Systemair operates in building ventilation, where demand is supported by energy efficiency requirements and indoor air quality, themes the report highlights along with World Health Organization estimates on air pollution 1. The company notes most customers come from construction and renovation, tying sales to the property investment cycle 1.
The supply side is dominated by steel, electric motors and other components, sourced mainly from Europe and North America, and the report explicitly flags cost and compliance risks in the metals supply chain 1.
Trends
- Sustainability reporting and the EU taxonomymixed
The move to CSRD reporting and the classification of part of net sales as sustainable under the EU taxonomy could help the company communicate product benefits, but also carries compliance costs and resource needs 1.
- Energy efficiency of buildingstailwind
Demand for lower energy use in buildings supports interest in heat-recovery units and heat pumps, and the company stresses that purchase decisions should weigh total life-cycle cost 1.
- Indoor air qualitytailwind
Concern about indoor air and the health effects of pollution supports interest in controlled ventilation, and Systemair has opened a presence in Brussels to influence policy discussions 1.
- Energy and raw material costsheadwind
Prices of energy, steel and electrical components could weigh on the manufacturer's margins and on customers' construction investment pace if these costs rise or become volatile 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly name direct competitors, but it includes a benchmarking analysis carried out in its materiality study, comparing the company's sustainability practices with those of industry peers 1. Competition is framed around standardisation, product availability, energy efficiency and building services 1.
The building ventilation market is fragmented, with global and regional producers; for performance comparisons, readers would need to consult each competitor's reports, as the supplied sources do not identify them 1.
- Global building HVAC system makers
The analysed sources do not name competitors; this category covers producers selling ventilation and climate products in similar markets.
- Regional building ventilation suppliers
Local competitors in European and Asian markets, active in comparable product and service segments, not named in the report.
- Heat pump manufacturers
Companies offering heating and cooling solutions that may overlap with the company's heat pump units.
- HVAC service and retrofit providers
Firms specialised in maintenance and retrofit, active in upgrading existing equipment.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202628 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202628 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202426 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-04-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Systemair AB · 30 Apr 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.