olivLaw · European equity research
Yubico AB YUBICO.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0015657788 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Yubico makes hardware security keys that use phishing-resistant FIDO2 authentication to protect account access. Demand is rising as AI-driven attacks and regulation push organisations toward stronger authentication, yet the company's share of the advanced authentication market remains small, around 4 percent.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Yubico AB (YUBICO.ST) stock was 170.60 SEK (+29.24% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.7 bn SEK, P/E 116.8 on diluted EPS of 1.46 SEK over the last 12 months, beta 0.87, 52-week range 30.78–170.60 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.7
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 101.68 – 164.18
- above the upper band · %B 1.10 · band width 47.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 112.53 / 71.56
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 10.92 / 9.87
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +46.1% | −0.6% | +46.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +98.4% | −4.2% | +102.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +237.5% | +4.3% | +233.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +123.2% | +7.5% | +115.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +81.5% | +9.9% | +71.5 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | +66.0% | +49.8% | +16.1 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | +66.2% | +42.8% | +23.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 52.3, median 57.9, max 59.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +27.3% | −4.7% |
| Net income | 130.6 m | 371.7 m | 128.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +184.6% | −65.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.19 | 4.20 | 1.46 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +91.8% | −65.2% |
| net % | 7.1% | 16.0% | 5.8% |
| Free cash flow | 101.2 m | 296.7 m | 230.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 895.0 m SEK
- Financial debt
- unavailable SEK
- Net debt
- unavailable SEK
- Equity
- 1.7 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 2.2 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.86x
- ROE
- 7.9%
- ROA
- 5.8%
- FCF margin
- 10.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 368.7 m | 428.7 m | 490.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 274.1 m | 336.1 m | 316.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 179.1 m | 437.5 m | 199.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 11.3 m | 3.8 m | 54.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 180.2 m | 462.1 m | 166.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 49.6 m | 90.4 m | 38.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 130.6 m | 371.7 m | 128.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.19 | 4.20 | 1.46 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 59.7 m | 88.6 m | 87.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 547.3 m | 824.1 m | 895.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 501.0 m | 690.1 m | 715.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 63.1 m | 82.5 m | 73.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 7.2 m | 14.7 m | 28.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 13.0 m | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 26.0 m | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 310.6 m | 592.7 m | 520.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 357.9 m | 642.7 m | 554.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 59.6 m | 86.0 m | 86.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 114.1 m | 343.8 m | 254.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 12.9 m | 47.1 m | 23.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 101.2 m ≈ | 296.7 m ≈ | 230.6 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 3.4 bn | -60.0 m | -48.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -3.3 bn | -21.8 m | -102.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 90.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 14.7 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.8% | 56 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 180.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 34 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 116.8x | 0 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.6% | 20 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.6% | 9 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial9/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation9/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Yubico AB (YUBICO.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.2 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth -4.7%; net margin 5.8%; ROE 7.9%.
The estimated value range is 22.66–49.33 SEK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 31.06 SEK, the price of 170.60 SEK leaves a potential of -81.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -449.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 180.0%
- Current ratio: 3.9x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 116.8x
- FCF yield: 1.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.6%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| YUBICO.STYubico AB | 14.7 bn | 116.8 | 7.9% | 5.8% | −4.7% | +91% / +64% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for YUBICO.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 93.45 Total return -45% · Per year -45% | 166.01 Total return -3% · Per year -3% | 251.15 Total return 47% · Per year 47% |
| 3 years | 74.78 Total return -56% · Per year -24% | 150.92 Total return -12% · Per year -4% | 252.90 Total return 48% · Per year 14% |
| 5 years | 59.84 Total return -65% · Per year -19% | 137.21 Total return -20% · Per year -4% | 254.67 Total return 49% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 37.73
- Net margin± 26.41
- Annual revenue growth± 23.76
- Annual dilution± 2.22
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Yubico makes hardware security keys that use phishing-resistant FIDO2 authentication to protect account access. Demand is rising as AI-driven attacks and regulation push organisations toward stronger authentication, yet the company's share of the advanced authentication market remains small, around 4 percent 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A high-security hardware product integrated into many platforms and applications, with an ecosystem that strengthens over time.
- Recognition in regulated environments and among organisations applying Zero Trust, with large customer examples documented in the report.
- A combined model of hardware, software and delivery services that simplifies deployment for customers with many users.
Weaknesses
- A relatively small share of the advanced authentication market, so growth depends on market expansion rather than share gains.
- The product requires a physical device, which can complicate distribution and the loss or replacement of keys for some users.
- The business depends on a relatively concentrated group of major shareholders, and incentive programmes can dilute existing shareholders.
Opportunities
- Expansion into identity verification and digital identity could open a market broader than classic authentication.
- Regulatory requirements in several regions can create demand for hardware keys in new sectors such as finance and critical infrastructure.
- If decentralised identities and digital wallets expand, hardware keys could become a standard component of trust.
Threats
- Synced passkeys and integrated offerings from major platforms could reduce demand for separate keys among consumers.
- Regulatory changes or slower authority adoption could shift the growth timetable.
- Competitive pressure from larger IAM suite vendors could limit pricing and margins.
Risks
- Regulatory changemedium
Changes in legislation affecting the business could have a negative effect, and the company monitors these developments with external legal advisers.
- Compliance and reportingmedium
Failure to meet external requirements on financial reporting, taxation, data protection and sustainability could affect the company.
- Litigation and liabilitylow
The company could become involved in disputes, and a lack of documentation could complicate its defence or claims.
- Funding and liquiditymedium
If funding or liquidity proves insufficient, the company could struggle to pay suppliers and retain staff.
- Dilution from incentive programmeslow
Subscription options and incentive programmes could dilute existing shareholders if exercised in full.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If AI-driven threats and regulation keep pushing organisations toward hardware authentication, the company could benefit from structurally rising demand.
- Broad integration into platforms and applications could make the product hard to replace in existing corporate environments.
- Expansion toward digital identity could enlarge the addressable market and reduce reliance on a single segment.
What would break the thesis
- A share of around 4 percent leaves room for larger competitors, and market growth does not guarantee share gains.
- Synced passkeys from major platforms could reduce the value of separate keys for consumers and ordinary users.
- Dilution from incentive programmes and subscription options could reduce earnings per share for current shareholders.
What to watch
- Development of market share in advanced authenticationnext 10-K
- Enforcement of MFA rules in finance and the public sector2026
- Progress of expansion into identity verification2027
- Effect of exercising subscription options on dilution2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Yubico sells hardware security keys, mainly the YubiKey, which provide phishing-resistant multi-factor and passwordless authentication for enterprises, governments and individuals. The model combines secure hardware with software and delivery services, and the company says many platforms and applications already include native FIDO support. Keys bind credentials to the device, so there are no shared secrets to steal 1.
The company has gradually widened its scope from advanced authentication toward identity verification (IDV) and the broader digital identity ecosystem, including decentralised identities that also need hardware-based authentication to build trust 1.
Yubico is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and operates internationally; the annual report indicates that the ecosystem of partners and software integrations is an important part of the value delivered to customers 1.
Segments
Advanced authentication (AA)
This is the core of the business, built on hardware FIDO2 and WebAuthn keys. The report estimates the global advanced authentication market at about 5.8 billion USD in 2025, and Yubico holds a share of roughly 4 percent 1.
Digital identity and IDV
Expansion into identity verification and decentralised digital identity offers growth potential but is at an early stage compared with the authentication core, and its realisation depends on partner adoption and emerging standards 1.
Market context
The identity and access management (IAM) market was estimated at about 26 billion USD in 2025, with a projected annual growth of roughly 14 percent. The global cost of cybercrime, estimated above 10 billion USD a year, and an average cost of 4.44 million USD per breach support demand for phishing-resistant authentication 1.
The digital identity market is larger, around 50 billion USD, and grows about 18 percent, but the source notes these estimates come from third-party market studies rather than verified company data 1.
Trends
- AI-driven attackstailwind
Automated phishing, deepfakes and adversary-in-the-middle attacks have made SMS and push-based MFA more vulnerable, which could accelerate the move to hardware keys.
- Authentication regulationtailwind
Requirements such as mandatory MFA under CMMC, Cyber Essentials, DORA and guidance in Asia and the Middle East push institutions toward phishing-resistant hardware authentication.
- Shift to Zero Trustmixed
Organisations verify every access request, which increases the need for strong authentication but also adds pressure on pricing and deployment costs.
- Synced passkeys competitionheadwind
Cloud-synced passkeys used by large platform providers can reduce the need for a separate device for ordinary users, which could limit the consumer segment.
Competitive position
Competition includes software- and platform-based authentication providers, such as the synced passkey offerings of large technology companies, as well as larger IAM vendors that bundle MFA into their suites. The source does not name competitors with figures, so the comparison remains qualitative.
Yubico's stated advantage is a high-security hardware key that works across major platforms and is integrated into many applications, which strengthens the ecosystem over time 1.
- Synced passkey providers in cloud platforms
FIDO authentication synchronised through a platform ecosystem; security depends on the provider's infrastructure and account recovery.
- Integrated IAM and MFA vendors
Larger identity management suites that include multi-factor authentication, serving as alternatives where customers prefer a single platform.
- Smart card providers
Chip-based solutions useful in uniform corporate environments, but with more complex installation and administration.
- Traditional MFA methods
One-time codes, SMS and push apps, which Yubico considers vulnerable but which remain widely used and compete through inertia.
News & filings
In the press
- Phishing-Resistant Isn't Enough; Yubico Takes Aim at Identity-Verification GapDark Reading · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Yubico AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.