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olivLaw · US equity research

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. AAOI

Semiconductors & Related Devices · SIC 3674 · Vertical: Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674)

59.27USD−7.35% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) designs and manufactures fiber-optic networking products, from lasers and modules to complete turn-key equipment, for data centers, CATV, telecom and FTTH. The company reported fiscal 2025 revenue of 455.7 mn USD, and Q2 2026 revenue of 191.9 mn USD, amid demand tied to artificial intelligence.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) stock was 59.27 USD (−7.35% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.0 bn USD, beta 4.00, 52-week range 19.49–223.10 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 191.9 m USD (+86.4% YoY), net income of -22.8 m USD, diluted EPS -0.28 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.0 bn USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.78 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-1.31%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
4.00
Volatility (1y) 139%
52-week range
19.49223.10

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
32.2
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
51.79 – 107.46
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.13 · band width 69.9%
SMA 50 / 200
95.56 / 114.54
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-10.20 / -8.99
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−51.2%−1.1%−50.1 pp—
3 months−53.9%−0.5%−53.4 pp—
6 months−66.8%+4.4%−71.2 pp—
Year to date+70.0%+12.3%+57.7 pp—
1 year+100.9%+13.5%+87.4 pp+40.6%
3 years+525.9%+76.4%+449.5 pp+23.3%
5 years+911.4%+63.7%+847.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−73.4%
13 May 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−77.2%
04 Dec 2024 → 21 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+58.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
191.9 m USD
+86.4% YoY
Net income
-22.8 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.28
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-11.9% / -12.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue65.2 m100.3 m99.9 m103.0 m118.6 m134.3 m151.1 m191.9 m
Cost of revenue49.2 m71.5 m69.3 m71.8 m85.4 m92.3 m107.2 m138.7 m
Gross profit15.9 m28.7 m30.5 m31.2 m33.3 m41.9 m43.9 m53.2 m
Research & development13.4 m16.7 m17.8 m20.6 m21.3 m25.8 m25.7 m34.9 m
Operating income-16.5 m-6.5 m-8.9 m-16.0 m-18.2 m-11.5 m-13.0 m-24.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation5.2 m ≈5.4 m5.7 m6.4 m ≈7.4 m ≈8.2 m9.2 m10.5 m ≈
Interest expense1.7 m1.8 m934.0 k818.0 k902.0 k844.0 k863.0 k927.0 k
Pre-tax income-17.8 m-119.7 m-9.2 m-9.1 m-17.9 m-10.5 m-13.2 m-21.5 m
Income tax02.0 k000-8.5 m1.0 m1.3 m
Net income-17.8 m-119.7 m-9.2 m-9.1 m-17.9 m-2.0 m-14.3 m-22.8 m
Diluted EPS-0.42-2.60 ≈-0.18-0.16-0.28-0.03 ≈-0.19-0.28
Operating cash flow-14.4 m ≈-24.6 m-50.9 m-65.5 m ≈-28.5 m ≈-29.6 m-85.4 m11.6 m ≈
Capex6.3 m ≈28.4 m28.4 m25.5 m ≈50.2 m ≈75.0 m58.2 m—

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue267.5 m190.9 m234.6 m211.6 m222.8 m217.6 m249.4 m455.7 m
Revenue YoY−30.0%−28.6%+22.9%−9.8%+5.3%−2.3%+14.6%+82.8%
Net income-2.1 m-66.0 m-58.5 m-54.2 m-66.4 m-56.0 m-186.7 m-38.2 m
Net income YoY−102.9%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.11-3.31-2.67-2.01-2.38-1.75-4.50-0.64
Diluted EPS YoY−103.0%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-0.8%-34.6%-24.9%-25.6%-29.8%-25.8%-74.9%-8.4%
Free cash flow-57.8 m-30.5 m-59.8 m-19.6 m-17.2 m-17.0 m-112.9 m-353.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
206.1 m USD
Financial debt
34.0 m USD
Net debt
-172.2 m USD
Equity
733.9 m USD
Total assets
1.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.05x
Current ratio
2.63x
ROE
-7.9%
ROA
-4.5%
FCF margin
-77.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
217.6 m
2024
249.4 m
2025
455.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
158.7 m
2024
187.6 m
2025
318.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
58.9 m
2024
61.8 m
2025
136.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
36.0 m
2024
55.0 m
2025
85.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-41.3 m
2024
-70.9 m
2025
-54.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
20.4 m
2024
20.6 m
2025
27.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-20.9 m ≈
2024
-50.3 m ≈
2025
-26.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
9.4 m
2024
6.8 m
2025
3.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-56.0 m
2024
-186.7 m
2025
-46.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
9.0 k
2024
2.0 k
2025
-8.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-56.0 m
2024
-186.7 m
2025
-38.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.75
2024
-4.50
2025
-0.64

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
31.9 m
2024
41.5 m
2025
60.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
45.4 m
2024
67.4 m
2025
206.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
48.1 m
2024
116.8 m
2025
244.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
63.9 m
2024
88.1 m
2025
183.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
172.6 m
2024
301.3 m
2025
675.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
200.3 m
2024
219.2 m
2025
376.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
3.6 m
2024
3.7 m
2025
3.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
389.2 m
2024
547.0 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
32.9 m
2024
105.0 m
2025
143.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
23.2 m
2024
22.4 m
2025
34.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
4.3 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
93.4 m
2024
170.1 m
2025
257.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
174.3 m
2024
317.9 m
2025
434.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
214.9 m †
2024
229.1 m †
2025
733.9 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-7.9 m
2024
-69.5 m
2025
-174.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
9.1 m
2024
43.4 m
2025
179.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-17.0 m ≈
2024
-112.9 m ≈
2025
-353.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-14.8 m
2024
-50.7 m
2025
-210.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
40.6 m
2024
142.2 m
2025
527.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
82.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
26.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
14.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
28.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-57.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-7.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-440.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-19.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-131.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
209.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Mar 2026
Free cash flow
-340.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
161 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
181 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
4.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
8.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 41 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

59.27 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
82.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2190derived 112

Score by group

  • Balance sheet100
  • Growth90
  • Valuation23
  • Quality0

Estimated value range

Low
35.67
USD per share
Mid
36.23
USD per share
High
68.50
USD per share
Price: 59.27 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -38.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -63.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 35.67 – 68.50 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/Sales35.67 – 68.50 (Mid 36.23)
    5 companies used · median multiple 4.4x · quartiles 4.3x – 9.0x
    FSLR, MCHP, MTSI, ON, Q
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 41/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality28.9%0 (on a fixed band)12%
EBIT margin · Quality-11.3%0 (vs peers)10%
FCF margin · Quality-57.2%0 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth26.9%100 (on a fixed band)19%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth82.8%71 (vs peers)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.8x100 (on a fixed band)7%
EV/Sales · Valuation7.7x40 (vs peers)19%
FCF yield · Valuation-6.8%0 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth90/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality0/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation23/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 455.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 82.8%; net margin -9.6%; ROE -5.4%.

The estimated value range is 35.67–68.50 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 36.23 USD, the price of 59.27 USD leaves a potential of -38.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -63.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 41/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 26.9%
  • Revenue growth (YoY): 82.8%
  • Current ratio: 2.8x

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 28.9%
  • EBIT margin: -11.3%
  • FCF margin: -57.2%
  • FCF yield: -6.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 713.7 m and 45.7 bn (within 8× of the company's); 89 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 48.7x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 24.6x
P/S
8.4x
vertical median 8.0x
above median (+5.3%)
P/B
3.0x
vertical median 6.3x
below median (−52.6%)
ROE
-5.4%
vertical median 17.2%
below median (−131.7%)
Net margin
-9.6%
vertical median 20.7%
below median (−146.2%)
EBIT margin
-11.3%
vertical median 21.8%
below median (−151.8%)
Revenue YoY
82.8%
vertical median 24.1%
above median (+243.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.6x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated40.9 bn104.27.2%9.3%+7.1%+41% / −10%
ALABAstera Labs, Inc.39.0 bn89.028.2%29.6%+115.1%+42% / unavailable
ONOn Semiconductor Corp27.7 bn41.48.9%10.8%−15.3%+42% / −0%
CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd25.7 bn48.730.7%33.8%+205.7%−23% / +662%
QQnity Electronics, Inc.24.8 bn42.07.6%11.5%+9.7%+46% / unavailable
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.20.9 bn11.318.7%37.1%+24.1%−29% / +23%
MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.17.8 bn74.617.2%20.7%+32.6%+33% / +178%
AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.5.0 bn—-5.4%-9.6%+82.8%+101% / +526%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AAOI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) designs and manufactures fiber-optic networking products, from lasers and modules to complete turn-key equipment, for data centers, CATV, telecom and FTTH. The company reported fiscal 2025 revenue of 455.7 mn USD 1, and Q2 2026 revenue of 191.9 mn USD 3, amid demand tied to artificial intelligence.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Vertical integration from laser to final equipment, with proprietary laser fabrication processes 1.
    • Automated production and U.S. manufacturing capacity, valued by customers seeking domestic sources 1.
    • Established position in CATV with long-standing relationships with equipment vendors and a major share of revenue 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Dependence on a small number of customers, with very high revenue concentration 1.
    • Net losses in recent years and a significant accumulated deficit 1.
    • High fixed costs from vertical integration, which can weigh on margins when volumes fall 1.

    Opportunities

    • Selling CATV equipment directly to cable operators, which could open new revenue sources 1.
    • Extending into demanding applications such as wireless telecom, industrial robotics or defense 1.

    Threats

    • If AI investment slows, newly added capacity could remain underused 1.
    • Trade policy, tariffs and export controls could raise costs and limit market access 1.
    • Competitive and pricing pressure could reduce margins on standard product lines 1.

    Risks

    • Return on manufacturing investmenthigh

      Large investments in U.S. capacity and automation may not deliver expected returns if AI-driven demand develops differently than planned 1.

    • Reliance on key customershigh

      Loss or reduction of orders from a major customer would directly affect revenue, since long-term contracts are generally absent 1.

    • Demand forecastingmedium

      Customers can change or cancel orders without significant penalty, which could lead to excess capacity or inventory 1.

    • Trade policy and tariffsmedium

      Changes in tariffs and import-export rules could raise costs, especially for operations in China and Taiwan 12.

    • Quarterly earnings volatilitylow

      Results can vary widely from quarter to quarter, which may lead to pronounced share price volatility 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If demand for high-speed optics stays strong, revenue could keep growing, as the recent quarterly pace and third-quarter guidance suggest 3.
    • Rising production capacity and CATV revenue, including from the company's own branded equipment, could support more sources of income 13.
    • A return to non-GAAP profitability in the second quarter could signal operating efficiency improvements if the trend holds 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • Extreme customer concentration means a single reduction in orders could significantly hit results 1.
    • Net losses in recent years and the accumulated deficit could limit financial flexibility if investments underperform 1.
    • If AI investment slows, the expanded capacity could sit underused and margins could come under pressure 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against third-quarter revenue guidanceQ3 2026
    • Trend in non-GAAP gross margin relative to roughly 30% levelsQ3 2026

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Applied Optoelectronics is a vertically integrated provider of fiber-optic networking products across four markets: internet data centers, cable television (CATV), telecom and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) 1. It starts from lasers and laser components and builds subassemblies, modules and turn-key equipment to customer specifications 1.

    Vertical integration supports rapid product development, quick response to customers and control over quality and manufacturing costs 1. Lasers are made with the company's own MBE and MOCVD processes, and most laser chips are manufactured at its Sugar Land, Texas facility 12.

    The company operates three manufacturing sites in Sugar Land (Texas), Ningbo (China) and Taipei (Taiwan), plus a research and development facility in Duluth (Georgia) 2. Management has announced plans to expand manufacturing space around Sugar Land 2.

    Market context

    Demand is driven by bandwidth growth from artificial intelligence, cloud computing, network-connected devices and video traffic 2. In data centers, AI is driving retooling of existing facilities and construction of new ones that require optical links at 800G and above 12.

    Customer concentration is high, with the top ten customers representing 96.6% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1. Management expects demand to continue to outpace production capacity through mid-2027 3.

    Trends

    • AI demand in data centerstailwind

      Hyperscale investment in AI infrastructure increases the need for optical interconnects at 800G and above, which could support revenue growth if that investment continues 12.

    • Upgrade to DOCSIS 4.0 in CATVtailwind

      Cable operators plan major network upgrades to DOCSIS 4.0, and the company was one of the early developers of such equipment 1.

    • Uneven technology transitionmixed

      Quarterly results may vary considerably during technology transitions, and margins depend on product mix and pricing 1.

    • Pricing and margin pressureheadwind

      Products compete intensely and are often only minimally differentiated, creating ongoing pressure on prices and margins 1.

    Competitive position

    The company operates in a competitive market where many products are minimally differentiated from competitors' and sales are concentrated among a few large customers 1. Competition comes from optical component makers as well as CATV and network equipment suppliers 1.

    Claimed advantages include in-house laser production, high automation and U.S. manufacturing capacity 1. If other suppliers achieve lower costs or faster delivery, the company's relative advantage could weaken 1.

    • Optical component makers for data centers

      Competitors in the data center transceiver market, some with production outside the United States, per the company's description 1.

    • CATV equipment vendors

      Companies designing CATV equipment that can internally make the subassemblies supplied by AOI 1.

    • Telecom network equipment manufacturers

      Customers or potential competitors in the telecom and 5G segment where AOI supplies lasers and transceivers 1.

    • Other optical module suppliers

      Companies competing on price and delivery speed for standard optical products, a risk identified by management 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 21 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    • Current report04 Nov 2026
      Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report15 Sept 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report10 Sept 2026
      Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report01 Sept 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report24 Aug 2026
      Material agreement · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report21 Aug 2026
      Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
    • Current report06 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report01 Jul 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report16 Jun 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.