olivLaw · US equity research
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. AAP
Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores · SIC 5531 · Vertical: Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores (SIC 5531)
Advance Auto Parts is a major automotive aftermarket parts retailer in North America, serving both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. In recent years it has reduced its store network and reorganised its operations, and in the second quarter of 2026 it reaffirmed its full-year guidance with still modest sales growth. The network counted 4,305 stores at the end of fiscal 2025 and 4,311 in the second half of fiscal 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) stock was 50.75 USD (+6.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.1 bn USD, P/E 69.5 on diluted EPS of 0.73 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.97%, beta 1.02, 52-week range 38.68–63.02 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 2.0 bn USD (−0.5% YoY), net income of 55.0 m USD (+266.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.90 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.1
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 40.29 – 49.64
- above the upper band · %B 1.12 · band width 20.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 43.19 / 51.84
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.42 / 0.85
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +28.0% | −1.1% | +29.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −14.8% | −0.5% | −14.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −12.6% | +4.4% | −17.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +29.1% | +12.3% | +16.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +5.5% | +13.5% | −8.0 pp | −9.2% |
| 3 years | −11.2% | +76.4% | −87.6 pp | +27.4% |
| 5 years | −77.9% | +63.7% | −141.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 18 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '23 | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Gross profit | 819.5 m | 950.0 m | 908.0 m | 348.0 m | 874.0 m | 881.0 m | 869.0 m | 923.0 m |
| SG&A | 845.8 m | 889.0 m | 895.0 m | 880.0 m | 823.0 m | 826.0 m | 801.0 m | 812.0 m |
| Operating income | -42.2 m | 54.0 m | 0 | -820.0 m | 22.0 m | 22.0 m | 44.0 m | 101.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 62.3 m | — | 66.0 m ≈ | 75.0 m | — | 68.0 m ≈ | 58.0 m | — |
| Pre-tax income | -58.5 m | 44.0 m | -17.0 m | -825.0 m | 21.0 m | -2.0 m | 21.0 m | 75.0 m |
| Income tax | -23.4 m | 13.0 m | 8.0 m | -215.0 m | 6.0 m | -1.0 m | -9.0 m | 20.0 m |
| Net income | -34.9 m | 45.0 m | -6.0 m | -415.0 m | 15.0 m | -1.0 m | 6.0 m | 55.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.58 ≈ | 0.75 | -0.10 | -6.93 ≈ | 0.25 | -0.02 | 0.10 ≈ | 0.90 |
| Operating cash flow | 258.2 m | — | 70.0 m ≈ | -73.0 m | — | -12.0 m ≈ | 72.0 m | — |
| Capex | 51.8 m | — | 43.0 m ≈ | 51.0 m | — | 64.0 m ≈ | 93.0 m | — |
| Dividends paid | 14.7 m | — | 15.0 m ≈ | 15.0 m | — | 15.0 m ≈ | 15.0 m | — |
| Share repurchases | 281.0 k | — | 1.0 m ≈ | 501.0 k | — | 1.0 m ≈ | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 15.5, median 25.1, max 122.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 9.6 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.1 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −2.0% | +2.2% | +1.3% | unavailable | −9.5% | +0.7% | −1.2% | unavailable |
| Net income | 475.5 m | 423.8 m | 486.9 m | 493.0 m | 464.4 m | 30.0 m | -336.0 m | 44.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +3.5% | −10.9% | +14.9% | unavailable | −5.8% | −93.5% | −1,220.0% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 6.42 | 5.73 | 6.84 | 7.14 | 7.65 | 0.50 | -5.61 | 0.73 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +3.5% | −10.7% | +19.4% | unavailable | +7.1% | −93.5% | −1,222.0% | unavailable |
| net % | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 0.3% | -3.7% | 0.5% |
| Free cash flow | 411.0 m | 617.3 m | 596.8 m | 702.1 m | 337.8 m | 61.0 m | -96.0 m | -298.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 3.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 3.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 289.0 m USD
- Equity
- 2.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 11.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.55x
- Current ratio
- 1.75x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 0.4%
- FCF margin
- -3.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.7 bn | 10.1 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.5 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.7 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 3.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 677.2 m | 749.9 m | 524.6 m | 39.0 m | -713.0 m | -43.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 238.4 m | 250.1 m | 248.3 m | 269.0 m | 292.0 m | 272.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 915.6 m ≈ | 1,000.0 m ≈ | 772.9 m ≈ | 308.0 m ≈ | -421.0 m ≈ | 229.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 637.7 m | 651.0 m | 460.2 m | -47.0 m | -768.0 m | -91.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 150.9 m | 158.0 m | 99.7 m | -17.0 m | -181.0 m | -159.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 486.9 m | 493.0 m | 464.4 m | 30.0 m | -336.0 m | 44.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 6.84 | 7.14 | 7.65 | 0.50 | -5.61 | 0.73 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 71.2 m | 69.0 m | 60.7 m | 59.6 m | 59.9 m | 60.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.24 | 1.00 | 6.00 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 418.7 m | 835.0 m | 270.8 m | 488.0 m | 1.9 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 689.5 m | 750.0 m | 684.0 m | 609.5 m | 544.0 m | 380.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 4.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.7 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.1 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 992.2 m | 993.6 m | 990.5 m | 601.2 m | 598.0 m | 600.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 709.8 m | 681.1 m | 620.9 m | 419.2 m | 406.0 m | 400.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 11.2 bn | 11.8 bn | 12.0 bn | 12.3 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | — | 185.0 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 747.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.5 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.3 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 8.3 bn | 9.4 bn | 9.8 bn | 8.6 bn | 9.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.5 bn † | 3.5 bn † | 2.6 bn † | 2.5 bn † | 2.2 bn † | 2.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 866.9 m | 969.7 m | 736.6 m | 287.0 m | 85.0 m | -46.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 270.1 m | 267.6 m | 398.8 m | 226.0 m | 181.0 m | 252.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 596.8 m ≈ | 702.1 m ≈ | 337.8 m ≈ | 61.0 m ≈ | -96.0 m ≈ | -298.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -462.9 m | -266.9 m | -424.4 m | -235.0 m | 1.4 bn | -239.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -882.2 m | -286.0 m | -620.7 m | 189.0 m | -75.0 m | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 17.2 m | 56.3 m | 336.2 m | 209.0 m | 60.0 m | 60.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 498.4 m | 469.7 m | 618.5 m | 14.5 m | 6.5 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 43 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation29
- Returns17
- Quality38
- Balance sheet93
- Growth45
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.14 – 142.06 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA120.04 – 142.06 (Mid 129.41)3 companies used · median multiple 16.4x · quartiles 15.3x – 18.0xAZO, HZO, ORLY
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
- Dividend discount (DDM)13.14 – 17.67 (Mid 15.07)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 43/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.2% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.0% | 60 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 27.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.4% | 90 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 99 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 79 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 36.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.8x | 75 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.8% | 9 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.0% | 28 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 260.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth45/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality38/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns17/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, INC. (AAP). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-18.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.6 bn USD in 2026; net margin 1.0%; ROE 3.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.5x.
The estimated value range is 66.59–79.86 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 72.24 USD, the price of 50.75 USD leaves a potential of 42.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 29.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 13.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.5x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 6.8x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 27.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.3%
- P/E (TTM): 36.1x
- FCF yield: 0.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 2.0%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 260.9%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores (SIC 5531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLYO Reilly Automotive Inc | 74.7 bn | 29.4 | — | 14.3% | +6.4% | −9% / +41% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | 53.5 bn | 21.8 | — | 12.6% | +7.4% | −16% / +27% |
| AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc. | 3.1 bn | 36.1 | 3.8% | 1.0% | unavailable | +6% / −11% |
| HZOMarinemax Inc | 1.2 bn | 375.5 | 0.4% | 0.2% | −5.0% | +125% / +77% |
| PRTSCarparts.com, Inc. | 62.2 m | — | -35.4% | -4.0% | unavailable | +42% / −75% |
| ONEWOneWater Marine Inc. | 10.6 k | — | -35.9% | -6.7% | +5.6% | −13% / −60% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AAP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 27.96 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 49.61 Total return 0% · Per year 0% | 74.96 Total return 51% · Per year 51% |
| 3 years | 23.58 Total return -48% · Per year -20% | 47.40 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 79.14 Total return 66% · Per year 18% |
| 5 years | 19.89 Total return -52% · Per year -14% | 45.29 Total return 2% · Per year 0% | 83.55 Total return 82% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 11.85
- Net margin± 8.29
- Annual revenue growth± 7.28
- Annual dilution± 0.70
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Advance Auto Parts is a major automotive aftermarket parts retailer in North America, serving both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. In recent years it has reduced its store network and reorganised its operations, and in the second quarter of 2026 it reaffirmed its full-year guidance with still modest sales growth. The network counted 4,305 stores at the end of fiscal 2025 1 and 4,311 in the second half of fiscal 2026 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- The store network and market hubs give fast parts availability, and the brands and owned brands support the offering 1.
- The company returned to positive year-to-date free cash flow after two years of outflows 3.
- The professional channel, roughly half of sales, provides a relatively stable customer base 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- If market hubs and the ARGOS brand succeed in lifting sales of affordable products, the company could regain lost market share 1.
- Debt reduction and recognised tariff refunds could support financial flexibility 23.
- Continued expansion through store openings and market hubs could support growth in later years 3.
Risks
- Strategy executionhigh
If initiatives are not implemented efficiently or do not deliver the expected benefits, financial results could be affected 1.
- Tariffs and supply chainhigh
Changes in trade policy could raise product costs and disrupt supply 12.
- DIY demandmedium
Tighter household budgets could reduce maintenance spending, a trend already visible in Q2 2026 3.
- Supplier riskmedium
Financial difficulties at suppliers, including the bankruptcy of a major vendor, can cause losses and stock shortages 2.
- Technology and artificial intelligencelow
Implementing new systems and using artificial intelligence carries risks of errors, delays and extra costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If gross margin keeps rising and tariff refunds are recognised, profitability could exceed current guidance 23.
- The professional channel shows slight growth, and market hubs could widen parts availability in high-demand areas 3.
- Lower leverage and debt repurchases could improve financial flexibility 3.
What would break the thesis
- Net sales are declining or flat, and the DIY channel could stay weak if household budgets tighten further 13.
- The 2026 guidance assumes a stronger second half, and if that does not materialise, targets could be missed 3.
- Restructuring costs, debt and a supplier bankruptcy could weigh on results and liquidity 12.
What to watch
- Comparable sales trend in the DIY channelQ3 2026
- Gross margin excluding tariff refundsQ3 2026
- Delivery of 2026 guidance for sales and adjusted operating margin2026
- Store and market hub openings against the revised plan2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Founded in 1929, the company sells replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for cars, vans and trucks through its Advance Auto Parts and Carquest stores in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands 1. Professional sales represented approximately 50% of sales in each of fiscal years 2023 to 2025 1. It also supplies 809 independently owned Carquest stores directly from its distribution centres 1. Net sales from continuing operations were 8.6 billion USD in fiscal 2025, down 5.4% from the prior year, due to store closures 1.
The current strategy focuses on the customer experience, margin expansion and consistent execution for both professional and DIY customers. The company completed the store footprint reduction under its 2024 restructuring plan, sold Worldpac for about 1.44 billion USD, and is converting distribution centres into market hubs that bring parts closer to customers 1. The launch of the owned brand ARGOS in January 2026 points to affordable care products 1.
In Q2 2026 net sales fell slightly by 0.5% while gross margin rose to 46.2% of sales 2. The company said professional sales grew slightly, while the DIY channel was hurt by tighter household budgets 3. Guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed, and the company repurchased debt and lowered net leverage to 2.1x 3.
Segments
Market context
The company operates in the automotive aftermarket, where demand depends on miles driven, the age of the vehicle fleet and household spending 1. Management says it remains confident in the long-term growth prospects of the industry 2. The market is fragmented, leaving room for both national chains and independent stores 1.
Macro factors affecting sales include logistics and labour inflation, trade tariffs, fuel costs, interest rates and consumer confidence 1. Geopolitical events in the Middle East have increased the volatility of oil and petroleum-related prices 2.
Trends
- Pressure on household budgetsheadwind
DIY customers spent less in the second half of Q2 2026, weighing on total sales 3. If economic conditions remain fragile, DIY sales could stay under pressure 3.
- Investment in market hubs and technologymixed
Converting distribution centres into market hubs and upgrading IT systems could lower costs and improve parts availability, but implementation could be delayed or cost more than planned 1.
Competitive position
The main competitors are national and regional parts chains, including AutoZone, NAPA, O'Reilly Automotive and Auto Plus, as well as online retailers, mass merchandisers, jobbers and dealers 1. Chains with multiple locations have advantages in service, marketing and purchasing over independent stores 1.
Competition is based on brand recognition, customer service, product range, availability, speed of service, price and store location 1. The company has said technological innovation, including artificial intelligence, could shape its competitive position over the long term 1.
- AutoZone, Inc.AZO
National auto parts chain named by the company among its primary competitors in the aftermarket.
- O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.ORLY
National auto parts chain competing directly in both the professional and DIY channels.
- NAPA
Parts store network tied to distribution, named among competitors with national and regional networks.
- Auto Plus (formerly Uni-Select USA, Inc.)
Regional auto parts chain named as a competitor in North America.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- AutoZone Climbs 6% as Profit Beat Offsets Revenue Miss; Advance Auto Parts Rises 6%, O’Reilly Automotive Gains 4%Yahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Advance Auto Parts vs. Intuitive Machines: Which Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Advance Auto Parts vs. NIO: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance — News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Just Posted Its Best Quarter In YearsYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report20 Aug 2026
- Current report20 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report21 May 2026
- Current report21 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement01 Apr 2026
- Current report10 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report13 Feb 2026
- Current report13 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · SEC / Advance Auto Parts, Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-18 · SEC / Advance Auto Parts, Inc. · 20 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Advance Auto Parts, Inc. · 20 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.