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olivLaw · US equity research

OneWater Marine Inc. ONEW

Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores · SIC 5531 · Vertical: Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores (SIC 5531)

10.61USD+4.95% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

OneWater Marine is one of the largest boat retailers in the United States, with 95 dealership locations at the end of fiscal 2025 and a parts and accessories distribution business. The company faces a weaker boat market, with falling revenue and debt reduction, and third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue was 530.7 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) stock was 10.61 USD (+4.95% on the day), with market capitalisation 10.6 k USD, P/E 3.8 on diluted EPS of 2.77 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.64, 52-week range 8.35–15.50 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 530.7 m USD (−4.0% YoY), net income of 11.7 m USD (+8.9% YoY).

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
10.6 k USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2019
P/E (TTM)
3.8
Diluted EPS TTM 2.77 · TTM to 30 Sept 2020
E/P (TTM)
26.11%
TTM to 30 Sept 2020
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.64
Volatility (1y) 59%
52-week range
8.3515.50

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.7
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
8.77 – 10.33
above the upper band · %B 1.18 · band width 16.3%
SMA 50 / 200
10.19 / 11.06
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.03 / -0.15
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+9.7%−1.1%+10.8 pp—
3 months−15.3%−0.5%−14.8 pp—
6 months−6.0%+4.4%−10.4 pp—
Year to date−1.9%+12.3%−14.3 pp—
1 year−30.6%+13.5%−44.2 pp−2.2%
3 years−57.5%+76.4%−133.9 pp+27.4%
5 years−78.5%+63.7%−142.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−46.1%
12 Nov 2025 → 18 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−86.3%
31 Dec 2021 → 18 Mar 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−26.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
530.7 m USD
−4.0% YoY
Net income
11.7 m USD
+8.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
unavailable
unavailable YoY
net / operating
2.2% / 6.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue377.9 m375.8 m483.5 m552.9 m460.1 m380.6 m442.3 m530.7 m
Cost of revenue287.2 m291.8 m373.1 m424.2 m356.2 m291.2 m336.8 m403.2 m
SG&A79.5 m79.1 m87.8 m92.1 m84.3 m81.4 m85.7 m87.2 m
Operating income4.5 m-2.0 m16.3 m30.4 m-130.1 m-5.2 m7.6 m35.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation5.9 m6.0 m6.2 m6.3 m5.9 m5.0 m4.2 m4.1 m
Interest expense9.7 m9.0 m9.1 m9.0 m9.1 m8.6 m7.3 m7.1 m
Pre-tax income-12.8 m-18.9 m-523.0 k14.2 m-146.4 m-21.1 m-7.4 m22.0 m
Income tax-2.4 m-5.3 m-148.0 k3.5 m-33.4 m-13.4 m5.5 m10.3 m
Net income-9.2 m-12.0 m-368.0 k10.7 m-113.0 m-7.7 m-12.9 m11.7 m
Operating cash flow27.3 m-37.4 m28.5 m ≈90.8 m ≈9.9 m-76.3 m52.4 m ≈80.4 m ≈
Capex4.2 m2.6 m4.8 m ≈1.9 m ≈2.7 m1.9 m2.3 m ≈2.8 m ≈
Share repurchases0———————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 7.2, median 9.6, max 42.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenueunavailableunavailable1.0 bn1.2 bn1.7 bn1.9 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+20.1%+42.1%+11.0%−8.5%+5.6%
Net income1.9 m37.3 m17.4 m79.1 m130.9 m-38.6 m-5.7 m-114.6 m
Net income YoYunavailable+1,814.9%−53.2%+353.7%+65.6%−129.5%unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable2.77unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %unavailableunavailable1.7%6.4%7.5%-2.0%-0.3%-6.1%
Free cash flow-14.4 m-13.0 m206.2 m149.5 m-4.0 m-151.0 m8.9 m79.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Cash
64.8 m USD
Financial debt
412.1 m USD
Net debt
347.3 m USD
Equity
285.0 m USD
Total assets
1.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.45x
Current ratio
1.14x
ROE
-33.9%
ROA
-7.7%
FCF margin
4.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
535.1 m ≈
2024
435.1 m ≈
2025
427.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025derived

SG&A
2023
345.5 m
2024
332.7 m
2025
343.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Operating income
2023
18.1 m
2024
64.8 m
2025
-85.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
26.8 m
2024
22.2 m
2025
24.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
44.9 m ≈
2024
87.0 m ≈
2025
-61.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
34.6 m
2024
37.1 m
2025
36.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-42.5 m
2024
-6.3 m
2025
-151.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Income tax
2023
-3.4 m
2024
-157.0 k
2025
-35.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Net income
2023
-38.6 m
2024
-5.7 m
2025
-114.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Dec 2020verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Dec 2020verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
93.3 m
2024
27.3 m
2025
64.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Receivables
2023
113.2 m
2024
73.3 m
2025
60.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Inventories
2023
609.6 m
2024
590.8 m
2025
539.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Current assets
2023
881.9 m
2024
777.4 m
2025
719.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
81.5 m
2024
93.2 m
2025
91.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
336.6 m
2024
336.6 m
2025
259.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
212.3 m
2024
205.4 m
2025
130.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Total assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
27.1 m
2024
32.1 m
2025
43.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
29.3 m
2024
7.9 m
2025
77.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
428.4 m
2024
414.9 m
2025
334.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
669.0 m
2024
607.7 m
2025
631.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Equity
2023
414.1 m
2024
390.8 m
2025
285.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-129.8 m
2024
34.8 m
2025
91.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Capex
2023
21.3 m
2024
25.9 m
2025
12.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
-151.0 m ≈
2024
8.9 m ≈
2025
79.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-51.6 m
2024
13.3 m
2025
-11.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
213.7 m
2024
-114.1 m
2025
-42.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Dec 2023verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.6 m
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Dec 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-231.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
793.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
23.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-35.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-8.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-12.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
269.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-2.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
66.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
9.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
56.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
14 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
132 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
9 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
137 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
10.6 k USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
269.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-1,148,887.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
534,901.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

10.61 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 10.6 k USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
10.6 k USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-35.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 31 Jul 2026
verified 1008derived 86

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
1,886,749.87
USD per share
Mid
3,099,361.26
USD per share
High
7,802,340.33
USD per share
Price: 10.61 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 29,211,599.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 100.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1,886,749.87 – 7,802,340.33 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)1,886,749.87 – 7,802,340.33 (Mid 3,099,361.26)
    WACC 5.0% · starting FCFF 83.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 88%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores (SIC 5531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-12.0%0 (on a fixed band)21%
Net margin · Quality-6.7%0 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.4%20 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-2.9x0 (on a fixed band)13%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x35 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation534,901.0%100 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet14/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial20/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.6%; net margin -6.7%; ROE -35.9%.

The estimated value range is 1,886,749.87–7,802,340.33 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3,099,361.26 USD, the price of 10.61 USD leaves a potential of 29,211,599.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 100.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF yield: 534,901.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -12.0%
  • Net margin: -6.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.4%
  • Interest coverage: -2.9x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores (SIC 5531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 32.7x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 15.3x
P/S
0.0x
vertical median 0.5x
below median (−100.0%)
P/B
0.0x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−100.0%)
ROE
-35.9%
vertical median 0.4%
below median (−8,622.4%)
Net margin
-6.7%
vertical median 1.0%
below median (−781.7%)
EBIT margin
-5.1%
vertical median 3.0%
below median (−266.7%)
Revenue YoY
5.6%
vertical median 6.4%
below median (−12.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.8x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ORLYO Reilly Automotive Inc74.7 bn29.4—14.3%+6.4%−9% / +41%
AZOAutoZone, Inc.53.5 bn21.8—12.6%+7.4%−16% / +27%
AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.3.1 bn36.13.8%1.0%unavailable−2% / −0%
HZOMarinemax Inc1.2 bn375.50.4%0.2%−5.0%+125% / +77%
PRTSCarparts.com, Inc.62.2 m—-35.4%-4.0%unavailable+42% / −75%
ONEWOneWater Marine Inc.10.6 k—-35.9%-6.7%+5.6%−31% / −58%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ONEW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    OneWater Marine is one of the largest boat retailers in the United States, with 95 dealership locations at the end of fiscal 2025 and a parts and accessories distribution business. The company faces a weaker boat market, with falling revenue and debt reduction, and third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue was 530.7 million USD 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Large scale in the market, with dealerships across several states and a leading position in premium boat sales in many local markets 1.
    • Revenue diversification through financing, insurance, service and parts, which provides an important share of gross profit 1.
    • A stronger balance sheet after reducing debt and reaching the leverage target ahead of schedule 3.

    Weaknesses

    • Falling revenue in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with negative same-store sales 3.
    • High dependence on a few manufacturers, and losing a major one could significantly affect results 1.
    • Heavy geographic concentration in the Southeast and Gulf Coast, where local economic conditions can have a major impact 1.

    Opportunities

    • A fragmented market offers chances to acquire local dealers at attractive multiples 1.
    • Growth in parts, accessories and service could improve margins if boat sales stay weak 1.
    • Expansion online and into new regions could open new revenue sources 1.

    Threats

    • Consumer confidence and high interest rates can reduce demand for boats 1.
    • Tariffs and supply chain disruption can raise costs and delay deliveries 1.
    • Hurricanes and other weather events can affect operations in the regions with the most dealerships 1.

    Risks

    • Weak demand for boatshigh

      Weaker consumer demand can reduce sales and lead to excess inventory, with pressure on prices 13.

    • Dependence on manufacturershigh

      Dealer agreements are renewable annually, and losing important manufacturers could seriously affect revenue 1.

    • Interest rates and financingmedium

      High interest rates can make boat financing more expensive and limit credit access for customers and for acquisitions 1.

    • Tariffs and supplymedium

      Trade policies and tariffs can raise the cost of imported parts and boats, with an effect on margins 1.

    • Weather eventsmedium

      Hurricanes and floods can interrupt operations and damage inventory and facilities in key regions 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the market recovers, the company's scale and ability to grow same-store sales could drive faster revenue growth 3.
    • Rising margins and lower debt could give the company more room for acquisitions 3.
    • A fragmented market and an acquisition strategy could allow continued consolidation of a sector with many small dealers 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Revenue fell in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, and the fiscal-year guidance points to a difficult period 3.
    • Dependence on a few manufacturers and on new boat sales exposes the company to demand and supply shocks 1.
    • If interest rates and economic uncertainty persist, customers could postpone purchases and profitability could stay under pressure 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDAQ4 2026
    • Trend in dealership same-store salesQ4 2026
    • Leverage level and acquisition strategy after the Ocean Bio-Chem sale2027
    • Impact of tariffs and supply on purchase costsnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    OneWater Marine Inc. is a holding company and principal operator of the OneWater group, listed on NASDAQ under the symbol ONEW. Its activity falls into two reportable segments: Dealerships, which sells new and pre-owned boats, financing and insurance, repairs and parts, and Distribution, which manufactures and distributes marine products for distributors, retailers and direct customers 1. The company was formed in 2014 through a combination of two retailers and has grown through acquisitions, keeping the local names and brands of the dealers it acquires 1. As of June 30, 2026 it had 91 dealerships and 6 distribution centers 2.

    The business model relies on scale and revenue diversification. Non-boat sales, meaning finance, insurance, service and parts, made up a small share of revenue but an important share of gross profit in fiscal 2025 1. The company says it relies on organic growth through same-store sales and on acquisitions of dealers in a fragmented market 1.

    In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 the company completed the sale of Ocean Bio-Chem, which changed the composition of the Distribution segment 23. Management announced a leverage target below 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA, which it reached ahead of schedule 3.

    Segments

    Dealerships

    The Dealerships segment accounted for about 92% of revenue in fiscal 2025 and includes sales of new and pre-owned boats, financing, service and parts 1. By June 30, 2026 its share had risen to 94% of revenue in the quarter 2.

    Distribution

    The Distribution segment accounted for about 8% of revenue in fiscal 2025 and manufactured and distributed marine parts and accessories through PartsVu, Ocean Bio-Chem and T-H Marine 1. After the Ocean Bio-Chem sale in February 2026 the segment shrank, and its share fell to 6% in the third quarter 2.

    Market context

    US spending on boating reached 55.6 billion USD in 2024, down 2.6% from 2023, after average annual growth of 5% since 2012 1. The retail market is highly fragmented, with about 4,000 dealerships, most with three stores or fewer, and OneWater holds less than 4% of industry sales 1.

    For 2026 the company expects the industry to fall by high single digits, with dealership same-store sales down by low to mid single digits 3. Boat sales are correlated with consumer confidence and access to credit 1.

    Trends

    • Weaker retail demandheadwind

      The boat retail market has cooled, and same-store sales declined in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. If demand does not recover, revenue in 2026 could remain below the prior year.

    • Improving marginstailwind

      Gross margin rose in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 thanks to a more favorable product mix and measures to raise profit per boat 3. If this trend holds, profitability could support results even with lower revenue.

    • Debt reductionmixed

      The company cut leverage and reached its fiscal 2026 target ahead of schedule, giving it more financial flexibility 3. If interest rates stay high, financing costs could still limit that flexibility 1.

    • Tariffs and international tradeheadwind

      Tariffs can raise the cost of boats and parts imported from abroad, and trade pressures can disrupt supply 1. The impact could be larger for the Distribution segment and for products made in Europe or Asia 1.

    Competitive position

    The market is fragmented, with many local dealers operating three stores or fewer, but there are also large competitors 1. OneWater aims to be the market leader in each segment, and its strategy of keeping local brands sets it apart from competitors that use a single national brand 1.

    Boat manufacturers also hold power over dealers through renewable annual agreements and performance conditions 1. To stay competitive, the company may need scale and lower costs than the smallest independent dealers 1.

    • Malibu BoatsMBUU

      Boat manufacturer and major supplier to OneWater, accounting for a significant part of new boat sales 1.

    • Local independent dealers

      Most competitors are family dealers with three stores or fewer, competing on local relationships 1.

    • Other large boat dealers

      The source mentions large competitors without naming them, so they cannot be identified from this source 1.

    • Marine parts and accessories retailers

      The Distribution segment competes in the marine accessories and aftermarket parts sector, which is fragmented 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / OneWater Marine Inc. · 15 Dec 2025
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / OneWater Marine Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / OneWater Marine Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.