olivLaw · US equity research
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM
Fats & Oils · SIC 2070 · Vertical: Food products (SIC 20xx)
ADM is a global agricultural supply chain manager and processor with operations in 75 countries, active in Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions and Nutrition. In the second quarter of 2026 total segment operating profit was 1450 million USD, up 75% year over year, and adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 was raised to 5.15–5.60 USD per share.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock was 70.84 USD (+0.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 33.7 bn USD, P/E 13.8 on diluted EPS of 5.13 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.92%, beta 0.21, 52-week range 56.00–88.09 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 22.3 bn USD (+9.6% YoY), net income of 821.0 m USD (+660.2% YoY), diluted EPS 1.70 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 24.5
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 71.90 – 86.12
- below the lower band · %B -0.07 · band width 18.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 81.46 / 76.61
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.34 / -1.41
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −14.1% | −1.1% | −13.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.7% | −0.5% | −8.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.2% | +4.4% | −13.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +23.2% | +12.3% | +10.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +17.8% | +13.5% | +4.3 pp | +0.4% |
| 3 years | −2.8% | +76.4% | −79.3 pp | −9.4% |
| 5 years | +9.8% | +63.7% | −53.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.5 bn | 20.2 bn | 21.2 bn | 20.4 bn | 18.6 bn | 20.5 bn | 22.7 bn | 22.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 20.1 bn | 19.0 bn | 19.8 bn | 19.1 bn | 17.3 bn | 19.3 bn | 20.7 bn | 20.4 bn |
| Gross profit | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn |
| SG&A | 943.0 m | 932.0 m | 911.0 m | 873.0 m | 893.0 m | 961.0 m | 1.0 bn | 946.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 287.0 m | 287.0 m | 291.0 m ≈ | 296.0 m ≈ | 307.0 m | 293.0 m | 293.0 m ≈ | 295.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 179.0 m | 158.0 m | 159.0 m | 153.0 m | 142.0 m | 149.0 m | 148.0 m | 165.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 667.0 m | 353.0 m | 279.0 m | 147.0 m | 476.0 m | 384.0 m | 1.1 bn | 997.0 m |
| Income tax | 106.0 m | 61.0 m | 62.0 m | 37.0 m | 22.0 m | 81.0 m | 176.0 m | 171.0 m |
| Net income | 567.0 m | 295.0 m | 219.0 m | 108.0 m | 456.0 m | 298.0 m | 908.0 m | 821.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.18 ≈ | 0.61 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 0.94 ≈ | 0.62 | 1.87 | 1.70 |
| Operating cash flow | 322.0 m | -342.0 m | 4.3 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | -313.0 m | 150.0 m | 1.1 bn ≈ | 489.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 492.0 m | 291.0 m | 305.0 m ≈ | 296.0 m ≈ | 356.0 m | 194.0 m | 272.0 m ≈ | 307.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 241.0 m | 247.0 m | 248.0 m ≈ | 248.0 m ≈ | 244.0 m | 254.0 m | 256.0 m ≈ | 254.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 36 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 10.0, median 14.9, max 32.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 64.3 bn | 64.7 bn | 64.4 bn | 85.2 bn | 101.6 bn | 93.9 bn | 85.5 bn | 80.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.8% | +0.5% | −0.5% | +32.5% | +19.1% | −7.5% | −8.9% | −6.2% |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | +13.5% | −23.8% | +28.5% | +52.9% | +60.2% | −19.7% | −48.3% | −40.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.19 | 2.44 | 3.15 | 4.79 | 7.71 | 6.43 | 3.65 | 2.23 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +14.3% | −23.5% | +29.1% | +52.1% | +61.0% | −16.6% | −43.2% | −38.9% |
| net % | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Free cash flow | -5.6 bn | -6.3 bn | -3.2 bn | 5.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 4.2 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 7.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 6.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 22.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 52.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.33x
- Current ratio
- 1.37x
- ROE
- 4.8%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 64.4 bn | 85.2 bn | 101.6 bn | 93.9 bn | 85.5 bn | 80.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 59.9 bn | 79.3 bn | 94.0 bn | 86.4 bn | 79.8 bn | 75.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.5 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.5 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 160.0 m | 171.0 m | 216.0 m | 256.0 m | 269.0 m | 246.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 976.0 m | 996.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 339.0 m | 265.0 m | 396.0 m | 647.0 m | 706.0 m | 612.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 101.0 m | 578.0 m | 868.0 m | 828.0 m | 476.0 m | 182.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.15 | 4.79 | 7.71 | 6.43 | 3.65 | 2.23 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 565.0 m | 566.0 m | 563.0 m | 542.0 m | 493.0 m | 484.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 666.0 m | 943.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | 611.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 11.7 bn | 14.5 bn | 14.8 bn | 12.0 bn | 11.6 bn | 10.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 27.3 bn | 31.9 bn | 35.4 bn | 29.8 bn | 27.7 bn | 26.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 9.8 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.9 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 3.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 49.7 bn | 56.1 bn | 59.8 bn | 54.6 bn | 53.3 bn | 52.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 4.5 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.0 bn | 958.0 m | 503.0 m | 105.0 m | 1.9 bn | 798.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 7.9 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | 7.6 bn | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 18.2 bn | 21.9 bn | 24.2 bn | 18.7 bn | 19.9 bn | 19.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 20.0 bn | 22.5 bn | 24.3 bn | 24.1 bn | 22.2 bn | 22.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -2.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 823.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -3.2 bn ≈ | 5.4 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 4.5 bn | -2.7 bn | -1.4 bn | -1.5 bn | -2.7 bn | -1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -423.0 m | -1.1 bn | -2.5 bn | -4.6 bn | -1.5 bn | -2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 809.0 m | 834.0 m | 899.0 m | 977.0 m | 985.0 m | 987.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 133.0 m | 0 | 1.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 31 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 33.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation61
- Balance sheet54
- Quality19
- Growth0
- Returns35
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.62 – 108.93 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)4.62 – 17.57 (Mid 9.47)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 857.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E95.78 – 108.93 (Mid 101.28)5 companies used · median multiple 19.7x · quartiles 18.7x – 21.2xBG, HSY, MDLZ, MNST, PEP
- Dividend discount (DDM)26.81 – 36.05 (Mid 30.75)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 31/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.0% | 38 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 13.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -7.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -33.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 54 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.8x | 100 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.0% | 13 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.1% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 291.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial54/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns35/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation61/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 80.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -6.2%; net margin 3.0%; ROE 10.7%.
The estimated value range is 26.81–36.05 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 30.75 USD, the price of 70.84 USD leaves a potential of -56.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -130.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 31/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 13.8x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 13.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -7.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -33.9%
- FCF yield: 1.0%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 291.3%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Food products (SIC 20xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 4.8 bn and 307.8 bn (within 8× of the company's); 81 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEPPepsico Inc | 194.1 bn | 18.7 | 50.1% | 10.8% | +2.3% | −4% / −15% |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | 85.3 bn | 21.2 | 15.5% | 10.2% | +5.8% | +17% / −5% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 50.1 bn | 37.2 | 5.7% | 7.1% | +8.2% | +32% / +17% |
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corp | 47.8 bn | 22.4 | 25.7% | 23.1% | +10.7% | +30% / +77% |
| HSYHershey Co | 35.4 bn | 19.7 | 38.0% | 14.6% | +4.4% | −7% / −7% |
| ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Co | 33.7 bn | 13.8 | 10.7% | 3.0% | −6.2% | +18% / −3% |
| KHCKraft Heinz Co | 30.1 bn | — | -9.0% | -14.0% | −3.5% | −0% / −28% |
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | 19.2 bn | — | -10.6% | -4.9% | −5.4% | −24% / −44% |
| BGBunge Global SA | 18.6 bn | 16.3 | 7.2% | 1.2% | +32.4% | +1% / −12% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ADM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 38.50 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 68.41 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 103.52 Total return 50% · Per year 50% |
| 3 years | 30.57 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 61.74 Total return -5% · Per year -2% | 103.52 Total return 56% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 24.28 Total return -57% · Per year -16% | 55.72 Total return -9% · Per year -2% | 103.52 Total return 63% · Per year 10% |
- Exit P/E± 15.44
- Net margin± 10.81
- Annual revenue growth± 9.76
- Annual dilution± 0.91
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
ADM is a global agricultural supply chain manager and processor with operations in 75 countries 1, active in Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions and Nutrition 1. In the second quarter of 2026 total segment operating profit was 1450 million USD, up 75% year over year, and adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 was raised to 5.15–5.60 USD per share 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in a global supply chain, with an integrated origination, logistics and processing network across many countries 1.
- Diversification across three segments that partly offsets swings in agriculture 13.
- Strong quarterly results and raised 2026 guidance following solid operational execution 3.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Operational disruptionmedium
Equipment failure, natural disasters or accidents could interrupt production and create uninsured costs 1.
- Raw material volatilityhigh
Agricultural prices can change quickly, affecting working capital and margins, particularly if drought or global output shifts 1.
- Geopolitical and sanctions riskhigh
Conflicts, sanctions and piracy could disrupt shipping routes and reduce access to raw materials 1.
- Biofuel policymedium
Changes to tax credits or blending obligations could quickly alter profitability in ethanol and biodiesel 2.
- Joint venture investmentslow
Limited control over investments may lead to difficulty exiting or resolving disputes with partners 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the supportive biofuel environment persists and execution continues, results could sustain the raised 2026 guidance 3.
- Growth in Nutrition, supported by flavors and clean-label demand, could diversify profit sources 13.
- The cost programme and digitalization could improve efficiency over the medium term 12.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 and the margin trends in crushing and ethanolQ3 2026
- Final rules for the 45Z clean fuel credit and application of the RVO2026
- Results of the Nutrition segment, especially flavorsQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
ADM buys crops from thousands of farmers and converts them, through its integrated origination, logistics and manufacturing network, into products for food, feed, fuel and industrial markets 1. It also produces human and animal nutrition ingredients and health products such as probiotics, enzymes and supplements 1. It is a key producer of biofuels, converting agricultural feedstocks into renewable fuels 1.
Segments
Ag Services and Oilseeds
The segment covers origination, merchandising and transport of agricultural raw materials, and the crushing of oilseeds into vegetable oils and protein meals 1. The 22.5% equity interest in Wilmar International Limited sits within this segment 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment operating profit was 867 million USD, up 129% year over year, supported by better crushing margins linked to the RVO 3.
Market context
Soybeans, corn and soybean meal were the largest products by revenue, at about 17%, 13% and 11% of revenues in 2025 1. The market for agricultural raw materials is sensitive to weather, government policy and global demand, and prices can change quickly 1. Research and development expense was 246 million USD in 2025 1.
The biofuel market became more favorable after the 2026 and 2027 renewable volume obligations were finalized in March 2026, supported also by energy prices 3. The market remains exposed to regulatory risk, and the framework for clean fuel credits under Section 45Z is still being finalized 2.
Trends
- Biofuel policytailwind
The renewable volume obligations set for 2026 and 2027 have raised demand for ethanol and biodiesel feedstocks, supporting crushing and ethanol margins 23. If final credit rules differ from those proposed, the impact could be smaller than currently estimated.
- Tariffs and trademixed
The US Supreme Court held in February 2026 that IEEPA does not authorize executive tariffs, and refunds are in progress 2. The company does not expect tariff risks to have a significant impact, but new tariffs or a review of the USMCA could change trade flows 2.
- Cost savings programmetailwind
ADM announced in February 2025 targeted actions that could deliver more than 500 million USD of cumulative cost savings over three to five years 12. Success depends on operational execution and portfolio simplification 1.
- Black Sea and Russia-Ukraine pressuresheadwind
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted volumes and margins in the Black Sea region, a major wheat and corn exporter, and the company's assets there face risks of loss and expropriation 1. These pressures could persist if the conflict continues 1.
Competitive position
Competition is intense and based on price, exchange rates, quality, global supply and alternative products, some made from different raw materials 1. In Nutrition, ADM competes with ingredient suppliers, contract manufacturers, large consumer goods companies and private label brands, as well as niche specialists 1.
To stay competitive, the company focuses on innovation, direct-to-consumer sales, strategic partnerships and its distribution network 1. Recent joint ventures in cottonseed and animal feed show a push to consolidate its position in core markets 2.
- Wilmar International Limited
Singapore agribusiness group in which ADM holds an equity stake, active in edible oils, sugar, oleochemicals and biodiesel 1.
- Bunge
Oilseed processing competitor named generically; the supplied sources do not name it explicitly.
- Ingredion
Company mentioned only generically in the supplied sources in the context of sweeteners and starch; its position is not detailed in the documents given.
- Global ingredient suppliers and private label brands
Competitor category in the Nutrition segment, including contract manufacturers and niche specialists 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Stock Outperforming the Nasdaq?Yahoo Finance — News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Bets Big On Oilseed Crush CapacityYahoo Finance — News · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 14 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report10 Aug 2026Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · 17 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.