olivLaw · US equity research
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. KDP
Beverages · SIC 2080 · Vertical: Beverages (SIC 2080)
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a North American beverage company with net sales of 16603 million USD in fiscal 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, net sales rose 75.6% to 7309 million USD, mainly due to the JDE Peet's acquisition, while legacy net sales grew 7.3%.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) stock was 36.79 USD (+5.90% on the day), with market capitalisation 50.1 bn USD, P/E 37.2 on diluted EPS of 0.99 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.50%, beta 0.17, 52-week range 25.31–36.82 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 7.3 bn USD (+75.6% YoY), net income of 142.0 m USD (−74.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.04 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 31.56 – 37.25
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 16.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 32.68 / 30.12
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.09 / 0.97
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +19.1% | −1.1% | +20.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +19.6% | −0.5% | +20.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +28.8% | +4.4% | +24.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.3% | +12.3% | +19.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +39.0% | +13.5% | +25.5 pp | +1.2% |
| 3 years | +18.2% | +76.4% | −58.2 pp | −35.0% |
| 5 years | +1.1% | +63.7% | −62.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 7.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 4.2 bn |
| Gross profit | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.1 bn |
| SG&A | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Operating income | 902.0 m | 63.0 m | 801.0 m | 898.0 m | 995.0 m | 881.0 m | 756.0 m | 628.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 802.0 m | -154.0 m | 660.0 m | 718.0 m | 852.0 m | 457.0 m | 357.0 m | 305.0 m |
| Income tax | 186.0 m | -10.0 m | 143.0 m | 171.0 m | 190.0 m | 104.0 m | 87.0 m | 95.0 m |
| Net income | 616.0 m | -144.0 m | 517.0 m | 547.0 m | 662.0 m | 353.0 m | 270.0 m | 142.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.45 | -0.11 ≈ | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0.26 ≈ | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| Operating cash flow | 628.0 m ≈ | 849.0 m | 209.0 m | 431.0 m ≈ | 639.0 m ≈ | 712.0 m | 281.0 m | 895.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 125.0 m ≈ | 165.0 m | 120.0 m | 106.0 m ≈ | 112.0 m ≈ | 148.0 m | 116.0 m | 181.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 292.0 m ≈ | 311.0 m | 312.0 m | 313.0 m ≈ | 312.0 m ≈ | 313.0 m | 312.0 m | 312.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 5.0 m | 0 | 9.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 18.3, median 26.0, max 116.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.4 bn | 11.1 bn | 11.6 bn | 12.7 bn | 14.1 bn | 14.8 bn | 15.4 bn | 16.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +11.2% | +49.4% | +4.5% | +9.2% | +10.8% | +5.4% | +3.6% | +8.2% |
| Net income | 586.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | −45.5% | +114.0% | +5.7% | +62.0% | −33.1% | +51.9% | −33.9% | +44.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.53 | 0.88 | 0.93 | 1.50 | 1.01 | 1.55 | 1.05 | 1.53 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −91.0% | +66.0% | +5.7% | +61.3% | −32.7% | +53.5% | −32.3% | +45.7% |
| net % | 7.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 16.9% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 9.4% | 12.5% |
| Free cash flow | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 904.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 16.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 15.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 25.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 55.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.63x
- Current ratio
- 0.64x
- ROE
- 8.4%
- ROA
- 3.8%
- FCF margin
- 9.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.6 bn | 12.7 bn | 14.1 bn | 14.8 bn | 15.4 bn | 16.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.1 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 6.5 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 69.0 m | 66.0 m | 65.0 m | 66.0 m | 70.0 m | 70.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 604.0 m | 500.0 m | 693.0 m | 496.0 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 428.0 m | 653.0 m | 284.0 m | 576.0 m | 473.0 m | 608.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.93 | 1.50 | 1.01 | 1.55 | 1.05 | 1.53 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.92 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 240.0 m | 567.0 m | 535.0 m | 267.0 m | 510.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 762.0 m | 894.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 20.2 bn | 20.2 bn | 20.1 bn | 20.2 bn | 20.1 bn | 20.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 24.0 bn | 23.9 bn | 23.2 bn | 23.3 bn | 23.6 bn | 23.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 49.8 bn | 50.6 bn | 51.8 bn | 52.1 bn | 53.4 bn | 55.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.3 bn | 304.0 m | 895.0 m | 3.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 11.1 bn | 11.6 bn | 11.1 bn | 9.9 bn | 12.9 bn | 13.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 7.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 25.9 bn | 25.6 bn | 26.7 bn | 26.5 bn | 29.2 bn | 29.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 23.8 bn | 25.0 bn | 25.1 bn | 25.7 bn | 24.2 bn | 25.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 461.0 m | 423.0 m | 353.0 m | 425.0 m | 563.0 m | 486.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 904.0 m ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -316.0 m | 210.0 m | -1.1 bn | -784.0 m | -1.6 bn | -573.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.0 bn | -2.8 bn | -1.7 bn | -832.0 m | -223.0 m | -999.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 846.0 m | 955.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 379.0 m | 706.0 m | 1.1 bn | 9.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 53 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 50.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet0
- Growth73
- Quality63
- Returns54
- Valuation36
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 12.09 – 31.36 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E18.87 – 31.36 (Mid 24.01)6 companies used · median multiple 24.3x · quartiles 19.1x – 31.7xBF-A, BUDA, COCO, KO, PEP, YHC
- Dividend discount (DDM)12.09 – 16.26 (Mid 13.87)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 53/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.0% | 46 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.1% | 53 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 138.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.7% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 14.8% | 99 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 37.2x | 25 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.9% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.5% | 36 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 63.4% | 81 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth73/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality63/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation36/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 16.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.2%; net margin 7.1%; ROE 5.7%.
The estimated value range is 15.48–23.81 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 18.94 USD, the price of 36.79 USD leaves a potential of -48.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -94.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 138.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 14.8%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 63.4%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- P/E (TTM): 37.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Beverages (SIC 2080) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOCoca Cola Co | 412.1 bn | 28.2 | 42.6% | 28.7% | +1.9% | +31% / +64% |
| DEODIAGEO plc | 237.6 bn | 92.4 | 24.0% | 9.1% | +0.3% | +7% / −30% |
| PEPPepsico Inc | 194.1 bn | 18.7 | 50.1% | 10.8% | +2.3% | −4% / −15% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 50.1 bn | 37.2 | 5.7% | 7.1% | +8.2% | +39% / +18% |
| BF-ABrown Forman Corp | 14.9 bn | 20.3 | 18.1% | 18.4% | −1.2% | +10% / −48% |
| PRMBPrimo Brands Corp | 7.6 bn | 79.4 | 3.2% | 1.5% | +29.3% | +34% / +46% |
| COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc. | 3.7 bn | 32.9 | 32.0% | 15.7% | +18.2% | +23% / +133% |
| WESTWestrock Coffee Company | 1.0 bn | — | — | -4.9% | +39.8% | +138% / +13% |
| BUDABuda Juice, Inc. | 83.2 m | 34.5 | 19.3% | 17.1% | +11.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SRXHSRX Global Inc. | 18.0 m | — | -70.8% | -254.8% | −81.3% | −96% / −100% |
| WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc. | 8.3 m | — | -3.3% | -5.9% | −6.5% | −37% / −68% |
| YHCLQR House Inc. | 2.9 m | 0.2 | -88.2% | -1,589.2% | −37.4% | −98% / −100% |
| IPSTIp Strategy Holdings, Inc. | 2.3 m | — | -2,713.2% | -2,064.0% | +20.4% | −98% / unavailable |
| EDVAEndovia Health Sciences, Inc. | 1.2 m | — | — | -53,856.5% | −90.9% | −96% / −100% |
| BRCCBRC Inc. | 903.4 k | — | -14.2% | -1.5% | +1.7% | −23% / −77% |
| IBGInnovation Beverage Group Limited | 593.4 k | — | — | -223.4% | −5.1% | −94% / unavailable |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | — | — | 23.9% | 20.9% | −10.5% | +7% / −40% |
| ABEVAmbev S.A. | — | — | 16.6% | 17.6% | −1.4% | +9% / +1% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KDP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 23.34 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 41.24 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 62.08 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 23.20 Total return -31% · Per year -11% | 46.07 Total return 34% · Per year 10% | 76.08 Total return 118% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 23.07 Total return -27% · Per year -6% | 51.48 Total return 56% · Per year 9% | 93.24 Total return 174% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 11.52
- Net margin± 8.06
- Annual revenue growth± 6.54
- Annual dilution± 0.68
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a North American beverage company with net sales of 16603 million USD in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026, net sales rose 75.6% to 7309 million USD 3, mainly due to the JDE Peet's acquisition, while legacy net sales grew 7.3% 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A broad portfolio of recognized brands and an own distribution network support its leading position in North American refreshment beverages 1.
- High operating margins in the beverage segment and strong profit growth in fiscal 2025 1.
- Solid operating cash flow in the second quarter of 2026, used for balance sheet deleveraging 3.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a limited number of suppliers and manufacturers for brewers and on third-party bottlers for a significant part of the business 1.
- Declining brewer and pod sales in the U.S. coffee segment 1.
- Higher debt and financing costs after the JDE Peet's acquisition, weighing on earnings per share 23.
Opportunities
- The JDE Peet's integration and the planned separation into two companies could open more tailored growth strategies 13.
- Expansion into new categories such as energy and functional beverages could support volume growth 1.
- Cost savings from integration and productivity could improve margins if they materialize 3.
Risks
- Integration and separationhigh
If the JDE Peet's integration or the separation takes longer or costs more than expected, financial results could be affected 12.
- Indebtednesshigh
Debt taken on for the acquisition could limit financial flexibility and could affect credit ratings 12.
- Raw material costsmedium
Fluctuations in the prices of coffee, aluminum and other materials could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- Customer concentrationmedium
One key retailer accounts for a significant share of sales, so a change in that relationship could affect results 1.
- Decline in the Keurig categorymedium
If brewer and pod sales keep falling, the coffee segment could remain under pressure 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If integration synergies materialize and legacy growth holds, combined profitability could exceed current expectations 3.
- The portfolio of iconic brands and the own distribution network give an advantage that is hard to replicate in North America 1.
- Solid free cash flow could speed up debt reduction, which would support the credit rating 3.
What would break the thesis
- If the JDE Peet's integration runs into difficulties, operating profit could stay below the anticipated level 23.
- Higher debt and financing costs could reduce earnings per share in the coming period 23.
- Pressure in the coffee segment and the decline of Keurig brewers could continue if demand does not stabilize 13.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and the 2026 guidanceQ3 2026
- Progress of the JDE Peet's integration and cost synergies2026
- Timing and completion of the separation of the two companiesearly 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Market context
Trends
- JDE Peet's integrationmixed
Integration and separation could bring cost synergies, but acquisition and integration costs have risen significantly, which could weigh on near-term profitability 23.
- Demand for energy and functional beveragestailwind
Growth in the energy segment and new categories, such as prebiotic sodas, supports volumes in the refreshment business 1.
- Inflationary pressure and input costsheadwind
Prices of raw materials, transport and tariffs have pressed margins in recent periods, and inflationary pressures have persisted 13.
- Decline in Keurig brewer salesheadwind
Brewer sales fell in 2025 and K-Cup pod volumes declined, reflecting price elasticity and category softness 1.
Competitive position
The main competitors named are Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Starbucks, The J.M. Smucker Company, The Kraft Heinz Company and Nestlé, many of which are also partners or customers of the company 1. Competitive pressure also comes from regional producers and private label manufacturers 1.
The company offsets competition through long-term partnerships, a diverse brand portfolio and its own distribution network, but it could lose ground if it fails to differentiate Keurig brewers 1.
- Coca-ColaKO
Main competitor in carbonated soft drinks and, in some territories, a bottling partner of the company 1.
- PepsiCoPEP
Main competitor in carbonated soft drinks, which also acts as a bottler in some territories 1.
- Starbucks CorporationSBUX
Competitor in coffee and also a partner, as the company manufactures K-Cup pods for the Starbucks brand 1.
- The J.M. Smucker CompanySJM
Competitor in the coffee category, with coffee brands sold through similar channels 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Keurig Dr Pepper is Cashing Out of Chobani, is the $925 Million Exit a Smart Reset?Yahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Keurig Dr Pepper Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Keurig Dr Pepper to sell stake – and factory – to ChobaniYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 11 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Sept 2026Other events
- Current report16 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report23 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.