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olivLaw · US equity research

Buda Juice, Inc. BUDA

Beverages · SIC 2080 · Vertical: Beverages (SIC 2080)

6.62USD−4.06% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Buda Juice, Inc. (NYSE American: BUDA) produces cold-crafted, never heat-treated citrus juices and lemonades that it sells to large supermarket chains under its UltraFresh™ category. The company listed in January 2026, and by the end of the first half of 2026 its cash position was far larger than a year earlier, which gives it room to expand geographically. For the profile, the key issues are its dependence on a single customer and a gross margin that has recently declined.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Buda Juice, Inc. (BUDA) stock was 6.62 USD (−4.06% on the day), with market capitalisation 83.2 m USD, P/E 33.1 on diluted EPS of 0.20 USD over the last 12 months, beta -0.27, 52-week range 6.60–10.86 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.5 m USD (+26.4% YoY), net income of 470.0 k USD (−59.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.04 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
83.2 m USD
shares as of 14 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
33.1
Diluted EPS TTM 0.20 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
3.02%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
-0.27
Volatility (1y) 71%
52-week range
6.6010.86

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
38.6
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
6.40 – 7.89
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.15 · band width 21.0%
SMA 50 / 200
7.58 / 8.76
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.25 / -0.24
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−8.1%−1.1%−7.0 pp—
3 months−18.3%−0.5%−17.8 pp—
6 months−28.7%+4.4%−33.1 pp—
Year to dateunavailable+12.3%unavailable—
1 yearunavailable+13.5%unavailable+6.6%
3 yearsunavailable+76.4%unavailable−30.5%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−39.2%
10 Jul 2026 → 23 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−39.2%
10 Jul 2026 → 23 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
4.5 m USD
+26.4% YoY
Net income
470.0 k USD
−59.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.04
unavailable YoY
net / operating
10.4% / 9.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ1 '25Q2 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue3.0 m3.6 m3.5 m4.5 m
Cost of revenue1.6 m1.9 m2.1 m2.9 m
Gross profit1.3 m1.7 m1.4 m1.7 m
SG&A407.0 k378.0 k663.0 k1.1 m
Operating income803.0 k1.1 m593.0 k444.0 k
Depreciation & amortisation87.0 k69.0 k ≈57.0 k63.0 k ≈
Pre-tax income816.0 k1.2 m747.0 k599.0 k
Income tax9.0 k9.0 k359.0 k129.0 k
Net income807.0 k1.2 m388.0 k470.0 k
Diluted EPS——0.030.04
Operating cash flow904.0 k929.0 k ≈1.3 m-365.0 k ≈
Capex139.0 k—218.0 k-118.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20242025
Revenue11.3 m12.6 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+11.8%
Net income3.6 m3.5 m
Net income YoYunavailable−1.1%
Diluted EPS0.200.20
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable0.0%
net %31.7%28.0%
Free cash flow3.3 m2.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.8 m USD
Financial debt
647.0 k USD
Net debt
-1.2 m USD
Equity
3.7 m USD
Total assets
5.0 m USD
Debt / equity
0.17x
Current ratio
5.50x
ROE
102.5%
ROA
81.2%
FCF margin
23.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
11.3 m
2025
12.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
6.1 m
2025
7.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
5.2 m
2025
5.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2024
1.3 m
2025
1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2024
3.4 m
2025
3.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
274.0 k
2025
239.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
3.7 m ≈
2025
3.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived

Income tax
2024
—
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
3.6 m
2025
3.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
0.20
2025
0.20

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
14.0 k
2025
14.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
1.9 m
2025
1.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2024
395.0 k
2025
386.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
374.0 k
2025
348.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
2.7 m
2025
3.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
969.0 k
2025
976.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
3.7 m
2025
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
449.0 k
2025
289.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
—
2025
647.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 14 May 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
575.0 k
2025
585.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
575.0 k
2025
1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
3.2 m †
2025
3.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
4.0 m
2025
3.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
684.0 k
2025
246.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
3.3 m ≈
2025
2.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-684.0 k
2025
-246.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-2.8 m
2025
-3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
1.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-1.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
40.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
19.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
18.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
17.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
13.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
19.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
59.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-18.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-6.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
15.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
14.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
13.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
325.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Mar 2026
Free cash flow
1.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
80.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
82.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
27 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
83.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
65.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
34.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
34.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
5.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
23.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
25.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
4.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
43.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 69 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

6.62 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 83.2 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
83.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
34.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
23.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
19.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
17.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 14 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 14 Aug 2026
verified 168

Score by group

  • Balance sheet100
  • Quality86
  • Valuation40

Estimated value range

Low
3.78
USD per share
Mid
4.76
USD per share
High
6.46
USD per share
Price: 6.62 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -28.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -39.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.67 – 6.82 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA3.89 – 6.82 (Mid 4.86)
    5 companies used · median multiple 15.7x · quartiles 11.3x – 24.7x
    BF-A, KO, PEP, PRMB, WEST
  • Peers: P/E3.67 – 6.09 (Mid 4.66)
    6 companies used · median multiple 24.3x · quartiles 19.1x – 31.7x
    BF-A, COCO, KDP, KO, PEP, YHC
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Beverages (SIC 2080)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 69/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality59.7%100 (vs peers)16%
Net margin · Quality17.1%76 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality80.0%71 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-6.6x100 (vs peers)16%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet15.2x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation34.5x38 (vs peers)16%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation23.8x50 (vs peers)16%
FCF yield · Valuation2.3%29 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality86/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation40/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

BUDA JUICE, INC. (BUDA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.8%; net margin 17.1%; ROE 19.3%; net debt/EBITDA -6.6x.

The estimated value range is 3.78–6.46 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.76 USD, the price of 6.62 USD leaves a potential of -28.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -39.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 59.7%
  • Net margin: 17.1%
  • FCF conversion: 80.0%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -6.6x
  • Current ratio: 15.2x

What contradicts it

  • FCF yield: 2.3%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Beverages (SIC 2080) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
34.5x
vertical median 30.5x
above median (+12.8%)
EV/EBITDA
23.8x
vertical median 20.2x
above median (+17.7%)
P/S
5.9x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+195.0%)
P/B
3.8x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+68.8%)
ROE
19.3%
vertical median 11.2%
above median (+72.9%)
Net margin
17.1%
vertical median 1.5%
above median (+1,052.7%)
EBIT margin
18.0%
vertical median 7.2%
above median (+151.9%)
Revenue YoY
11.8%
vertical median 0.3%
above median (+4,424.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-6.6x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−330.6%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.3%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
KOCoca Cola Co412.1 bn28.242.6%28.7%+1.9%+31% / +64%
DEODIAGEO plc237.6 bn92.424.0%9.1%+0.3%+7% / −30%
PEPPepsico Inc194.1 bn18.750.1%10.8%+2.3%−4% / −15%
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.50.1 bn37.25.7%7.1%+8.2%+32% / +17%
BF-ABrown Forman Corp14.9 bn20.318.1%18.4%−1.2%+10% / −48%
PRMBPrimo Brands Corp7.6 bn79.43.2%1.5%+29.3%+34% / +46%
COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc.3.7 bn32.932.0%15.7%+18.2%+23% / +133%
WESTWestrock Coffee Company1.0 bn——-4.9%+39.8%+138% / +13%
BUDABuda Juice, Inc.83.2 m34.519.3%17.1%+11.8%unavailable / unavailable
SRXHSRX Global Inc.18.0 m—-70.8%-254.8%−81.3%−96% / −100%
WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc.8.3 m—-3.3%-5.9%−6.5%−37% / −68%
YHCLQR House Inc.2.9 m0.2-88.2%-1,589.2%−37.4%−98% / −100%
IPSTIp Strategy Holdings, Inc.2.3 m—-2,713.2%-2,064.0%+20.4%−98% / unavailable
EDVAEndovia Health Sciences, Inc.1.2 m——-53,856.5%−90.9%−96% / −100%
BRCCBRC Inc.903.4 k—-14.2%-1.5%+1.7%−23% / −77%
IBGInnovation Beverage Group Limited593.4 k——-223.4%−5.1%−94% / unavailable
STZConstellation Brands, Inc.——23.9%20.9%−10.5%+7% / −40%
ABEVAmbev S.A.——16.6%17.6%−1.4%+9% / +1%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BUDA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
4.20
Total return -37% · Per year -37%
7.40
Total return 12% · Per year 12%
11.12
Total return 68% · Per year 68%
3 years
4.70
Total return -29% · Per year -11%
9.26
Total return 40% · Per year 12%
15.18
Total return 129% · Per year 32%
5 years
5.26
Total return -21% · Per year -4%
11.58
Total return 75% · Per year 12%
20.72
Total return 213% · Per year 26%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 2.32
  • Net margin± 1.62
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.24
  • Annual dilution± 0.14

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Buda Juice, Inc. (NYSE American: BUDA) produces cold-crafted, never heat-treated citrus juices and lemonades that it sells to large supermarket chains under its UltraFresh™ category. The company listed in January 2026, and by the end of the first half of 2026 its cash position was far larger than a year earlier, which gives it room to expand geographically. For the profile, the key issues are its dependence on a single customer and a gross margin that has recently declined.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The UltraFresh™ positioning is differentiated, and the continuous cold chain and SQF certification create a real technical barrier. The asset-light model and grower relationships allow growth with moderate investment.
  • The company holds substantial cash after the January 2026 public offering, giving it flexibility to expand regional hubs. Its leadership has long-standing relationships with major US retailers.
  • The launch in several hundred Walmart stores shows the product can be scaled beyond its original market, a practical proof of multi-state distribution capability.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on a single customer, which accounts for almost all sales, makes revenue very sensitive to one trading partner's decisions 1.
  • Gross margin fell in early 2026 because of fruit and refrigerated freight costs, and citrus prices are hard to control 23.
  • The company operates a single production plant with no redundant infrastructure, so a cold-chain interruption could affect the whole business 1.

Opportunities

  • The South Carolina and Arizona/Nevada hubs could open large eastern and western markets if completed on schedule 1.
  • Diversifying customers, including national chains and private-label lines, could reduce dependence on one commercial partner 1.
  • If consumer interest in fresh, minimally processed products keeps growing, the company could extend its range and bring new formats to shelves.

Threats

  • Large beverage brands could copy the perceived look and quality of the products and use marketing power to win shelf space 1.
  • Rising refrigerated freight costs and fuel volatility could compress margins further 23.
  • Any food safety incident or cold-chain failure could damage the brand, which depends on the perception of freshness 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on a single customerhigh

    Almost all revenue comes from one customer. Losing this partner or a drop in its orders could seriously affect revenue and cash flow 1.

  • Pressure on gross marginhigh

    Costs of citrus, limes and refrigerated transport reduced gross margin in 2025 and in the first half of 2026. If these costs stay high, profitability could decline further 23.

  • Concentrated production infrastructuremedium

    The company has one plant and no redundancy. A cooling equipment failure, a power outage or a natural disaster could halt production and cause product losses 1.

  • Competition from large producersmedium

    Large beverage companies can copy fresh lines and use superior marketing resources, which could limit growth and put pressure on prices 1.

  • Geographic expansion risksmedium

    The South Carolina and Arizona/Nevada hubs are at an early stage. Delays in completion or operation below expected efficiency could slow the expansion 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If Buda Juice turns the Walmart launch into a stable presence across several states, the company could demonstrate that the UltraFresh™ model can scale nationally 3.
  • Cash remaining after the public offering gives room to invest in regional hubs without depending immediately on external financing 2.
  • If customer diversification advances and gross margin returns to earlier levels, profitability could become more predictable.

What would break the thesis

  • Near-total dependence on one customer makes revenue vulnerable to a single commercial decision by that partner 1.
  • Gross margin fell in early 2026 and net profit declined from the prior year, showing that scaling has not automatically translated into higher earnings 23.
  • The company has a limited operating history and a single plant, so the execution of geographic expansion remains unproven at scale 1.

What to watch

  • Development of gross margin and the costs of citrus and refrigerated transportQ3 2026
  • Status of the South Carolina hub, planned for completion in 20262026
  • Status of the Arizona/Nevada hub, planned for completion in 20272027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The model is B2B: retailers receive a turnkey solution without investing in cold infrastructure or trained staff for in-store juicing. The company shifted in 2020 from its own stores to direct distribution through large retail chains 1. Its legal form changed on January 1, 2026, when Buda Juice LLC of Texas became Buda Juice, Inc., a Delaware corporation 1.

Segments

Buda Juice (organic)

The premium line includes 2 oz organic wellness shots sold in 2-pack and 6-pack glass bottle configurations 1. It is the segment that supports the company's positioning as an organic, high-quality brand.

Market context

The company positions itself in the US fruit juice market, which the sources it cites describe as large and growing, but the documents provided give no verified market size figure, so no such value is presented here. Buda Juice sells mainly in Texas and neighboring states, and its national presence is still at an early stage.

The refrigerated fresh segment is the most relevant for the company, since its products compete for space in the fresh section, where retailers look for traffic and fast rotation. If the trend toward products without heat treatment strengthens, the company could benefit from its positioning, but this depends on consumer adoption and shelf space availability 1.

Trends

  • Demand for fresh and minimally processed productstailwind

    Consumers increasingly look for products perceived as fresh, and retailers see refrigerated products as drivers of store traffic. The UltraFresh™ model rests on exactly this demand 1.

  • Pressure from fruit and fuel costsheadwind

    Costs for citrus and limes rose in 2025 and in the first quarter of 2026, and diesel price volatility raised refrigerated freight costs. These costs reduced gross margin in those periods 23.

  • Geographic distribution expansionmixed

    The May 2026 Walmart launch and the planned hubs in South Carolina and Arizona/Nevada show the company trying to move beyond the Texas market. Success depends on keeping cold-chain quality over longer distances 13.

  • Costs of being a public companyheadwind

    After the listing, administrative expenses and stock-based compensation rose significantly, which reduced operating income in the early months of 2026 2.

Competitive position

The company competes with large beverage manufacturers, traditional juice brands launching fresh or cold-pressed lines, and emerging functional beverage businesses in kombucha, smoothies, flavored waters and plant-based drinks 1. Many rivals have larger marketing budgets, stronger distributor ties and can control their own production or logistics.

The company's stated advantage is its continuous cold chain from source to shelf and its relationships with citrus growers, both difficult to replicate quickly. If large brands were to copy product quality and image, Buda Juice could lose shelf space and sales velocity 1.

  • Tropicana (PepsiCo)PEP

    A major orange juice brand competing for fresh-section shelf space and the premium segment; the source refers to large beverage makers in general and does not name this company.

  • Large multinational beverage makers

    Companies with significant resources, broad distribution and the ability to launch fresh or functional lines quickly, cited in company filings as the main competitive pressure.

  • Traditional juice brands launching cold-pressed lines

    Established producers using scale and in-store presence to introduce fresh alternatives, with a risk of reducing shelf space for Buda Juice.

  • Functional and wellness beverage producers

    Emerging companies in kombucha, smoothies, flavored waters and plant-based drinks competing for health-oriented consumers.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Buda Juice, Inc. · 26 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Buda Juice, Inc. · 14 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Buda Juice, Inc. · 15 May 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.