olivLaw · US equity research
Brown-Forman Corporation BF-A
Beverages · SIC 2080 · Vertical: Beverages (SIC 2080)
Brown-Forman is one of the largest American-owned premium spirits makers, with Jack Daniel's at the centre of its portfolio. The company sells in more than 170 countries, and the United States accounted for 42% of net sales in fiscal 2026. Tariffs and softer consumption in developed markets keep sales trends in focus for investors.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-A) stock was 31.48 USD (+5.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.9 bn USD, P/E 20.3 on diluted EPS of 1.55 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.91%, beta 0.33, 52-week range 23.20–31.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 911.0 m USD (−1.4% YoY), net income of 176.0 m USD (+3.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.38 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.68 – 31.53
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.99 · band width 16.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 27.81 / 27.57
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.78 / 0.63
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +17.5% | −1.1% | +18.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.7% | −0.5% | +10.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.3% | +4.4% | +9.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +19.7% | +12.3% | +7.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +16.0% | +13.5% | +2.4 pp | +1.2% |
| 3 years | −48.6% | +76.4% | −125.0 pp | −22.9% |
| 5 years | −53.3% | +63.7% | −117.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 31 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 894.0 m | 924.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 912.0 m | 911.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 449.0 m | 416.0 m | 381.0 m | 372.0 m | 421.0 m | 416.0 m | 341.0 m | 362.0 m |
| Gross profit | 646.0 m | 619.0 m | 513.0 m | 552.0 m | 615.0 m | 640.0 m | 571.0 m | 549.0 m |
| SG&A | 185.0 m | 178.0 m | 193.0 m | 177.0 m | 187.0 m | 184.0 m | 259.0 m | 185.0 m |
| Operating income | 341.0 m | 280.0 m | 205.0 m | 260.0 m | 305.0 m | 340.0 m | 96.0 m | 252.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 22.0 m ≈ | 22.0 m ≈ | 21.0 m | 22.0 m | 22.0 m ≈ | 24.0 m ≈ | 24.0 m | 23.0 m |
| Interest expense | 32.0 m | 31.0 m | 27.0 m | 25.0 m | 26.0 m | 26.0 m | 26.0 m | 25.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 313.0 m | 332.0 m | 183.0 m | 220.0 m | 279.0 m | 315.0 m | 71.0 m | 229.0 m |
| Income tax | 55.0 m | 62.0 m | 37.0 m | 50.0 m | 55.0 m | 48.0 m | 17.0 m | 53.0 m |
| Net income | 258.0 m | 270.0 m | 146.0 m | 170.0 m | 224.0 m | 267.0 m | 54.0 m | 176.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.55 | 0.57 | 0.31 ≈ | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.12 ≈ | 0.38 |
| Operating cash flow | 112.0 m ≈ | 317.0 m ≈ | 152.0 m | 160.0 m | 132.0 m ≈ | 417.0 m ≈ | 291.0 m | 173.0 m |
| Capex | 31.0 m ≈ | 45.0 m ≈ | 50.0 m | 31.0 m | 25.0 m ≈ | 25.0 m ≈ | 26.0 m | 12.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 103.0 m ≈ | 107.0 m ≈ | 107.0 m | 107.0 m | 107.0 m ≈ | 107.0 m ≈ | 106.0 m | 106.0 m |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | 301.0 m ≈ | 0 | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 28 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 14.7, median 30.7, max 45.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +2.3% | +1.2% | +2.9% | +13.6% | +7.5% | −1.2% | −4.9% | −1.2% |
| Net income | 835.0 m | 827.0 m | 903.0 m | 838.0 m | 783.0 m | 1.0 bn | 869.0 m | 715.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +16.5% | −1.0% | +9.2% | −7.2% | −6.6% | +30.8% | −15.1% | −17.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.73 | 1.72 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 1.63 | 2.14 | 1.84 | 1.53 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +16.9% | −0.6% | +9.3% | −7.4% | −6.3% | +31.3% | −14.0% | −16.8% |
| net % | 25.1% | 24.6% | 26.1% | 21.3% | 18.5% | 24.5% | 21.9% | 18.2% |
| Free cash flow | 681.0 m | 611.0 m | 755.0 m | 798.0 m | 457.0 m | 419.0 m | 431.0 m | 893.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Apr 2026
- Cash
- 308.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.8 bn USD
- Equity
- 4.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.54x
- Current ratio
- 3.24x
- ROE
- 17.8%
- ROA
- 8.9%
- FCF margin
- 22.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| SG&A | 671.0 m | 690.0 m | 742.0 m | 826.0 m | 744.0 m | 807.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 77.0 m | 79.0 m | 80.0 m | 87.0 m | 87.0 m | 92.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 81.0 m | 82.0 m | 90.0 m | 127.0 m | 122.0 m | 103.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 885.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | 178.0 m | 276.0 m | 234.0 m | 274.0 m | 212.0 m | 170.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | 903.0 m | 838.0 m | 783.0 m | 1.0 bn | 869.0 m | 715.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.88 | 1.74 | 1.63 | 2.14 | 1.84 | 1.53 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 480.7 m | 480.6 m | 480.5 m | 477.2 m | 473.0 m | 466.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.71 | 1.74 | 0.79 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.92 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.2 bn | 868.0 m | 374.0 m | 446.0 m | 444.0 m | 308.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Receivables | 753.0 m | 813.0 m | 855.0 m | 769.0 m | 830.0 m | 832.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 832.0 m | 875.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 779.0 m | 761.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 676.0 m | 586.0 m | 1.2 bn | 990.0 m | 981.0 m | 943.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.5 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.1 bn | 7.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 205.0 m | 0 | 235.0 m | 428.0 m | 312.0 m | 68.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 918.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.7 bn † | 2.7 bn † | 3.3 bn † | 3.5 bn † | 4.0 bn † | 4.0 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 817.0 m | 936.0 m | 640.0 m | 647.0 m | 598.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | 62.0 m | 138.0 m | 183.0 m | 228.0 m | 167.0 m | 107.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 755.0 m ≈ | 798.0 m ≈ | 457.0 m ≈ | 419.0 m ≈ | 431.0 m ≈ | 893.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 98.0 m | -127.0 m | -1.4 bn | 49.0 m | 249.0 m | -71.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -485.0 m | -1.0 bn | 239.0 m | -618.0 m | -843.0 m | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 338.0 m | 831.0 m | 378.0 m | 404.0 m | 420.0 m | 427.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 | 400.0 m | 0 | 400.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 66 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 14.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet79
- Valuation73
- Quality83
- Growth0
- Returns88
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 12.02 – 53.33 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)21.32 – 36.39 (Mid 27.03)WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 1.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 3.2%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA21.33 – 52.17 (Mid 50.04)5 companies used · median multiple 23.8x · quartiles 11.3x – 24.7xBUDA, KO, PEP, PRMB, WEST
- Peers: P/E43.64 – 53.33 (Mid 50.87)5 companies used · median multiple 32.9x · quartiles 28.2x – 34.5xBUDA, COCO, KDP, KO, PEP
- Dividend discount (DDM)12.02 – 16.17 (Mid 13.79)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 66/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.4% | 69 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 18.4% | 88 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 128.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 57 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.3x | 75 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 15.7x | 67 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.2% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.6% | 79 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 46.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet79/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns88/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
BROWN FORMAN CORP (BF-A). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.9 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -1.2%; net margin 18.4%; ROE 18.1%; net debt/EBITDA 2.0x.
The estimated value range is 21.33–44.28 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 38.54 USD, the price of 31.48 USD leaves a potential of 22.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 18.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 18.4%
- FCF conversion: 128.3%
- Interest coverage: 9.6x
- Current ratio: 3.3x
- P/E (TTM): 20.3x
- FCF yield: 6.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 46.1%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -2.1%
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Beverages (SIC 2080) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOCoca Cola Co | 412.1 bn | 28.2 | 42.6% | 28.7% | +1.9% | +31% / +64% |
| DEODIAGEO plc | 237.6 bn | 92.4 | 24.0% | 9.1% | +0.3% | +7% / −30% |
| PEPPepsico Inc | 194.1 bn | 18.7 | 50.1% | 10.8% | +2.3% | −4% / −15% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 50.1 bn | 37.2 | 5.7% | 7.1% | +8.2% | +32% / +17% |
| BF-ABrown Forman Corp | 14.9 bn | 20.3 | 18.1% | 18.4% | −1.2% | +16% / −49% |
| PRMBPrimo Brands Corp | 7.6 bn | 79.4 | 3.2% | 1.5% | +29.3% | +34% / +46% |
| COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc. | 3.7 bn | 32.9 | 32.0% | 15.7% | +18.2% | +23% / +133% |
| WESTWestrock Coffee Company | 1.0 bn | — | — | -4.9% | +39.8% | +138% / +13% |
| BUDABuda Juice, Inc. | 83.2 m | 34.5 | 19.3% | 17.1% | +11.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SRXHSRX Global Inc. | 18.0 m | — | -70.8% | -254.8% | −81.3% | −96% / −100% |
| WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc. | 8.3 m | — | -3.3% | -5.9% | −6.5% | −37% / −68% |
| YHCLQR House Inc. | 2.9 m | 0.2 | -88.2% | -1,589.2% | −37.4% | −98% / −100% |
| IPSTIp Strategy Holdings, Inc. | 2.3 m | — | -2,713.2% | -2,064.0% | +20.4% | −98% / unavailable |
| EDVAEndovia Health Sciences, Inc. | 1.2 m | — | — | -53,856.5% | −90.9% | −96% / −100% |
| BRCCBRC Inc. | 903.4 k | — | -14.2% | -1.5% | +1.7% | −23% / −77% |
| IBGInnovation Beverage Group Limited | 593.4 k | — | — | -223.4% | −5.1% | −94% / unavailable |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | — | — | 23.9% | 20.9% | −10.5% | +7% / −40% |
| ABEVAmbev S.A. | — | — | 16.6% | 17.6% | −1.4% | +9% / +1% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BF-A from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 17.07 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 30.28 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 45.76 Total return 49% · Per year 49% |
| 3 years | 14.34 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 28.83 Total return -0% · Per year -0% | 48.15 Total return 63% · Per year 18% |
| 5 years | 12.05 Total return -53% · Per year -14% | 27.45 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 50.66 Total return 79% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 7.21
- Net margin± 5.05
- Annual revenue growth± 4.44
- Annual dilution± 0.42
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Brown-Forman is one of the largest American-owned premium spirits makers, with Jack Daniel's at the centre of its portfolio. The company sells in more than 170 countries, and the United States accounted for 42% of net sales in fiscal 2026 1. Tariffs and softer consumption in developed markets keep sales trends in focus for investors 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio of globally recognised brands, especially Jack Daniel's, which is the company's financial engine 1.
- Family control and a stable governance structure, with a long record of regular dividends 13.
- Broad geographic reach, selling in more than 170 countries with owned distribution in several major markets 1.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on one brand means reputational problems or a decline in Jack Daniel's sales could have strong effects on results 1.
- Sales fell in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and developed international revenues were under pressure 2.
- Inventory of aged products ties up capital and could lead to write-offs if demand shifts away from forecasts 1.
Opportunities
- Growth in the RTD category and the success of New Mix in Mexico and the US could offset declines elsewhere 23.
- Expanding premium brands such as Woodford Reserve and Old Forester in international markets could support long-term growth 1.
- The restructuring and US distributor changes could improve cost and operating efficiency 3.
Risks
- Dependence on Jack Daniel'shigh
Financial health depends heavily on the Jack Daniel's brand, and a prolonged sales decline or reputational harm could affect results 1.
- Trade tariffshigh
Tariffs and retaliatory measures in international trade could raise product costs and reduce margins if not passed on to customers 1.
- Changing consumptionmedium
Consumers could shift to other products or reduce alcohol consumption, which could lower premium sales 1.
- Distribution changesmedium
The move to owned distribution and changes in distributors could disrupt sales and increase costs 13.
- Concentrated productionlow
Some major brands are distilled at single locations, so a major incident could interrupt supply 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If RTD and New Mix keep growing, the company could offset weakness in other categories and sustain high gross margins 23.
- The strength of premium brands and family control could support long-term investment and dividends 13.
- Continued innovation, such as the launch of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry, could open new growth opportunities 2.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Organic net sales trend and fiscal 2027 guidance2027
- Impact of US tariffs on costs and marginsnext 10-K
- Performance of Jack Daniel's sales in developed marketsQ2 2027
- Effects of the restructuring and US distributor changes2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports and sells a wide range of beverage alcohol brands, including Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, el Jimador and Herradura 1. It employs about 4,900 people and has its world headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky 1. The company describes itself as the largest American-owned premium-plus spirits company, and the Brown family owns more than 50% of voting stock 1.
Its route to consumer varies by market: in the US products are sold to distributors or to state governments that control alcohol sales, while outside the US it owns distribution companies in 17 countries or works through partners and governments 1. The fourth calendar quarter is the peak season, representing about 30% of net sales in fiscal 2026 1.
The largest customer accounted for about 10% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2026, and many products must be aged for years, making inventories large relative to sales 1.
Segments
American whiskey
The Jack Daniel's family alongside Woodford Reserve and Old Forester forms the core of the portfolio, and Jack Daniel's is the main driver of financial performance 1. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 whiskey net sales were flat, with JDTW flat and supported by new launches such as JDTB 23.
Market context
The company sells in more than 170 countries, with the US its most important market at 42% of net sales in fiscal 2026, followed by Mexico, Germany and Australia 1. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 developed international sales fell while emerging markets grew, with Mexico among the strongest 23.
Competition remains intense, with the ten largest spirits companies controlling over 20% of global spirits volume in 2025 according to IWSR data cited by the company 1. Pressure also comes from distributor consolidation and weaker consumption in developed markets 13.
Trends
- Tariffs and international tradeheadwind
US tariffs and retaliatory measures by other countries could raise product costs and reduce availability in some markets, and margins could suffer if costs are not passed on to customers 1.
- Softer consumption in developed marketsheadwind
Macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical instability are weighing on beverage alcohol consumption, particularly in developed markets, according to the company 3.
- Product innovationtailwind
New launches such as Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry and the growth of New Mix support sales in premium and RTD categories 23.
- Changes in distributionmixed
The restructuring and US distributor changes could bring benefits, but the transition to owned distribution carries operational and execution risks 13.
Competitive position
Brown-Forman competes with large global spirits groups such as Bacardi, Becle, Campari, Diageo, LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Rémy Cointreau and Suntory, as well as national and craft brands in the US 1. The company considers its competitive position strong given brand awareness and innovation 1.
Competition could intensify as new entrants arrive, and beer and soft drink companies entering the RTD market could reduce demand for premium brands 1.
- DiageoDEO
Large global spirits group named in the company's filing as a major competitor, with ADRs listed in the US.
- Pernod Ricard
French premium spirits group named among the company's global competitors.
- Bacardi Limited
Global rum and spirits producer named among the main competitors.
- Becle
Mexican tequila company cited as a direct rival in the tequila category.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Is Brown-Forman Stock Underperforming the Nasdaq?Yahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Brown-Forman adds Switzerland to Coca-Cola HBC tie-upsYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Brown-Forman (BF-B) Struggles with Weak Spirits Demand and Canada HeadwindsYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: PG&E, Dell, GitLab, Credo Technology, Brown-Forman & moreCNBC — Top News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-04-30 · SEC / Brown-Forman Corporation · 12 Jun 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / Brown-Forman Corporation · 02 Sept 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Brown-Forman Corporation · 02 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.