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olivLaw · US equity research

Starbucks Corporation SBUX

Retail-Eating & Drinking Places · SIC 5810 · Vertical: Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810)

109.70USD+4.71% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Starbucks is the world's leading specialty coffee roaster and retailer, operating in 89 markets, with net revenues of 37.2 billion USD in fiscal 2025. The company is pursuing its Back to Starbucks strategy of renewed growth through restructuring, coffeehouse closures and staffing investment, and recent quarterly results show a recovery in comparable store sales.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) stock was 109.70 USD (+4.71% on the day), with market capitalisation 125.1 bn USD, P/E 63.2 on diluted EPS of 1.74 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.26%, beta 0.87, 52-week range 82.22–109.70 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 9.3 bn USD (−1.4% YoY), net income of 1.0 bn USD (+87.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.91 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
125.1 bn USD
shares as of 23 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
63.2
Diluted EPS TTM 1.74 · TTM to 28 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.58%
TTM to 28 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.26%
DPS 12m 2.48
Beta (2y)
0.87
Volatility (1y) 28%
52-week range
82.22109.70

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
74.2
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
89.30 – 109.89
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.99 · band width 20.7%
SMA 50 / 200
99.23 / 100.04
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.52 / 1.48
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+16.2%−1.1%+17.3 pp—
3 months+3.5%−0.5%+3.9 pp—
6 months+3.1%+4.4%−1.3 pp—
Year to date+30.3%+12.3%+18.0 pp—
1 year+37.8%+13.5%+24.3 pp−16.8%
3 years+6.9%+76.4%−69.5 pp+1.7%
5 years−6.2%+63.7%−69.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−16.4%
13 Aug 2026 → 09 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−40.2%
31 Dec 2021 → 12 May 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
−1.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 28 Jun 2026

Revenue
9.3 bn USD
−1.4% YoY
Net income
1.0 bn USD
+87.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.91
+85.7% YoY
net / operating
11.2% / 10.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue9.1 bn9.4 bn8.8 bn9.5 bn9.6 bn9.9 bn9.5 bn9.3 bn
Operating income1.3 bn1.1 bn601.0 m935.6 m278.2 m890.8 m828.1 m980.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation401.4 m432.2 m418.9 m427.6 m456.0 m431.9 m389.2 m ≈389.7 m ≈
Interest expense140.0 m127.2 m127.3 m142.3 m145.8 m139.0 m137.0 m134.6 m
Pre-tax income1.2 bn1.0 bn502.1 m818.9 m163.9 m764.8 m728.1 m1.4 bn
Income tax284.1 m241.4 m118.0 m260.4 m30.7 m471.6 m217.3 m374.4 m
Net income909.2 m780.8 m384.2 m558.3 m133.2 m293.3 m510.9 m1.0 bn
Diluted EPS0.80 ≈0.690.340.490.12 ≈0.260.450.91
Operating cash flow1.5 bn2.1 bn292.0 m ≈1.0 bn ≈1.4 bn1.6 bn364.5 m ≈1.6 bn ≈
Capex798.2 m692.9 m589.2 m ≈567.4 m ≈456.0 m323.7 m272.7 m ≈291.4 m ≈
Dividends paid646.0 m691.9 m693.0 m ≈693.2 m ≈693.3 m705.1 m706.3 m ≈706.6 m ≈
Share repurchases000 ≈0 ≈0———

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 15.3, median 29.9, max 182.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue24.7 bn26.5 bn23.5 bn29.1 bn32.3 bn36.0 bn36.2 bn37.2 bn
Revenue YoY+10.4%+7.2%−11.3%+23.6%+11.0%+11.6%+0.6%+2.8%
Net income4.5 bn3.6 bn928.3 m4.2 bn3.3 bn4.1 bn3.8 bn1.9 bn
Net income YoY+56.6%−20.3%−74.2%+352.4%−21.9%+25.7%−8.8%−50.6%
Diluted EPS3.242.920.793.542.833.583.311.63
Diluted EPS YoY+64.5%−9.9%−72.9%+348.1%−20.1%+26.5%−7.5%−50.8%
net %18.3%13.6%3.9%14.5%10.2%11.5%10.4%5.0%
Free cash flow10.0 bn3.2 bn114.2 m4.5 bn2.6 bn3.7 bn3.3 bn2.4 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Sept 2025

Cash
3.2 bn USD
Financial debt
16.1 bn USD
Net debt
12.9 bn USD
Equity
-8.1 bn USD
Total assets
32.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.72x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
5.9%
FCF margin
6.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
36.0 bn
2024
36.2 bn
2025
37.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Operating income
2023
5.9 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
7.3 bn ≈
2024
7.0 bn ≈
2025
4.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
550.1 m
2024
562.0 m
2025
542.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
5.4 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Income tax
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
650.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Net income
2023
4.1 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.58
2024
3.31
2025
1.63

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.16
2024
2.32
2025
2.45

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Receivables
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Inventories
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Current assets
2023
7.3 bn
2024
6.8 bn
2025
7.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
7.4 bn
2024
8.7 bn
2025
8.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
120.5 m
2024
100.9 m
2025
166.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Total assets
2023
29.4 bn
2024
31.3 bn
2025
32.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
33.5 m
2024
0
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
13.5 bn
2024
14.3 bn
2025
14.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
9.3 bn
2024
9.1 bn
2025
10.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Total liabilities
2023
37.4 bn
2024
38.8 bn
2025
40.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Equity
2023
-8.0 bn
2024
-7.4 bn
2025
-8.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
6.0 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
4.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Capex
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
3.7 bn ≈
2024
3.3 bn ≈
2025
2.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-2.3 bn
2024
-2.7 bn
2025
-2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-3.0 bn
2024
-3.7 bn
2025
-2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
984.4 m
2024
1.3 bn
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-45.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-50.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-17.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
14.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-50.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-16.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
15.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-26.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Net margin
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
FCF margin
9.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
16.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
142.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
77.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
9.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
5.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
5.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
1.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
3.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
183.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
107.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
12 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
125.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
134.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
63.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
63.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
3.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
29.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
45.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
P/FCF
34.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
FCF yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 39 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

109.70 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 125.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
125.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
63.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
29.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 28 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 28 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Jul 2026
verified 2987derived 214

Score by group

  • Balance sheet45
  • Valuation25
  • Quality86
  • Growth20
  • Returns44

Estimated value range

Low
32.20
USD per share
Mid
51.84
USD per share
High
69.51
USD per share
Price: 109.70 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -52.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -111.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 23.94 – 113.37 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)40.96 – 69.51 (Mid 51.84)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 4.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 37.6%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/E23.94 – 113.37 (Mid 65.83)
    4 companies used · median multiple 37.9x · quartiles 13.8x – 65.3x
    BROS, CHA, SHAK, WEN
  • Dividend discount (DDM)32.20 – 43.30 (Mid 36.93)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 39/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality5.2%71 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality183.7%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.9%40 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-16.8%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.1x54 (on a fixed band)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet5.4x59 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x0 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation63.2x40 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation29.0x0 (on a fixed band)12%
FCF yield · Valuation2.9%36 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.2%32 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns77.2%61 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet45/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth20/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality86/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation25/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-28.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 37.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.8%; net margin 5.2%; net debt/EBITDA 2.1x.

The estimated value range is 32.20–69.51 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 51.84 USD, the price of 109.70 USD leaves a potential of -52.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -111.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 39/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 5.2%
  • FCF conversion: 183.7%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -16.8%
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 29.0x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
63.2x
vertical median 61.3x
at median
EV/EBITDA
29.0x
vertical median —
P/S
3.3x
vertical median 1.3x
above median (+147.2%)
P/B
—
vertical median 5.4x
ROE
—
vertical median 7.7%
Net margin
5.2%
vertical median 2.6%
above median (+102.1%)
EBIT margin
7.8%
vertical median 3.6%
above median (+117.6%)
Revenue YoY
2.8%
vertical median 6.1%
below median (−54.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
2.1x
vertical median 0.3x
above median (+508.9%)
Dividend yield
2.3%
vertical median 7.2%
below median (−68.8%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SBUXStarbucks Corporation125.1 bn63.2—5.2%+2.8%+38% / +7%
BROSDutch Bros Inc.6.8 bn61.312.9%4.9%+27.9%−25% / +65%
CHAChagee Holdings Ltd.2.4 bn14.516.0%9.1%unavailable−15% / unavailable
WENWendy's Co1.5 bn11.6108.0%5.7%−3.1%−9% / −59%
CNNECannae Holdings, Inc.792.4 m—-13.3%-38.2%−6.4%+13% / +2%
SDOTSadot Group Inc.7.8 m—-486.7%-24.1%−64.8%−90% / −99%
BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.—190.72.8%0.7%+24.5%−52% / unavailable
SHAKShake Shack Inc.—77.27.7%2.6%+15.4%−17% / +20%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SBUX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
65.17
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
115.19
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
173.49
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
63.71
Total return -38% · Per year -15%
126.66
Total return 21% · Per year 6%
209.39
Total return 97% · Per year 25%
5 years
62.28
Total return -37% · Per year -9%
139.27
Total return 36% · Per year 6%
252.71
Total return 143% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 31.67
  • Net margin± 22.17
  • Annual revenue growth± 18.13
  • Annual dilution± 1.86

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Starbucks is the world's leading specialty coffee roaster and retailer, operating in 89 markets, with net revenues of 37.2 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. The company is pursuing its Back to Starbucks strategy of renewed growth through restructuring, coffeehouse closures and staffing investment, and recent quarterly results show a recovery in comparable store sales 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The global brand is widely recognised and the large store network gives scale and visibility 1.
  • The mix of company-operated and licensed stores allows expansion with a diversified capital profile 1.
  • Partnerships such as the Global Coffee Alliance generate channel revenue without owning stores 1.

Weaknesses

  • Operating margin fell sharply in fiscal 2025 because of restructuring and labour costs 1.
  • Comparable store sales declined in fiscal 2025 and store traffic was weaker 1.
  • Reliance on the North America segment makes performance sensitive to the U.S. market 1.

Opportunities

  • The return of comparable sales and margin in recent quarters could support more balanced growth 3.
  • Licensed expansion in growing markets could add revenue without large capital outlays 13.
  • Digital services, loyalty and delivery could raise visit frequency and basket size 1.

Threats

  • Volatile coffee prices and tariffs could reduce margins if not offset by pricing 1.
  • Changing consumer behaviour and tighter budgets could weigh on demand for premium beverages 1.
  • Food safety incidents or reputational problems could quickly hurt sales and the brand 1.

Risks

  • Execution of Back to Starbuckshigh

    The restructuring and staffing investments might not deliver expected results, especially if costs exceed estimates 1.

  • Reliance on the U.S. markethigh

    A weak North America segment could strongly affect consolidated results, given its large share of revenue 1.

  • Coffee costs and tariffsmedium

    Raw material inflation and tariffs could reduce operating margin if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.

  • Food safety risksmedium

    Contamination or mislabelling incidents could lead to lost sales, recalls and reputational damage 1.

  • Licensed partnerslow

    Service quality and brand standards depend on licensed partners that the company does not control directly 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the recovery in comparable sales and traffic holds, the company could rebuild operating margin and sustain its dividend 3.
  • The global brand and large store network provide a solid base for growth in existing and new markets 1.
  • The China joint venture and licensed model could reduce costs and add financial flexibility 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If margins do not recover, stable revenues may not be enough to fund investment and shareholder distributions, cautious analysts might argue 1.
  • Dependence on discretionary spending and U.S. traffic could leave results exposed to an economic slowdown 1.
  • Restructuring and store closures could bring extra costs and lost sales during the transition period 1.

What to watch

  • Fourth-quarter results and final fiscal 2026 guidanceQ4 2026
  • Development of U.S. comparable store sales and transactionsQ4 2026
  • Effects of the China joint venture on revenues and margins2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Starbucks is a roaster, marketer and retailer of specialty coffee, with the flagship Starbucks Coffee brand plus Teavana, Ethos and Starbucks Reserve 1. It sells coffee, tea and beverages through company-operated coffeehouses and licensed stores, as well as through channels such as the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé 1. Company-operated stores generated 83% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025 1.

The model combines owned stores with licensed stores, which allows expansion into new markets without carrying all operating costs 1. The company also runs a digital platform, loyalty and delivery initiatives as part of its growth strategy 1. It employed approximately 381,000 people at the end of fiscal 2025 1.

Segments

Channel Development

Channel Development includes retail whole bean and ground coffee, single-serve products and ready-to-drink beverages, largely distributed through the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé and partnerships with PepsiCo 1. It accounted for 5% of fiscal 2025 revenues 1.

Market context

The global specialty coffee market is dominated by large chains and coffee producers, and Starbucks bases its position on its brand, store network and purchasing scale 1. Revenues rose 3% in fiscal 2025, but profitability fell under the weight of investment and restructuring costs 1.

Demand depends on discretionary consumer spending, while coffee prices and tariffs can affect costs and pricing 1. The third quarter of fiscal 2026 shows a return of traffic to stores, with comparable transactions growing 3.

Trends

  • Back to Starbucks strategymixed

    The recovery plan aims to rebuild the coffeehouse experience, invest in staff and close unprofitable stores; gains appear as comparable sales grow 13.

  • Recovery in store traffictailwind

    Growth in comparable transactions in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 suggests a recovery in U.S. demand, if the trend holds 3.

  • Coffee costs and tariffsheadwind

    Volatile coffee prices and tariffs could pressure margins, although tariff refunds helped recent quarterly results 13.

  • China joint venturemixed

    The venture with Boyu Capital reduces direct retail exposure in China but could accelerate long-term growth if execution is sound 13.

Competitive position

Starbucks competes with coffee chains, independent cafés and coffee producers in retail and ready-to-drink beverages 1. Its advantages include global brand recognition, its store network and distribution partnerships, but price and experience competition remains intense 1.

  • Nestlé

    Partner in the Global Coffee Alliance and competitor in retail coffee products, a source of channel revenue 1.

  • PepsiCoPEP

    Partner for ready-to-drink beverages in the Channel Development segment 1.

  • Global coffee chains

    Competitors in the U.S. and international markets that influence pricing and store traffic 1.

  • Independent cafés

    Local competitors that attract customers with distinctive products and community ties 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-28 · SEC / Starbucks Corporation · 14 Nov 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Starbucks Corporation · 29 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Starbucks Corporation · 29 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw