olivLaw · US equity research
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. BRCB
Retail-Eating & Drinking Places · SIC 5810 · Vertical: Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810)
Black Rock Coffee Bar is a fast-growing operator of drive-thru coffee bars, with more than 200 fully company-owned locations spread across seven states from the Pacific Northwest to Texas. The company listed on Nasdaq in 2025 and, through its coffee shops and its proprietary Fuel beverage line, aims to widen its market footprint while its profitability remains under pressure.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB) stock was 10.99 USD (+11.23% on the day), with P/E 190.7 on diluted EPS of 0.06 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.85, 52-week range 6.19–24.68 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 63.0 m USD (+25.0% YoY), net income of 1.2 m USD, diluted EPS 0.06 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.41 – 11.66
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.87 · band width 58.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 8.41 / 10.44
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.78 / 0.61
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +58.8% | −1.1% | +59.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +29.0% | −0.5% | +29.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.2% | +4.4% | −13.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −50.6% | +12.3% | −62.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −55.5% | +13.5% | −69.0 pp | −14.8% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +6.1% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.5 m | 42.8 m | 44.8 m | 50.4 m | 51.5 m | 53.6 m | 55.5 m | 63.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 29.7 m | 31.2 m | 32.1 m | 35.5 m | 36.2 m | 37.8 m | 39.0 m | 43.9 m |
| SG&A | 4.9 m | 7.8 m | 6.9 m | 7.9 m | 17.2 m | 9.4 m | 9.2 m | 9.8 m |
| Operating income | 3.1 m | -112.0 k | 2.3 m | 3.3 m | -6.4 m | 1.8 m | 2.7 m | 4.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.5 m | 3.0 m | 2.9 m | 2.9 m | 3.0 m | 3.3 m | 3.5 m | 3.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | -651.0 k | -4.2 m | -806.0 k | -917.0 k | -16.1 m | 1.8 m | 1.9 m | 3.3 m |
| Income tax | 71.0 k | 73.0 k | 78.0 k | 144.0 k | 31.0 k | 222.0 k | 103.0 k | 101.0 k |
| Net income | -722.0 k | -4.2 m | 0 | 0 | -712.0 k | 652.0 k | 378.0 k | 1.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | -0.05 | 0.03 ≈ | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Operating cash flow | — | 4.2 m | 3.4 m | 5.0 m ≈ | -11.3 m ≈ | 5.1 m | 6.8 m | 12.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | — | 3.9 m | 6.5 m | 8.5 m ≈ | 7.9 m ≈ | 12.0 m | 16.2 m | 16.9 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 143.8, median 143.8, max 143.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 133.2 m | 160.9 m | 200.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +20.8% | +24.5% |
| Net income | -8.8 m | -7.2 m | -60.0 k |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | 0.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -6.6% | -4.5% | -0.0% |
| Free cash flow | -11.0 m | -8.9 m | -32.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 28.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 26.8 m USD
- Net debt
- -1.7 m USD
- Equity
- 104.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 336.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.26x
- Current ratio
- 1.04x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -0.0%
- FCF margin
- -16.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 133.2 m | 160.9 m | 200.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 100.3 m | 115.9 m | 141.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 32.9 m ≈ | 45.0 m ≈ | 58.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| SG&A | 20.3 m | 25.3 m | 41.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.0 m | 6.0 m | 901.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 8.5 m | 10.4 m | 12.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 10.6 m ≈ | 16.4 m ≈ | 13.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -8.3 m | -6.9 m | -16.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 357.0 k | 270.0 k | 475.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -8.8 m | -7.2 m | -60.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | 0.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | — | 17.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 17.2 m | 10.2 m | 28.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 2.1 m | 2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 19.4 m | 40.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 70.0 m | 101.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 9.4 m | 9.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 7.3 m | 5.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 212.9 m | 336.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 6.6 m | 12.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 925.0 k | 835.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 89.3 m | 25.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 33.3 m | 38.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 229.6 m | 231.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | — | -257.8 m | 104.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 5.2 m | 13.3 m | 2.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 16.2 m | 22.2 m | 34.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -11.0 m ≈ | -8.9 m ≈ | -32.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -15.4 m | -22.9 m | -35.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 21.6 m | 2.6 m | 51.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.84 – 3.64 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.84 – 3.64 (Mid 3.53)5 companies used · median multiple 61.3x · quartiles 14.5x – 63.2xBROS, CHA, SBUX, SHAK, WEN
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.7% | 29 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -2,607.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 190.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet63/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality8/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 200.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 24.5%; net margin 0.7%; ROE 2.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.9x.
The estimated value range is 0.84–3.64 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.53 USD, the price of 10.99 USD leaves a potential of -67.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -211.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.9x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 1.5%
- Net margin: 0.7%
- FCF conversion: -2,607.2%
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- P/E (TTM): 190.7x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUXStarbucks Corporation | 125.1 bn | 63.2 | — | 5.2% | +2.8% | +26% / +10% |
| BROSDutch Bros Inc. | 6.8 bn | 61.3 | 12.9% | 4.9% | +27.9% | −25% / +65% |
| CHAChagee Holdings Ltd. | 2.4 bn | 14.5 | 16.0% | 9.1% | unavailable | −15% / unavailable |
| WENWendy's Co | 1.5 bn | 11.6 | 108.0% | 5.7% | −3.1% | −9% / −59% |
| CNNECannae Holdings, Inc. | 792.4 m | — | -13.3% | -38.2% | −6.4% | +13% / +2% |
| SDOTSadot Group Inc. | 7.8 m | — | -486.7% | -24.1% | −64.8% | −90% / −99% |
| BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. | — | 190.7 | 2.8% | 0.7% | +24.5% | −55% / unavailable |
| SHAKShake Shack Inc. | — | 77.2 | 7.7% | 2.6% | +15.4% | −17% / +20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BRCB from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Black Rock Coffee Bar is a fast-growing operator of drive-thru coffee bars, with more than 200 fully company-owned locations spread across seven states from the Pacific Northwest to Texas. The company listed on Nasdaq in 2025 and, through its coffee shops and its proprietary Fuel beverage line, aims to widen its market footprint while its profitability remains under pressure.
SWOT
Strengths
- Fully company-owned model with drive-thru and lobby formats, which allows tight control over quality and the guest experience.
- Proprietary Fuel energy drink line and a loyalty program with fast adoption, both supporting visit frequency and differentiation.
- In-house roasting capacity and an integrated supply chain that support product consistency at national scale.
Weaknesses
- A history of net losses in every year since inception, and an operating margin that declined in 2025 compared with the prior year 1.
- Dependence on a small number of suppliers and two roasting facilities, which could expose the company to supply chain interruptions.
- High spending on new store openings, which could strain cash and debt even though the credit facilities remain largely undrawn 3.
Opportunities
- Room to grow in existing and new markets, supported by a largely committed development pipeline for 2026 and 2027 3.
- Expansion of the product range and of offers across customer segments, including loyalty programs and daypart-based offers 3.
- Greater brand awareness in regions where the company already operates, which could support sales per store.
Threats
- Intense competition from large chains and new delivery services, which could pressure prices and traffic.
- Negative publicity about caffeine, sugar and energy drinks, which could reduce demand for core products 1.
- Cost inflation and wage pressure, which could compress margins if not offset by pricing 2.
Risks
- Losses and profitabilityhigh
The company has reported net losses every year since inception and might not reach profitability if expenses keep rising faster than revenue 1.
- Food safetyhigh
Incidents of foodborne illness or hygiene failures, whether real or merely perceived, could damage the brand and lead to temporary store closures 1.
- Consumer preferencesmedium
Changing attitudes toward caffeine, sugar and energy drinks could reduce store traffic and demand for Fuel products 1.
- Store expansionmedium
Opening new stores depends on finding suitable sites, securing financing and hiring skilled staff; setbacks could slow growth 1.
- Supplier dependencelow
Reliance on a small number of suppliers and two roasting facilities could cause supply interruptions or cost increases 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If expansion into new markets proceeds as planned, the company could keep growing total revenue at a high pace, supported by an approved pipeline of locations.
- Rising store-level profitability and the loyalty program could show that the operating model is improving as the company grows.
- The proprietary Fuel line could remain a point of differentiation, especially if it keeps attracting younger customers.
What would break the thesis
- Historical net losses and a falling operating margin show that rapid expansion might not automatically translate into profit.
- The slowdown in same store sales in the second quarter of 2026 could point to pressure on traffic, especially after a year of strong growth.
- Competition from chains with much larger resources and from delivery services could make it harder to retain customers.
What to watch
- Delivery of the total revenue guidance and new store openingsQ4 2026
- Trend in same store sales and guest trafficQ3 2026
- Debt levels and credit facility usage, including the revolving facility2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Core operations include coffee roasted in small batches at two company facilities, in Tempe, Arizona and Vancouver, Washington 1. Total revenue grew 24.5% in 2025 1 and 25.0% in the second quarter of 2026 3. Store-Level Profit Margin was 29.2% in 2025 1 and 30.2% in the second quarter of 2026 3, while the operating margin stood at 0.4% in 2025 1.
For 2026 the company guided to 38 new store openings and total revenue between $255 and $257 million, according to the updated August 2026 guidance 3. The loyalty program is treated as a key sales driver, and the company stresses its ties to local communities.
Segments
Drive-thru and lobby coffee bars
The coffee bars, with drive-thrus and in many cases lobbies, are the main source of revenue. Store revenue was $200,086 thousand in 2025 1, and store revenue in the second quarter of 2026 reached $62,933 thousand 2.
Fuel beverages and proprietary products
The in-house Fuel energy drinks accounted for about 24% of total revenue in 2025 1. The company sees them as a growth engine and a differentiator, and the range also includes products such as K-Cup pods and custom blend roasted beans.
Market context
The US premium caffeinated beverage market is competitive, and Black Rock points to several segments: specialty coffee shops, quick service restaurants and convenience stores. The company describes significant room to grow in both existing and new markets, and drive-thru formats are typically pursued in high-traffic commuter corridors 1. The pace of new store openings is a key factor, since new stores have underpinned revenue growth 12.
Trends
- Customer loyaltytailwind
The loyalty program has become an important part of sales, and members visit more often with higher average checks, which could support results over the longer term 1.
- Concerns over caffeine and sugarheadwind
Negative publicity about caffeine and sugar content, especially for energy drinks, could reduce demand if critical studies appear 1.
- Cost and consumer pressuremixed
Inflation, wage increases and a possible drop in discretionary spending could weigh on margins and traffic, with visible effects in quarterly figures 21.
Competitive position
The company faces competition from national and regional coffee chains, quick service restaurants, convenience stores and coffee delivery services. The annual report names Starbucks and Dutch Bros explicitly as rivals 1. Some competitors have far greater financial resources and stronger brand recognition.
The risk is that larger competitors adopt elements of the Black Rock model, such as digital ordering, loyalty programs and drive-thru convenience, which could reduce the company's differentiation 1.
- StarbucksSBUX
Global coffee chain explicitly named in the annual report as a principal competitor of Black Rock.
- Dutch BrosBROS
Drive-thru coffee chain explicitly named in the annual report as a direct competitor.
- Drive-thru quick service restaurants
Competitor category named in the report that competes for guests and store locations.
- Convenience stores and coffee delivery services
Competitor category named in the report, including delivery options that add alternatives for guests.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Aggressive Store Additions Challenge Black Rock Coffee Bar’s (BRCB) Long-Term Expansion ThesisYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report12 Aug 2026
- Current report11 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report20 May 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report13 May 2026
- Current report12 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement16 Apr 2026
- Current report20 Mar 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Mar 2026Item 4.01 · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report04 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. · 04 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. · 12 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.