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olivLaw · US equity research

Shake Shack Inc. SHAK

Retail-Eating & Drinking Places · SIC 5810 · Vertical: Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810)

72.82USD+3.82% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) operates a US chain of fine-casual restaurants serving premium versions of American classics such as Angus beef burgers. The company is trying to accelerate growth through new restaurants, digital channels and menu innovation, at a time when same-Shack sales and guest traffic are under pressure. About 703 Shacks were in operation at the end of the first half of 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) stock was 72.82 USD (+3.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 0 USD, P/E 77.2 on diluted EPS of 0.94 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.53, 52-week range 52.34–104.69 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 417.6 m USD (+17.2% YoY), net income of 15.7 m USD (−8.6% YoY), diluted EPS 0.37 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
0 USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2014
P/E (TTM)
77.2
Diluted EPS TTM 0.94 · TTM to 01 Jul 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.29%
TTM to 01 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.53
Volatility (1y) 58%
52-week range
52.34104.69

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.1
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
64.21 – 73.74
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 13.8%
SMA 50 / 200
65.08 / 74.63
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.77 / 1.42
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+16.7%−1.1%+17.8 pp—
3 months−2.0%−0.5%−1.6 pp—
6 months−24.6%+4.4%−28.9 pp—
Year to date−10.3%+12.3%−22.6 pp—
1 year−22.9%+13.5%−36.4 pp−14.8%
3 years+22.4%+76.4%−54.0 pp+1.7%
5 years−20.0%+63.7%−83.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−50.0%
20 Apr 2026 → 05 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−63.1%
10 Jul 2025 → 05 Jun 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−4.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 01 Jul 2026

Revenue
417.6 m USD
+17.2% YoY
Net income
15.7 m USD
−8.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.37
−9.8% YoY
net / operating
3.8% / 5.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue316.9 m328.7 m320.9 m356.5 m367.4 m400.5 m366.7 m417.6 m
Operating income-18.0 m10.2 m2.8 m22.4 m18.5 m18.7 m-2.6 m20.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation25.7 m25.8 m26.5 m26.5 m27.1 m26.4 m29.1 m30.7 m
Interest expense498.0 k512.0 k563.0 k548.0 k504.0 k544.0 k548.0 k553.0 k
Pre-tax income-15.0 m12.9 m5.3 m24.7 m21.1 m21.5 m-439.0 k22.8 m
Income tax-3.9 m3.6 m737.0 k6.2 m7.4 m8.5 m-145.0 k5.9 m
Net income-10.2 m8.7 m4.2 m17.1 m12.5 m11.8 m-290.0 k15.7 m
Diluted EPS-0.260.20 ≈0.100.410.300.28 ≈-0.010.37
Operating cash flow41.9 m ≈45.1 m31.2 m65.0 m ≈63.0 m ≈63.1 m8.5 m57.0 m ≈
Capex34.8 m ≈34.7 m29.4 m38.1 m ≈39.3 m ≈59.2 m47.2 m57.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 10 percentile of its own 21-quarter history (min 60.2, median 153.3, max 6,140.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue459.3 m594.5 m522.9 m739.9 m900.5 m1.1 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn
Revenue YoY+28.0%+29.4%−12.1%+41.5%+21.7%+20.8%+15.2%+15.4%
Net income15.2 m19.8 m-42.2 m-4.6 m-21.2 m20.3 m10.2 m45.7 m
Net income YoYunavailable+30.6%−312.6%unavailableunavailableunavailable−49.6%+348.0%
Diluted EPS0.520.61-1.14-0.12-0.540.480.241.09
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+17.3%−286.9%unavailableunavailableunavailable−50.0%+354.2%
net %3.3%3.3%-8.1%-0.6%-2.4%1.9%0.8%3.2%
Free cash flow-2.1 m-16.7 m-31.7 m-43.1 m-65.8 m-14.0 m35.7 m56.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
360.1 m USD
Financial debt
247.7 m USD
Net debt
-112.4 m USD
Equity
553.7 m USD
Total assets
1.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.45x
Current ratio
1.76x
ROE
8.7%
ROA
2.5%
FCF margin
3.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
5.9 m
2024
3.0 m
2025
62.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
91.2 m
2024
102.5 m
2025
106.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
97.2 m ≈
2024
105.5 m ≈
2025
169.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
1.7 m
2024
2.0 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
17.0 m
2024
14.2 m
2025
72.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-4.0 m
2024
3.4 m
2025
22.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
20.3 m
2024
10.2 m
2025
45.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.48
2024
0.24
2025
1.09

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
43.9 m
2024
44.2 m
2025
41.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
224.7 m
2024
320.7 m
2025
360.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
16.8 m
2024
19.7 m
2025
33.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
5.4 m
2024
6.0 m
2025
7.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
334.4 m
2024
368.2 m
2025
430.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
531.0 m
2024
551.6 m
2025
625.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
22.3 m
2024
23.6 m
2025
24.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
245.6 m
2024
246.7 m
2025
247.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
164.1 m
2024
187.3 m
2025
244.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
469.4 m
2024
493.6 m
2025
553.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
132.1 m
2024
171.2 m
2025
222.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
146.2 m
2024
135.5 m
2025
165.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-14.0 m ≈
2024
35.7 m ≈
2025
56.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-132.3 m
2024
-66.1 m
2025
-165.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-5.7 m
2024
-9.0 m
2025
-17.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
15.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
17.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
22.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
1,957.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
348.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
354.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
58.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
EBIT margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
Net margin
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
FCF margin
-0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026

Returns

ROE
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
ROA
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
ROIC
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
ROCE
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-59.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Interest coverage
25.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Quick ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Cash ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
191.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
Capital expenditure
203.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
Free cash flow
-11.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
FCF conversion
-29.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
Cash conversion
113.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
7 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
0 USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Enterprise value
-59.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
77.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
Earnings yield
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
P/S
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
-0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
EV/EBIT
-1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
EV/Sales
-0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
unavailable
insufficient data
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 66 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

72.82 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 0 USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
0 USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
77.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
-0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
ROE
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Jul 2026
Net margin
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Jul 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 01 Jul 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 01 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Aug 2026
verified 1315derived 82

Score by group

  • Balance sheet94
  • Growth100
  • Valuation60
  • Quality32

Estimated value range

Low
13.00
USD per share
Mid
35.73
USD per share
High
58.23
USD per share
Price: 72.82 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -50.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -103.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.00 – 58.23 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · insufficient data
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/E13.00 – 58.23 (Mid 35.73)
    4 companies used · median multiple 37.9x · quartiles 13.8x – 61.8x
    BROS, CHA, SBUX, WEN
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 66/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality7.8%45 (on a fixed band)14%
Net margin · Quality2.6%43 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality-29.5%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth17.1%100 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.4x100 (on a fixed band)14%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet25.8x100 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.7x72 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation77.2x20 (vs peers)14%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation-0.4x100 (on a fixed band)14%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality32/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

SHAKE SHACK INC. (SHAK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-07-01.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 15.4%; net margin 2.6%; ROE 7.7%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.

The estimated value range is 13.00–58.23 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 35.73 USD, the price of 72.82 USD leaves a potential of -50.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -103.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 17.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
  • Interest coverage: 25.8x
  • Current ratio: 1.7x
  • EV/EBITDA: -0.4x

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -29.5%
  • P/E (TTM): 77.2x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
77.2x
vertical median 61.3x
above median (+26.0%)
EV/EBITDA
-0.4x
vertical median 21.3x
below median (−101.7%)
P/S
0.0x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−100.0%)
P/B
0.0x
vertical median 5.4x
below median (−100.0%)
ROE
7.7%
vertical median 7.8%
at median
Net margin
2.6%
vertical median 4.9%
below median (−47.9%)
EBIT margin
3.6%
vertical median 7.8%
below median (−54.0%)
Revenue YoY
15.4%
vertical median -0.2%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.4x
vertical median 1.5x
below median (−123.3%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 5.3%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SBUXStarbucks Corporation125.1 bn63.2—5.2%+2.8%+26% / +10%
BROSDutch Bros Inc.6.8 bn61.312.9%4.9%+27.9%−25% / +65%
CHAChagee Holdings Ltd.2.4 bn14.516.0%9.1%unavailable−15% / unavailable
WENWendy's Co1.5 bn11.6108.0%5.7%−3.1%−9% / −59%
CNNECannae Holdings, Inc.792.4 m—-13.3%-38.2%−6.4%+13% / +2%
SDOTSadot Group Inc.7.8 m—-486.7%-24.1%−64.8%−90% / −99%
BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.—190.72.8%0.7%+24.5%−52% / unavailable
SHAKShake Shack Inc.—77.27.7%2.6%+15.4%−23% / +22%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SHAK from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) operates a US chain of fine-casual restaurants serving premium versions of American classics such as Angus beef burgers. The company is trying to accelerate growth through new restaurants, digital channels and menu innovation, at a time when same-Shack sales and guest traffic are under pressure. About 703 Shacks were in operation at the end of the first half of 2026.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Strong, recognized brand with a loyal customer base and a clear identity tied to ingredient quality.
    • Solid growth in new-Shack sales and total revenue in 2025 and in the first half of 2026.
    • Well-developed digital platform, with a significant share of sales made through the app and website.

    Weaknesses

    • Guest traffic declined in 2025, and sales growth depended largely on higher prices.
    • Margins are sensitive to beef and labor costs, which limits flexibility.
    • The geographic concentration of company-operated Shacks makes results dependent on the economies of certain regions.

    Opportunities

    • Expansion into new US markets and selectively abroad through licensed partners.
    • Stronger loyalty through rewards, personalized offers and kiosks.
    • Limited-time menu innovation, which can attract guests and raise visit frequency.

    Threats

    • Intense competition in fast-food and fine-casual could pressure prices and traffic.
    • Rising labor, food and energy costs could reduce margins.
    • Food safety incidents and reputational damage can quickly erode customer trust.

    Risks

    • Dependence on opening new restaurantshigh

      Growth depends on finding suitable locations and opening them on time and within budget. Delays or higher costs could affect results.

    • Declining guest traffichigh

      If guests visit less often, sales growth could depend too heavily on prices, which has limits.

    • Commodity costsmedium

      Higher beef and other food costs could reduce restaurant margins, especially if menu prices cannot be adjusted.

    • Labor costsmedium

      Wages and personnel costs could rise, and recruiting and retaining staff could become harder.

    • Food safety and reputationmedium

      A serious food-related incident could affect sales and the brand's reputation over the long term.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If new restaurants keep reaching their expected sales, revenue growth could support the company's expansion.
    • If traffic improves and the loyalty program raises visit frequency, margins could benefit.
    • A strong brand and digital channels could help build a more stable customer base.

    What would break the thesis

    • If traffic stays weak and growth still depends on prices, demand could be more fragile than the headline figures suggest.
    • Costs for beef, staff and locations could limit margins, especially during periods of inflation.
    • Large investments in new restaurants and digital could fail to generate adequate returns if competition intensifies.

    What to watch

    • Trend in same-Shack sales and guest trafficQ3 2026
    • Pace of company-operated openings against the long-term target2027
    • Restaurant-level margin trend and beef cost pressureQ3 2026
    • Digital sales share and effect of the loyalty programnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Shake Shack serves modern and elevated versions of American classics, with a focus on premium ingredients, made-to-order Angus beef burgers, crispy chicken, hand-spun milkshakes and house-made lemonades, plus beer and wine. The company started in 2004 from Madison Square Park in New York and has become a brand with a devoted following, combining fine-dining roots with a casual setting. The model is mixed: company-operated restaurants and licensed restaurants, which generate licensing revenue from license fees and territory fees.

    The financial structure rests mainly on sales from company-operated Shacks, which represented 96.3% of total revenue in fiscal 2025. Licensing revenue, though small, grew faster in 2025, and its share remains limited. The company describes its growth strategy as opening new Shacks, growing same-Shack sales, improving the guest experience and innovating the menu with limited-time offerings.

    Digital channels have become an important part of the model: the app, website and third-party delivery platforms accounted for 40.8% of Shack sales in the second quarter of 2026. The company invests in loyalty, personalized offers and kiosks, aiming to turn occasional visits into recurring habits.

    Segments

    Company-operated Shacks

    These generate the company's main sales and are the primary source of restaurant revenue. Shack sales rose 15.2% in 2025, mainly due to the 45 new company-operated Shacks opened, while guest traffic declined slightly.

    Licensed Shacks

    Licensed partners operate international Shacks and some domestic ones, and Shake Shack earns license fees from their sales. Licensing revenue is smaller than company-operated sales but is tied to international expansion.

    Market context

    The market is that of quick-service and fine-casual restaurants in the United States and a few other countries, where consumers choose between affordable chains and premium concepts. The company positions itself between the two, and its market share is small compared with the large fast-food chains, based on the information in the documents provided.

    Demand depends on guest traffic, menu prices, food and labor costs, and the ability to find new locations. The company is watching traffic closely, since in 2025 sales growth came mainly from prices rather than from more guests.

    Trends

    • Digital expansion and deliverymixed

      Digital sales are growing quickly and could support visit frequency over the long term if the loyalty program works. Third-party delivery fees could however reduce margins.

    • Higher menu pricesmixed

      Higher prices supported same-Shack sales, but if guests become more price sensitive, traffic could decline further.

    • Beef and commodity costsheadwind

      Rising costs for beef and other ingredients have pressured restaurant margins, and the effect could persist if prices stay high.

    • Expansion into new US marketstailwind

      Opening Shacks outside the Northeast could widen the customer base, but newer markets may have lower brand awareness.

    Competitive position

    Shake Shack competes with burger chains, quick-service restaurants and fine-casual restaurants for the same guests and locations. Its advantages are brand identity and ingredient quality, but higher product costs may limit appeal to price-sensitive guests.

    Competition for good sites in commercial areas and for labor talent is intense. If Shake Shack cannot maintain its differentiation, pressure on prices and traffic could increase.

    • Chipotle Mexican GrillCMG

      Fine-casual chain with a similar positioning, competing for the same guests in the premium quick segment.

    • McDonald'sMCD

      Leader in quick service, with affordable prices and a global network, competing for the same dining occasions.

    • Wendy'sWEN

      Quick-service burger chain competing directly in the burger category.

    • Independent fine-casual restaurants

      Local and regional restaurants offering premium ingredients and a similar atmosphere, especially in large cities.

    News & filings

    SEC filings

    • Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
    • Current report05 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report12 Jun 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report11 Jun 2026
      Shareholder vote
    • Current report02 Jun 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report07 May 2026
    • Current report07 May 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report07 May 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Proxy statement29 Apr 2026
    • Current report01 Apr 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Shake Shack Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-01 · SEC / Shake Shack Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Shake Shack Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.