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olivLaw · US equity research

Dutch Bros Inc. BROS

Retail-Eating & Drinking Places · SIC 5810 · Vertical: Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810)

43.99USD+0.94% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) operates and franchises drive-thru coffee shops with customized beverages, growing its network and sales quickly. In the first half of 2026 revenue rose sharply, and the company raised its full-year guidance, suggesting expansion could continue if demand holds.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) stock was 43.99 USD (+0.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.8 bn USD, P/E 61.3 on diluted EPS of 0.72 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.58, 52-week range 37.28–73.31 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 550.9 m USD (+32.5% YoY), net income of 37.4 m USD (+46.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.28 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.8 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2024
P/E (TTM)
61.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.72 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.63%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.58
Volatility (1y) 51%
52-week range
37.2873.31

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
58.4
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
37.46 – 45.70
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.79 · band width 19.8%
SMA 50 / 200
42.10 / 53.10
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.58 / 0.13
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+15.1%−1.1%+16.2 pp—
3 months−33.0%−0.5%−32.6 pp—
6 months−25.5%+4.4%−29.9 pp—
Year to date−28.1%+12.3%−40.5 pp—
1 year−20.3%+13.5%−33.8 pp−14.8%
3 years+66.1%+76.4%−10.3 pp+1.7%
5 years−35.3%+63.7%−99.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−49.1%
01 Jul 2026 → 12 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−66.4%
08 Nov 2021 → 27 Sept 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
−8.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
550.9 m USD
+32.5% YoY
Net income
37.4 m USD
+46.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.28
+40.0% YoY
net / operating
6.8% / 12.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue338.2 m342.8 m355.2 m415.8 m423.6 m443.6 m464.4 m550.9 m
Cost of revenue248.2 m254.8 m265.2 m295.8 m316.8 m336.5 m356.9 m399.8 m
SG&A57.5 m72.2 m58.9 m65.4 m65.3 m73.2 m73.2 m80.7 m
Operating income32.5 m15.8 m31.1 m54.7 m41.5 m34.0 m34.3 m70.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation23.9 m25.5 m26.4 m27.9 m ≈29.1 m ≈31.7 m38.3 m35.5 m ≈
Income tax4.7 m1.1 m1.5 m7.2 m7.7 m2.0 m3.3 m12.6 m
Net income12.6 m3.6 m15.4 m25.6 m17.5 m21.4 m16.1 m37.4 m
Diluted EPS0.110.03 ≈0.130.200.140.17 ≈0.130.28
Operating cash flow83.5 m ≈62.2 m36.9 m89.9 m ≈89.1 m ≈79.6 m84.7 m112.2 m ≈
Capex57.1 m ≈42.8 m45.6 m54.2 m ≈70.2 m ≈71.2 m57.0 m72.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 12-quarter history (min 79.4, median 149.4, max 1,008.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue238.4 m327.4 m497.9 m739.0 m965.8 m1.3 bn1.6 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+37.4%+52.1%+48.4%+30.7%+32.6%+27.9%
Net income00-12.7 m-4.8 m1.7 m35.3 m79.8 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+1,952.3%+126.5%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-0.28-0.090.030.340.64
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+1,033.3%+88.2%
net %0.0%0.0%-2.5%-0.6%0.2%2.8%4.9%
Free cash flow17.2 m13.0 m-38.1 m-128.0 m-88.5 m24.7 m54.4 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
269.4 m USD
Financial debt
200.2 m USD
Net debt
-69.2 m USD
Equity
897.9 m USD
Total assets
3.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.22x
Current ratio
1.49x
ROE
9.6%
ROA
2.9%
FCF margin
3.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
965.8 m
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
714.5 m
2024
940.9 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
251.3 m ≈
2024
340.1 m ≈
2025
423.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
205.1 m
2024
234.0 m
2025
262.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
46.2 m
2024
106.1 m
2025
161.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
69.1 m
2024
93.0 m
2025
115.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
115.4 m ≈
2024
199.1 m ≈
2025
276.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
16.9 m
2024
84.9 m
2025
135.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
7.0 m
2024
18.4 m
2025
18.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.7 m
2024
35.3 m
2025
79.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.03
2024
0.34
2025
0.64

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
62.1 m
2024
104.1 m
2025
125.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
133.5 m
2024
293.4 m
2025
269.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
9.1 m
2024
10.6 m
2025
18.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
47.0 m
2024
36.5 m
2025
48.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
205.3 m
2024
357.9 m
2025
357.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
542.4 m
2024
684.0 m
2025
824.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
21.6 m
2024
21.6 m
2025
21.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
5.4 m
2024
2.9 m
2025
1.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
30.0 m
2024
32.2 m
2025
37.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
4.5 m
2024
17.3 m
2025
3.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
93.2 m
2024
219.8 m
2025
196.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
138.1 m
2024
203.1 m
2025
240.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
675.9 m
2024
763.9 m
2025
897.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
139.9 m
2024
246.4 m
2025
295.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
228.5 m
2024
221.7 m
2025
241.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-88.5 m ≈
2024
24.7 m ≈
2025
54.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-227.3 m
2024
-212.1 m
2025
-241.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
200.7 m
2024
125.4 m
2025
-78.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
27.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
30.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
38.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
51.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
126.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
88.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
120.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
25.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
16.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
12.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
17.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-70.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
365.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
270.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
95.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
102.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
116.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
3 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
11 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
10 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
4 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
6.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
73.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
61.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
8.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
21.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
37.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
3.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
71.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 65 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

43.99 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
61.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
8.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
21.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
12.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
27.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 789derived 65

Score by group

  • Balance sheet85
  • Growth100
  • Valuation26
  • Quality88

Estimated value range

Low
9.89
USD per share
Mid
27.87
USD per share
High
47.86
USD per share
Price: 43.99 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -36.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -57.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.89 – 47.86 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/E9.89 – 47.86 (Mid 27.87)
    4 companies used · median multiple 38.8x · quartiles 13.8x – 66.7x
    CHA, SBUX, SHAK, WEN
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 65/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality17.3%100 (on a fixed band)14%
Net margin · Quality4.9%57 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality102.9%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth30.4%100 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.2x100 (on a fixed band)14%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.4x46 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation61.3x60 (vs peers)14%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation21.3x0 (on a fixed band)14%
FCF yield · Valuation1.4%18 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality88/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation26/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 27.9%; net margin 4.9%; ROE 12.9%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.

The estimated value range is 9.89–47.86 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 27.87 USD, the price of 43.99 USD leaves a potential of -36.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -57.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 65/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 17.3%
  • FCF conversion: 102.9%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 30.4%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.2x

What contradicts it

  • EV/EBITDA: 21.3x
  • FCF yield: 1.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
61.3x
vertical median 63.2x
at median
EV/EBITDA
21.3x
vertical median —
P/S
3.6x
vertical median 1.3x
above median (+173.0%)
P/B
8.5x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+266.5%)
ROE
12.9%
vertical median 5.2%
above median (+146.3%)
Net margin
4.9%
vertical median 2.6%
above median (+91.8%)
EBIT margin
9.6%
vertical median 3.6%
above median (+168.1%)
Revenue YoY
27.9%
vertical median -0.2%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.2x
vertical median 1.5x
below median (−114.7%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 5.3%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SBUXStarbucks Corporation125.1 bn63.2—5.2%+2.8%+26% / +10%
BROSDutch Bros Inc.6.8 bn61.312.9%4.9%+27.9%−20% / +66%
CHAChagee Holdings Ltd.2.4 bn14.516.0%9.1%unavailable−15% / unavailable
WENWendy's Co1.5 bn11.6108.0%5.7%−3.1%−9% / −59%
CNNECannae Holdings, Inc.792.4 m—-13.3%-38.2%−6.4%+13% / +2%
SDOTSadot Group Inc.7.8 m—-486.7%-24.1%−64.8%−90% / −99%
BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.—190.72.8%0.7%+24.5%−52% / unavailable
SHAKShake Shack Inc.—77.27.7%2.6%+15.4%−17% / +20%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BROS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
23.99
Total return -45% · Per year -45%
42.22
Total return -4% · Per year -4%
63.33
Total return 44% · Per year 44%
3 years
28.46
Total return -35% · Per year -14%
55.84
Total return 27% · Per year 8%
91.20
Total return 107% · Per year 28%
5 years
33.76
Total return -23% · Per year -5%
73.85
Total return 68% · Per year 11%
131.33
Total return 199% · Per year 24%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 13.96
  • Net margin± 9.77
  • Annual revenue growth± 7.29
  • Annual dilution± 0.82

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) operates and franchises drive-thru coffee shops with customized beverages, growing its network and sales quickly. In the first half of 2026 revenue rose sharply, and the company raised its full-year guidance, suggesting expansion could continue if demand holds.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The brand has a strong people culture and a differentiated service experience, supported by a loyalty program with high adoption 1.
  • Same shop sales growth has continued for several consecutive quarters, indicating stable demand 3.
  • The drive-thru model and order ahead allow high service speed, supporting transactions during busy periods 1.

Weaknesses

  • The network is geographically concentrated in the western United States, exposing the company to local conditions in that region 1.
  • Company-operated shop margins declined in some periods because of coffee and labor costs 1.
  • The growth strategy depends heavily on opening new shops, so a delay could affect results 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion eastward and into new markets could add volume, especially through company-operated shops 1.
  • The morning food offering and packaged consumer goods could attract new customers and raise visit frequency 1.
  • If the revised 2026 guidance holds, the company could convert sales growth into higher profitability 3.

Threats

  • A decline in discretionary consumer spending or rising inflation could reduce demand for premium beverages 1.
  • Competitors with greater resources could copy the drive-thru and digital ordering model and take some customers 1.
  • Concerns about the health effects of coffee, sugar and caffeine could reduce demand for some products 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on discretionary spendingmedium

    Sales depend on consumer spending, which could decline if inflation or economic confidence weakens 1.

  • Geographic concentrationmedium

    Most shops are located in the western United States, and local events can significantly affect results 1.

  • Labor and coffee costshigh

    Minimum wage increases and higher coffee prices could compress margins if prices cannot be adjusted in time 1.

  • Execution risk of expansionmedium

    Successful opening of new shops and entry into new markets depend on conditions not always under the company's control 1.

  • Health perception of productslow

    Public and regulatory attention to sugar, caffeine and other ingredients could reduce demand for energy and sweetened beverages 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If same shop sales keep growing and the guidance holds, the company could sustain revenue growth above the industry average 3.
  • The loyalty program and drive-thru model could reinforce the brand's competitive advantage in existing and new markets 1.
  • If new food products and order ahead attract morning customers, visit frequency could rise substantially 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If discretionary spending cools, demand for premium beverages could fall faster than the company expects 1.
  • Cost pressures for labor and coffee could reduce margins if prices cannot be raised without affecting customers 1.
  • If expansion into new regions does not deliver the expected returns, investment in new shops could slow long-term earnings growth 1.

What to watch

  • Revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026Q3 2026
  • Pace of shop openings against the target of at least 1852026
  • Trend in company-operated shop contribution marginQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

The business model relies on the drive-thru, which accounts for about 85% of activity, with the rest served at walk-up windows 1. The Dutch Rewards loyalty program generated about 72% of transactions in 2025 1, and order ahead was launched in 2024 to increase speed and reach morning customers 1.

The company aims to grow by opening new shops, improving transactions through food, order ahead and marketing, and raising shop-level margins 1. Results for the second quarter of 2026 show total revenues up 32.5% 3, and these results depend on continued demand for new products.

Segments

Company-operated shops

This segment generated revenue of 1.5 billion USD in 2025 1, with same shop sales up 7.4% 1. The contribution margin was 28.9% 1, and the company's long-term target is about 30% 1.

Franchising and other

The franchising segment includes royalty revenue and advertising fund contributions, calculated on franchisee sales 1. This revenue has grown more slowly than revenue from directly operated shops, so part of the growth depends on existing franchisees expanding 1.

Market context

Demand depends on discretionary consumer spending, which can be affected by inflation, gasoline prices and consumer confidence 1. Minimum wage increases in the states where the company operates could pressure margins if prices cannot be adjusted enough 1.

Competitive position

Dutch Bros competes with national, regional and local coffee chains, quick service restaurants and convenience stores, as well as coffee delivery services 1. Some competitors have greater financial resources and longer brand history in certain markets 1.

The main risk is that rivals adopt the company's drive-thru and digital ordering model, which could draw customers away 1. The company says its differentiation through people culture and service experience remains its main advantage 1.

  • StarbucksSBUX

    Global coffee chain competing directly in the coffee beverage segment, cited among competitors in the filing.

  • National and regional coffee chains

    Coffee companies with longer history in some cities, cited as better established in markets Dutch Bros is entering.

  • Drive-thru quick service restaurants

    Fast-food chains with drive-thru windows competing for the same morning and afternoon customers.

  • Coffee delivery services

    Platforms and delivery services that increase the alternatives available to coffee consumers.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Dutch Bros Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Dutch Bros Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Dutch Bros Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.