olivLaw · US equity research
AerCap Holdings N.V. AER
Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC · SIC 7359 · Vertical: Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC (SIC 7359)
AerCap Holdings N.V. is the global leader in aircraft leasing, with a portfolio of roughly 3,500 aircraft, engines and helicopters that were owned, on order or managed, along with cargo, spare-engine and helicopter activities. The company reported net income of 3.8 billion USD attributable to AerCap Holdings N.V. in 2025, which makes it relevant to how the aviation industry finances its fleets.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) stock was 165.72 USD (+2.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 27.7 bn USD, P/E 7.8 on diluted EPS of 21.30 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.70%, beta 0.87, 52-week range 130.99–165.72 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 76.0
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 136.02 – 164.89
- above the upper band · %B 1.03 · band width 19.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 146.70 / 144.88
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.67 / 2.71
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.7% | −1.1% | +16.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.8% | −0.5% | +7.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +9.7% | +4.4% | +5.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.3% | +12.3% | +3.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +26.6% | +13.5% | +13.1 pp | +36.3% |
| 3 years | +153.5% | +76.4% | +77.1 pp | +30.7% |
| 5 years | +145.5% | +63.7% | +81.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 63 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 5.4, median 7.4, max 9.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.8 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −4.7% | +2.9% | −9.0% | +16.3% | +34.3% | +8.1% | +5.5% | +6.5% |
| Net income | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | -298.6 m | 1.0 bn | -726.0 m | 3.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | −5.6% | +12.8% | −126.1% | unavailable | −172.6% | unavailable | −33.1% | +78.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.83 | 8.43 | -2.34 | 6.71 | -3.02 | 13.78 | 10.79 | 21.30 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +6.2% | +23.4% | −127.8% | unavailable | −145.0% | unavailable | −21.7% | +97.4% |
| net % | 21.2% | 23.2% | -6.6% | 19.2% | -10.4% | 41.4% | 26.2% | 44.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 43.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- 42.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 18.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 71.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.38x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 21.1%
- ROA
- 5.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 242.2 m | 317.9 m | 399.5 m | 464.1 m | 488.9 m | 545.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | -314.6 m | 1.1 bn | -1.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -17.2 m | 162.5 m | -164.1 m | 291.1 m | 323.7 m | 555.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -298.6 m | 1.0 bn | -726.0 m | 3.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.34 | 6.71 | -3.02 | 13.78 | 10.79 | 21.30 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 127.7 m | 149.0 m | 240.5 m | 227.7 m | 194.5 m | 176.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1.15 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 0 | 48.6 m | 55.9 m | 85.7 m | 90.9 m | 112.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 35.2 bn | 57.8 bn | 55.2 bn | 57.1 bn | 58.6 bn | 57.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 42.0 bn | 74.6 bn | 69.7 bn | 71.3 bn | 71.4 bn | 71.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 28.7 bn | 50.2 bn | 46.5 bn | 46.5 bn | 45.3 bn | 43.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 33.1 bn | 57.9 bn | 53.5 bn | 54.7 bn | 54.3 bn | 53.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 8.9 bn | 16.6 bn | 16.2 bn | 16.6 bn | 17.2 bn | 18.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 130.4 m | 245.4 m | 245.9 m | 202.5 m | 186.8 m | 166.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -712.3 m | -23.5 bn | -2.2 bn | -3.2 bn | -3.7 bn | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.2 bn | 20.2 bn | -3.2 bn | -2.0 bn | -2.1 bn | -3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 0 | 0 | 140.0 m | 192.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 27.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 210.03 – 453.68 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E210.03 – 453.68 (Mid 340.14)8 companies used · median multiple 16.0x · quartiles 9.9x – 21.3xEQPT, KPLT, MGRC, PRG, SUNB, TRTN-PA, UPBD, URI
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate15.15 – 20.38 (Mid 17.38)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 44.0% | 90 (vs peers) | 20% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.7% | 56 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.8x | 78 (vs peers) | 33% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.7% | 10 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial56/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial90/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial10/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial78/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.5%; net margin 44.0%; ROE 21.1%.
The estimated value range is 210.03–453.68 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 340.14 USD, the price of 165.72 USD leaves a potential of 105.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 51.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 44.0%
- P/E (TTM): 7.8x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.7%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC (SIC 7359) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | 69.6 bn | 24.4 | 30.6% | 16.3% | +4.9% | +38% / +136% |
| SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. | 33.1 bn | 23.8 | 18.2% | 12.1% | +3.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AERAerCap Holdings N.V. | 27.7 bn | 7.8 | 21.1% | 44.0% | +6.5% | +27% / +153% |
| MGRCMcGRATH RENTCORP | 3.2 bn | 20.5 | 12.9% | 16.8% | +3.7% | +29% / +31% |
| TRTN-PATriton International Limited | 2.5 bn | 4.9 | 18.8% | 854.3% | +22.4% | −4% / −4% |
| CTOSCustom Truck One Source, Inc. | 2.3 bn | 76.7 | 3.7% | 1.4% | +7.9% | +59% / +74% |
| PRGProg Holdings, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 10.8 | 20.0% | 5.5% | +0.4% | +39% / +46% |
| UPBDUpbound Group, Inc. | 1.4 bn | 12.7 | 15.5% | 2.4% | +8.7% | +35% / −17% |
| EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc | 1.2 bn | 19.2 | 7.4% | 1.3% | +16.3% | unavailable / unavailable |
| KPLTKatapult Holdings, Inc. | 50.0 m | 7.2 | — | 5.4% | +18.0% | +62% / −9% |
| EHGOEShallGo Inc. | — | — | -117.3% | -69.4% | +21.1% | −54% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AER from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 105.63 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 186.56 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 280.74 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 107.07 Total return -34% · Per year -13% | 212.34 Total return 31% · Per year 9% | 350.20 Total return 114% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 108.53 Total return -32% · Per year -7% | 241.69 Total return 50% · Per year 8% | 436.84 Total return 170% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 53.09
- Net margin± 37.16
- Annual revenue growth± 29.88
- Annual dilution± 3.12
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 12 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (23 Sept 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026), 6-K (29 Jul 2026), 6-K (07 Jul 2026).
In brief
AerCap Holdings N.V. is the global leader in aircraft leasing, with a portfolio of roughly 3,500 aircraft, engines and helicopters that were owned, on order or managed, along with cargo, spare-engine and helicopter activities. The company reported net income of 3.8 billion USD attributable to AerCap Holdings N.V. in 2025, which makes it relevant to how the aviation industry finances its fleets.
SWOT
Strengths
- Very large and diversified portfolio of aircraft, engines and helicopters, with high utilization of the owned fleet.
- Long track record of acquisitions and integration, including ILFC and GECAS, which the company describes as a key competitive advantage.
- Diversified global funding access and a credit rating upgraded to BBB+ by all three major agencies.
Weaknesses
- Concentration in the aviation industry, which is sensitive to economic cycles and the health of airline customers.
- Exposure to unusual recoveries linked to the Ukraine conflict, whose share of the result is significant and hard to forecast.
- Reliance on interest-bearing financing, exposed to rate changes even though part of it is hedged with derivatives.
Opportunities
- Demand for new, efficient aircraft could support new long-term lease contracts.
- Expansion of cargo activity and sale-and-leaseback transactions could diversify revenue sources.
- A share repurchase programme and dividends could return value to shareholders if results remain solid.
Threats
- Financial difficulties at customers could lead to contract restructurings and repossessions of assets.
- Sanctions and geopolitical restrictions could affect asset recovery and access to certain markets.
- Regulatory changes or shifts in demand for specific aircraft types could reduce residual values.
Risks
- Customer financial difficultieshigh
If lessees fail to meet their obligations, the company could need to restructure contracts or repossess assets, with significant costs and delays.
- Exposure to the Ukraine conflicthigh
Losses and recoveries linked to aircraft in Russia had a major effect on the result, and the outcome of litigation and recoveries remains uncertain.
- Interest rate riskmedium
Most financing carries interest, and part of the variable-rate exposure is hedged but not entirely, which could affect financing costs.
- Residual value riskmedium
The value of aircraft at lease end depends on the market, technical condition and demand for the type, which could change returns.
- Concentration in aviationlow
The business depends on conditions in commercial aviation and on external events such as economic or political crises that affect air traffic.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A global leadership position in aircraft and engine leasing, with a young fleet and high utilization, could support stable revenue if demand stays solid.
- Large acquisitions and their historical integration could provide economies of scale and access to assets that are hard to replicate.
- An improved credit rating and diversified funding access could lower the long-term cost of capital.
What would break the thesis
- Unusual recoveries in 2025 contributed significantly to profit, and without them the result could be much lower.
- Concentration in aviation and in a few large customers could amplify the impact of a crisis in the airline sector.
- Higher financing costs or lower residual values at lease end could compress margins over the long term.
What to watch
- Fleet utilization rate and the level of lease rates on new contracts2026
- Pace of deliveries of existing orders and of new aircraft purchases2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 12 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (23 Sept 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026), 6-K (29 Jul 2026), 6-K (07 Jul 2026).
The business
In 2025 the company executed 705 aviation asset transactions, and the factors influencing lease revenue include the contracted lease rate, the number of aircraft on lease and the lessee's performance 1. Financing is central: in 2025 AerCap arranged 13.2 billion USD of financing through capital markets notes, bank debt and revolving credit facilities 1.
Managing lease expiries and residual value is essential, since the company seeks to reduce the time its assets are not generating revenue through lease extensions and early re-leasing 1. The model relies on direct purchases from manufacturers, sale-and-leaseback transactions and global customer relationships to keep utilization high 1.
Market context
Trends
- Demand for new, efficient aircrafttailwind
The company bought new-technology, fuel-efficient aircraft in 2025, which could support long-term lease rates if demand stays solid 1.
- Cost of financingheadwind
Debt costs and derivative instruments influence interest expense, and a rise in rates could compress margins if it is not covered through hedging 1.
- Improved credit ratingtailwind
AerCap received an upgrade to BBB+ from Fitch and is now rated BBB+ by all three major rating agencies, which could ease access to funding 1.
Competitive position
The source does not detail direct competitors, but it names earlier lessors such as GPA and ILFC that helped establish operating leasing in aviation 1. The company supports its position through its scale and large acquisitions such as GECAS 1.
- Guinness Peat Aviation (GPA)
Historic aircraft lessor named in the source as a pioneer of aviation leasing, with no comparable financial data in the document provided.
- International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC)
Historic aircraft lessor, later acquired by AerCap, cited in the source as part of the sector's consolidation.
- GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS)
Aviation leasing business acquired by AerCap in 2021, described in the source as one of the largest transactions in aviation leasing history.
- Milestone Aviation Group
Part of AerCap; mentioned for context in the helicopter segment rather than treated as a separate rival.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- AerCap Holdings (AER) Inspires Confidence with 100th Boeing 787 DeliveryYahoo Finance — News · 05 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is AerCap Holdings N. A (AER) a Sustainable Growth Opportunity?Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 05 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Mar 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)12 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / AerCap Holdings N.V. · 12 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.